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VCE Politics Data - Coggle Diagram

- - - - The "expansion of the NATO infrastructure" is "unacceptable" for Russia. - Vladimir Putin
      - Ukraine obtained Enhanced Opportunities Partner Status with NATO in 2020
      - Ukraine applied for membership to the EU in 2022
    - - 29% of Ukrainians speak Russian as a 1st language
      - 17% of Ukrainians identify as ethnically Russian
      - "Russians and Ukrainians [are] one people - a single whole". - Vladimir Putin
  - - - Maintaining sovereignty
    - - Upholding the view of their as a great power
    - - Maintaining NATO's (and thus the US's) power over Europe
    - - Maintaining sovereignty/prosperity
    - - Preventing civilian casualties
  - - - Controlling Ukraine
      - Reclaiming influence over Eastern Europe
    - - Returning to 1991 borders
      - Closer ties with west
    - - Maintaining NATO sovereignty/power
    - - Preventing Russian control of Eastern Europe
      - Regaining access to Russian oil and gas
    - - Regaining grain access
    - - Ending the use of cluster munitions
  - - - $350 million authorised day after the war began
      - Total of $200 billion by 2024
      - 31 M1 Abrams Tanks
    - - Total of $100 billion by 2024
      - 12 Leopard-2 Tanks from Germany
    - - Called for "full accountability" for Russian actions
    - - ICJ Response
        
        Cases relating to Russia's war justification
      - UNSC responses
        
        2 proposals, both vetoed by Russia
      - UNGA responses
        
        Proposal co-authored by USA and Albania
  - - - 2024 Swiss Summit
        
        Lead by Macron
        
        Resulted in the Joint Communique on Peace in Ukraine
        
        Russia wasn't present
        
        92 states & 8 NGOs present
        
        "Kyiv's chance to battle" Russia's "full-scale invasion with full-scale diplomacy." - Zelenskyy
      - 2025 Riyadh Summit
        
        Both Russia & Ukraine present
        
        Lead by USA
    - - ICC
        
        In 2023, the ICC made a warrant for the arrest of Putin, for overseeing the abduction of Ukrainian children.
        
        In 2023, Putin was unable to attend the BRICS summit in South Africa (due to South Africa being a signatory to the Rome Statute), potentially highlighting a reduced ability to create and maintain diplomatic relationships as a result of the arrest warrant.
      - ICJ
        
        The ICJ has ruled against Russia's justification of war, that Ukraine is committing a genocide.
  - - - Before Hamas' attack on Israel in 2023, 8% of CNN's coverage was on Ukraine. After the attack, it dropped to below 1%.
    - - Russia wants current fronts to remain borders
      - Ukraine wants 1991 borders to be reinstated
    - - War is becoming a 'war of attrition'.
      - Ukraine has 37 million people, whereas Russia has 144 million people
  - - - Pros
        
        $200bn already provided by 2024
      - Cons
        
        Internal political divisions
        
        Financial burden of support
        
        Balancing existing alliances
        
        Potential escalation of a conflict with a nuclear power.
    - - Pros
        
        May be able to impose sanctions or authorise a use of force.
      - Cons
        
        Russia is a permanent UNSC member, giving it a veto power.
        
        "Ukrainian soldiers are currently doing at their expense what the UN Security Council should be doing with its voting." - Zelenskyy
  - - - Rate of absolute poverty in Ukraine has increased from 5.5% before the war to over 24% in 2022
      - Global food prices increased by 12.5% in the 2 years preceding Dec 2023
    - - New START Treaty
        
        Extended in 2021
        
        Signed by US and Russia
        
        In Feb 2023, Putin announced that Russia would suspend its participation.
        
        The withdrawal is "deeply unfortunate and irresponsible." - Anthony Blinkin (US Secretary of State)
- - - - USA Alliance
      - "Middle power"
    - - China
        
        Australia has a $120bn export market to China
    - - PNG
      - Indonesia
        
        Partnership in providing training, equipment and funding to work with Indonesian police to assist with various police/security programs.
    - - 'Pacific Step Up'
        
        PacificAus Sports
        
        11 states
        
        4 sports codes
  - - - Pro-AUKUS
      - Anti-AUKUS
        
        AUKUS is a "strategic blunder" - Paul Keating
    - - China
        
        "Fuelling military confrontation"
      - USA
      - Pacific
  - - - w/ China
    - - Australia supplied $26bn in foreign aid to PNG in 2024
  - - - Strengths
        
        2023 Bilateral Security Agreement
        
        "Members of a Pacific Family." - Scott Morrison, 2018
        
        Largest Development Partner
        
        Australia supplied $26bn in foreign aid to PNG in 2024
      - Challenges
        
        Foreign Policy
        
        "Boomerang aid"
        
        Aid to PNG from China would flow "without strings attached".
        
