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UNIT IV: BUILDING ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS - Coggle Diagram
UNIT IV: BUILDING ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
🌿 1️⃣ Scenario Definition Techniques: Structured, Narrative, and Quantitative
🔹 Concept
→ Builds future scenarios.→ Analyzes strategic variables.→ Integrates qualitative and quantitative information.→ Facilitates prospective planning.
🔹 Characteristics
→ Uses structured methods.→ Employs descriptive narratives.→ Incorporates quantitative data.→ Analyzes different possible futures.→ Supports decision-making.
🔹 Objectives
→ Design prospective scenarios.→ Anticipate changes in the environment.→ Evaluate different alternatives.→ Reduce uncertainty.→ Support institutional strategy.
🔹 Importance
→ Improves planning.→ Strengthens strategic vision.→ Facilitates anticipation.→ Reduces risks.→ Fosters innovation.
🔹 Main elements
→ Structured scenarios.→ Narrative scenarios.→ Quantitative scenarios.→ Strategic variables.→ Trends.→ Uncertainties.
🌿 2️⃣ Developing Timelines and Plausible Futures
🔹 Concept
→ Organizes future events.→ Represents the evolution of the system.→ Identifies key moments.→ Visualizes plausible scenarios.
🔹 Characteristics
→ Follows a chronological sequence.→ Includes short, medium, and long term.→ Considers changes and uncertainties.→ Facilitates monitoring.→ Integrates strategic decisions.
🔹 Objectives
→ Project future scenarios.→ Identify important milestones.→ Anticipate changes.→ Guide planning.→ Improve decision-making.
🔹 Importance
→ Favors long-term vision.→ Reduces uncertainty.→ Organizes strategies.→ Facilitates monitoring.→ Strengthens anticipation.
🌿 3️⃣ Developing Optimistic, Trend-Based, and Critical Scenarios
🔹 Concept
→ Designs alternative scenarios.→ Analyzes trends.→ Evaluates opportunities and risks.→ Facilitates strategic planning.
🔹 Characteristics
→ Optimistic scenario.→ Trend-based scenario.→ Critical scenario.→ Based on prospective analysis.→ Favors anticipation.
🔹 Objectives
→ Compare possible futures.→ Prepare strategic responses.→ Reduce risks.→ Seize opportunities.→ Strengthen resilience.
🔹 Importance
→ Facilitates decision-making.→ Increases preparedness.→ Promotes adaptation.→ Reduces uncertainty.→ Strengthens strategic management.
🌿 4️⃣ Strategic Narratives and Future Scripts
🔹 Concept
→ Builds stories about the future.→ Communicates scenarios.→ Integrates strategic vision.→ Facilitates understanding of change.
🔹 Characteristics
→ Structured accounts.→ Based on scenarios.→ Include actors and events.→ Foster participation.→ Generate a shared vision.
🔹 Objectives
→ Communicate scenarios.→ Motivate participation.→ Strengthen institutional vision.→ Guide strategic decisions.→ Promote learning.
🔹 Importance
→ Facilitates understanding.→ Improves communication.→ Generates commitment.→ Fosters innovation.→ Drives leadership.
🌿 5️⃣ Selection and Validation of Scenarios
🔹 Concept
→ Evaluates scenarios.→ Selects alternatives.→ Validates coherence.→ Facilitates decision-making.
🔹 Characteristics
→ Based on strategic criteria.→ Analyzes internal coherence.→ Considers participation.→ Evaluates feasibility.→ Strengthens planning.
🔹 Objectives
→ Choose relevant scenarios.→ Validate constructed scenarios.→ Improve the quality of the analysis.→ Design future strategies.→ Reduce uncertainty.
🔹 Importance
→ Improves planning.→ Increases reliability.→ Facilitates adaptation.→ Reduces risks.→ Strengthens foresight.