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GEOECONOMICS WEEK 1,2 & 3 - Coggle Diagram

- - - - IMF/WTO estimate that economic fragmentation causes a long-run loss of −5% to −7% of global GDP.
      - Rerouting of trade has led Mexico, Canada, and the EU to displace China as the main trade partners of the US
  - - - High-tech R&D and critical technological leadership. -> According to the ASPI Critical Technology Tracker, China leads in 66 out of 74 critical technologies, while the US leads in 8
    - - Concentration of advanced semiconductor production in East Asia, with Taiwan (TSMC) accounting for ~90% of advanced chips
    - - China’s dominance due to holding 44% of global reserves, ~70% of production, and 39 specialized university program
  - - - The rapid movement of the world’s economic center of gravity toward Asia, with the Asia-Pacific region contributing ~59.4% of global GDP growth
    - - US Dollar maintain ~56% of global FX reserves, despite increased renminbi trade settlements
    - - Evolution from G5/G7 to broader forums like the G20, BRICS+ (surpassed G7 in PPP GDP), and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, cover ~60% of Eurasia
  - - - System of Powers: How Trump's unilateral posture moves the global order away from post-WWII alliances toward transactional spheres of influence.
        
        Tariff Limits: High-level look at why the US couldn't easily win a tariff war with China due to rare earths and trade diversion
- - - - Learning Resources v. Trump, 20 Feb 2026: iEEPA/emergency powers do not authorize Tariffs
        
        Constitutional Principle: The Court affirmed that taxing trade is an exclusive power of Congress ("no taxation without representation"
      - REFUNDS: 166bn$ refunded to importers following court defeat
        
        financial liability added further pressure to an already strained US fiscal budget and federal debt exceeding $40 trillion
    - - Section 122 (Trade Act of 1974): Applied a temporary 10% global tariff
      - Shift to Statuatory Workarounds:
        
        redirected rather than ended executive protectionism. To bypass IEEPA ruling without relying on Congress, administration pivoted to specific statutory workarounds
      - plus Section 232 and 301 probes. Congress is less protectionist than the president.
  - - - Interest costs so far in FY2026 ($827bn to 13 July) AND exceed Medicare ($780bn) and defence ($713bn).
    - - AAA lost at S&P (2011) and Moody's (2025)
    - - Warsh hiked rates