        BRI Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2018
        
        Bougainville
        
        2019 Referendum -> 97.7% in favour of independence
        
        In 2019, Bougainville received an offer of US$1bn from China
  - - - Prioritises existing relationships
        
        US (Security)
        
        China (Economic)
- - - - 37.8 Gt of CO2 released in 2024
    - - 2.3 million ha lost in 2025, equalling 9 Gt of CO2
    - - Responsible for 25% of global GHG emissions
      - Responsible for 29% of USA's GHG emssions
    - - Currently: 6 tons of CO2 per person per year
      - Needs to be 2 - 2.5 tons by 2030
      - Needs to be 0.7 tons by 2050
      - 60% of all emissions occur as a result of consumption
  - - - Increased cooperation
        
        COP summits + Paris Agreement
      - Knowledge Sharing & NGO influence
        
        XR claims to have 1022 groups across 87 states
        
        Global 'die-in' protests in 2019
    - - Increased transportation
        
        Between 2015 and 2050, freight transport emissions will increase 2.3-fold
      - Comparitive Advantage
        
        Developed states move high-emission industries offshore, to developing states with lower environmental protections
  - - - Lula
        
        Between January - July 2024, compared to the same period the year before, deforestation rates had decreased by 43% under Lula
        
        "There is no climate security of the world without a protected Amazon." - Lula
        
        PPCDAm + pledge to end deforestation by 2030.
      - Bolsonaro
        
        57 pieces of anti-environment legislation
        
        IBAMA given to Ruralista controlled Agriculture Department
        
        Halted fines for illegal logging in 2019
        
        Deforestation increased 30% in his first year
      - Ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016
      - Agriculture sector accounts for 48% of emissions, but only 4% of GDP
    - - Biden
        
        Funding
        
        Inflation Reduction Act 2022 included $369bn for the climate
        
        Target
        
        Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement in 2021, pledging a 50 - 52% reduction in emissions (based on 2005 levels) by 2030
        
        "Climate change is an existential threat to our nation and the world." - Joe Biden
      - Trump
        
        Withdrew from Paris Agreement
        
        74 environmental rules rolled back by 2020
        
        "The concept of climate change was created by and for the Chinese." - Donald Trump
    - - Paris Agreement
      - COP
    - - "Non-violent, civil disobedience."
      - 2024 West Gate Bridge Blockade
        
        "Climate change is dangerous, and requires such disruption to raise awareness." - Violet Coco, 2024
        
        Federal Liberal Senator Simon Birmingham doubted the blockade would have any effect beyond "disrupting traffic".
      - 2019 'Die-in' protests
        
        Resulted in UK adopting a legally binding 2050 net zero target, and declaring a climate emergency.
      - 1022 groups across 87 states
  - - - Pros
        
        Coordinated Response
      - Cons
        
        Not enforceable
        
        COP28 (Dubai) concluded that "states need to be doing more".
        
        States decide their NDCs
        
        Between 2020 and 2024, 69 states updated their NDCs, with 5 increasing their commitments, 126 states didn't review their NDCs
  - - - Australia has 127 operative coal mines, including 4 opened since 2022
      - Australia is the world's 2nd largest coal exporter globally ($39.2 billion in 2020-21)
    - - In 2022, global renewable investment was US$1 trillion. This needs to be tripled to have any effect on climate change (The Economist, 2022)
    - - Developed states believe developing states should pay
      - Developing states believe developed states should pay
  - - - 150,000 people exposed to food insecurity at 1.5˚C of warming
      - Recent record-breaking floods in 2005, 2010, 2015-16 and 2023
      - At 1.5˚C of warming, the Amazon is unable to sustain itself as a rainforest and will become a savannah (ecosystem tipping point).
    - - 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced due to climate change's weather effects every year since 2008 (UN High Commissioner for Refugees)
      - Tuvalu may be uninhabitable in 2 - 3 decades (Natano, 2022)
      - There is no explicit protections for climate migrants.
    - - Lake Chad conflicts
        
        Originally provided for 30 million people
        
        Since the 1960s, the lake has diminished by 90% due to overuse and climate change, leading to poverty and conflict.
        
