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Evaluate the extent to which the rise of other states has now diminished…
Evaluate the extent to which the rise of other states has now diminished the US as a global hegemon
Intro: The US were certainly global hegemon after the Cold War, after the dissolution of the USSR ensured an end to the bipolarity era, what some realists deem 'the long peace.' Though the US enjoyed global hegemony in the late 90s and early 2000s, its clear to see that the rise of powers like China and the reemergence of powers like India and Russia rival this.
PARA TWO: Diplomatic / cultural / political - soft power
US cultural exports, from Hollywood to tech giants like Google or Apple. American values like democracy, freedom of speech and free markets have also been promoted through its foreign policy, shaping global governance and public opinion.
The US are precedent setting on matters like Human Rights.
Lots of hearts and minds enagement
Internal political divisions, economic inequality and the rise of China as a competitor diminishes the US power.
CAVEAT: Tik tok is Chinese! Though the US is buying more and more of it.
Made in China 2025 (introduced in 2015)
- reflects China's ambitions to transform itself from a manufacturing giant of low-cost goods into a leader in high-tech industries. Plan focuses on developing Chinese capabilities in key sectors like AI, robotics, biotech etc. China investing heavily and resource and development (R&D), reducing reliance on the West. Companies like Huawei + Tencent drive digital economy. Closing gaps in critical areas of tech.
During the 90s and early 2000s, the US led anti-terrorism campaigns that led to the Arab Spring - increasing democrocitisation
This was ultimately a failure though which reflects how American values don't hold up
everywhere.
China's formed partnerships with Russia and Iran.
The US wield very strong political power, they lead institutions like NATO and contribute 60% of spending to the institution.
The US also has veto on the Security Council. NATO and the G7, and has been instrumental in shaping international law, human rights and global security.
PARA ONE: Economic - Hard power
The US is certainly economically most powerful - for now!
The US has the greatest global GDP, and its outreach through outsourcing and investments via TNCs is almost unrivaled (Walmart etc).
Their GDP is 28 trillion, unparalleled influence over global financial institutions like the IMF.
America has 16/17% voting power in both the IMF and World Bank
The US' tarriffs have immense influence on global markets, Trump's tarrifs have been paralysing and US' influence in the Security Council to implement sanctions is notable
HOWEVER: This is being very much rivaled by China! China is second globally in GDP and 1st globally in purchasing power. Also they're having increased global investment through the Belt and Road initiative (launched 2013), meaning they have increased economic influence this way.
Belt and Road initaitve: helps China redeuce its reliance on trade moving through the South China Sea and help it secure and alternative route for oil from the Middle East. Investments have led to criticisms of 'debt-trap diplomacy'.
China is still reliant on exports and investment, exposes it to external economic shocks. Aging population and shrinking workforce!
In comparison to other states, where voting power doesn't usually exceed 1-6%.
China joined the WTO in 2001 which boosted its international trade. China maintained a low-profile foreign policy during the pre-2008 period to focus on economic development rather than geopolitical assertiveness.
PARA THREE: Military - hard power
The US make up 40% of global military spending
US military is the largest and most technologically advanced in the world, with a defense budget of 842 billion as of 2024. Military strength is also measures in the ability to deploy when and where needed. The US maintains military bases across the globe allows it to project power in every region.
Global military capacity evidenced by involvement in conflicts throughout the Cold War, Gulf War, intervention in the Balkans, and the War on Terror in Afghanistan and Iraq.
China has invested in modenrising its mlitary and has the second-largest defence budget at 230 million. PLA has made significant advancement in naval power, PLA navy has largest number of ships.
Investment in cyber warfare.
US military spending (877 billion) still dwarfs China and US has more outreach with 700 bases worldwide compares to china's ONE! (for piracy missions in Africa)