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UNIT VI: DECISION-MAKING AND STRATEGY DESIGN - Coggle Diagram
UNIT VI: DECISION-MAKING AND STRATEGY DESIGN
🌿 1️⃣ Application of Impact and Probability Matrices
The application of impact and probability matrices allows for the systematic evaluation of the relevance of different factors or events that could influence the future of an organization, prioritizing resources and anticipating responses.
🔹 Concept
→ Evaluates environmental factors.→ Combines impact and probability.→ Classifies elements on a grid.→ Guides strategic decisions.
🔹 Characteristics
→ Vertical axis: level of impact (low, medium, high).→ Horizontal axis: probability of occurrence.→ Placement based on expert judgment and data.→ Four quadrants of analysis.
🔹 Objectives
→ Prioritize urgent factors.→ Identify strategic risks.→ Monitor minor changes.→ Discard less relevant elements.→ Focus resources.
🔹 Importance
→ Ranks problems and opportunities.→ Reduces exposure to risk.→ Strengthens institutional preparedness.→ Facilitates consensus among stakeholders.
🌿 2️⃣ Scenario Simulation and Modeling Techniques
Simulation and modeling techniques allow the dynamic representation of how systems would evolve over time, virtually testing their consequences.
🔹 Concept
→ Builds formal representations of the system.→ Integrates economic, social, and political variables.→ Establishes relationships through equations or rules.→ Allows experimentation with assumptions.
🔹 Main techniques
→ System dynamics (feedback loops, cycles).→ Agent-based models (collective behavior).→ Matrix-based scenario analysis.→ Stochastic / Monte Carlo simulations.
🔹 Importance
→ Facilitates understanding of complex systems.→ Validates scenarios with greater robustness.→ Anticipates consequences before implementation.
🌿 3️⃣ Evaluation of Consequences and Sustainability
This evaluation assesses the implications of each scenario, both in terms of expected outcomes and long-term viability.
🔹 Dimensions of sustainability
→ Economic (financial viability).→ Social (cohesion, inclusion, legitimacy).→ Environmental (responsible use of resources).→ Institutional (governance, management).
🔹 Objectives
→ Determine who wins and who loses.→ Assess risks and opportunities.→ Prioritize, combine, or discard scenarios.
🌿 4️⃣ Foresight Monitoring Indicators
Indicators translate narrative scenarios into observable, measurable signals that allow their evolution to be tracked.
🔹 Quality criteria
→ Relevance, clarity, measurability, updatability, strategic usefulness.
🔹 Components
→ Thresholds or reference points.→ Dynamic visualization dashboards.
🌿 5️⃣ Feedback for Dynamic Adjustment
Feedback allows strategies and scenarios to be continuously adapted and refined as environmental conditions change.
🔹 Characteristics
→ Individual, organizational, and collective learning.→ Periodic updating of scenarios.→ Participatory dimension.