        Poverty has resulted in many people joining paramilitary groups, such as Boko Haram.
        
        3600 people died between 2016 and 2018.
    - - 150,000 people exposed to food insecurity at 1.5˚C of warming in Brazil
- - - - Taiwan
        
        Between 2022 and 2023, there were over 1700 Chinese incursions into Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).
        
        Xi Jinping has reportedly ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027
    - - BRI Investments
      - Reform
    - - Restrictions on Xinjiang
        
        Uyghurs must "practice the core values of socialism" and "adhere to the direction of Sinicization of religions." - Regulations of Religious Affairs of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, 2024
      - SCS municipalities
        
        In 2020, China established 2 municipalities, covering 280 islands and over 2 million km2 of the SCS
      - Taiwan
        
        In 2018, Qantas began referring to Taiwan as 'Taiwan China', as a result of a request by the Civil Aviation Administration of China
        
        "core national interest"
    - - US Relationship
  - - - Taiwan
        
        "core national interest"
        
        Xi Jinping has reportedly ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027
        
        In 2018, Qantas began referring to Taiwan as 'Taiwan China', as a result of a request by the Civil Aviation Administration of China
        
        Between 2022 and 2023, there were over 1700 Chinese incursions into Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).
      - Uyghurs in Xinjiang
    - - Economic Reform
        
        Made in China 2025
        
        New Productive Forces
        
        Dual Circulation Strategy
        
        High Quality Development
      - Green Technology
        
        China has produced 90% of the world's solar panels
        
        In 2023, 40% of China's GDP growth came from renewable sources
    - - w/ USA
        
        Become more acrimonious
        
        Largest trade relationship in the world. Worth $750bn or 40% of global economic output.
        
        There is a trade imbalance of $360bn in China's favour
        
        Trump's 2025 tariffs totalled 145% on Chinese goods. China responded with tariffs of 125% on American goods.
      - Mask Diplomacy
        
        China exported 280 billion single-use masks in 2020
        
        In 2021, China pledged 2 billion doses of COVID vaccines to COVAX, a UN vaccine equity program.
        
        Doses of vaccines worth $45 million to Indonesia
      - Panda Diplomacy
        
        Costs zoos $1 million per year for a breeding pair
        
        In 2019, China planned to have no remaining Pandas in US zoos by 2024, but a deal was made between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in 2023
        
        Pandas are "envoys of friendship between the Chinese and American peoples." - Xi Jinping, 2023
    - - South China Sea
        
        Land Reclaimation
        
        Fiery Cross Reef
        
        Woody Island
        
        Interception
        
        In 2023, a Chinese fighter jet flew within 3m of a US bomber.
        
        Grey Zone Fleet
        
        Private fishing vessels that occupy waters and prevent other states from fishing
        
        Subsidies provided for those that remain in SCS waters for 280 days per year.
        
        Municipalities
        
        2 million km2
        
        280 features (islands, reefs, etc.)
      - BRI
        
        In 2024, the BRI included 151 states, with 2/3 of the world's population and 40% of global GDP
        
        More than $1 trillion in investments.
        
        Increases states' reliance on Chinese economy through 'debt-trap diplomacy'.
        
        In 2019, 50 BRI states sent a letter to the UN Human Rights Commissioner supporting China's view on Xinjiang.
  - - - Diplomatic Isolation of Taiwan
        
        Economic Incentives for Recognition
        
        China - Solomon Islands Deal
    - - Trade Restrictions on Australia
    - - BRI
  - - - Demography
        
        Birth Rate
        
        By 2050, 33% of China's population will be over 60
        
        One-Child Policy (1979 - 2015)
        
        Gender Imbalance
        
        There are 118 men for every 100 women
        
        Lack of Immigration
        
        0.1% of the Chinese population are foreign-born
        
        In 2021, China experienced a net-out migration of 200,000 people
      - International Rivals
        
        The Quad (USA, Australia, Japan, India)
        
        Five Eyes (USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, UK)
  - - - Challenges
        
        Security threat to Japan -> Reinterpretation of Japan's pacifist constitution to allow for self-defence
    - - Strengths
        
        Australia has $120bn in exports to China
        
        Investment in developing states
      - Challenges
        
        China's renewable growth threatens Australia's fossil fuel industry
    - - Improved relations with Pacific islands seen as a 'tug of war' in western states.
  - - - Rise of China
        
        In 2024, at the ASEAN summit, Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim urged the member states to recognise China as a 'global superpower'.