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Its time to take a risk on Syria - Coggle Diagram
Its time to take a risk on Syria
Intro
Background on who HTS and al-Sharra are
Many critics of the new govenrment in Damascus raise some legitamte concerns about the new governemnt:
-- Al-Sharaa was a memeber of al-Qaeda.
-- HTS is an Islamist and Jihadist groups.
-- Elements of HTS are ideologically aigned with a very secterian and strict interpation of Islam.
The fears these create, espically that Western aid could end up financing a new, Syrian Taliban should not enitly be dismissed, but it is important to question them.
HTS may not be perfect, but they could offer a pathway to a better and more western aligned Syria in the future.
This taking power there have been some worrying incidents such as the sideling of the the Autonomous Administration of the North and East Syria (AANES) and the epansion of the role of Islam in the provisional consitution (
Source
).
Some of the recent developments.
Syria has been rocked by change in the last 6 months. In November 2024 it looked like the Assad regime was stable, in 2023 Assad returned to the Arab league as regimes in the region concede his apperent victory in the civil war (
Source
).
But, in December the world was shcoked by the lightning advance of the rebel group HTS, but even as the rebel group took cities like Alleppo it seemed impossible the regime would fall (
Source
).
By the end of the year a new governemnt was in power, Ahmed al-Sharra was ruling from Damascus, but HTS were not done with surprises. Since victory the group, or at least its leadership, have talked up economic and poitical reforms signalling a move to free market economics and inclusive goverence.
Disclaimer
Important to be cautious.
Why Syria needs us?
Rebuilding the country
The Syrian government has made clear its desire to enter the country into the Western economic syste through and expansion of foriegn investment in the country.
With a desperate need for foriegn investment, one of the best place that the Syrian government can look is to the West and to the UK.
In 2022 the UK banking sector produced over 200bn of economic output (
source
) and London is one of the financial capitals of the world.
Whilist Syria is able to look elsewhere for investment other options will be limited. Reproachment with Russia and Iran will not open up vast economic investments.
Russia's economy and its banks remain heavily sanctioned with restrictions on their use of financial messaging services, access to foriegn reserves and limits on the oligarchs (
source
).
This, alongisde the growing costs of the war in Ukraine, limit the ability of the Russian governemnt to turn on the taps.
Meanwhile Iran faces its own problems. Economically it too remains under strict sanctions, although these could be lifted by a nuclear deal and remains a relativly poor countyr with a GDP per capitai alomst 5 times smaller than Poland (
Source
).
The best, non-western, alterntive for finance would come from China and the Belt and Road iniateive which the old Syrian government joined and which much of the Middle East has also joined (
Source
).
Unsuprisingly Syria's economy lies in ruins. The cost to rebuild the country could be as high as $400bn, over 70% of the country live in poverty and 25% of the country live in extreme poverty (
source
).
Ensuring stability
There are opposition groups in Syria that could reform to pose a threat to regime stability, esically along the Syrian coast where Russian interests lie and Iran can find allies in the Shi'a/Assadist population.
Building stability in Syria requires the rebuilding of the country, the handling of foriegn fighters, the training of a new security aperatus and peace negoaitions between HTS and the SDF (
source
).
Across a range of these Western aid will help.
Western countries can help rebuild the country, they can help improve security services, they can take back forign fighters and they can use their infleunce to help build peace between the SDF and HTS.
The US, and to a lesser extent other Western countries, can also help produce peace between the SDF and Turkey removing another potential areas of military escalation.
This is already happening (
Source
) with the US brockering talks with Turkey, it is key for the stability of Syria that the rest of NATO can prevent a dangerous escalation between Turkey and the Kurds.
Needs international partners that aren't Iran and Russia
Why we need Syria?
We can contribute to democratistion
SDF
Turkey has little interest in Syria developing into a multi-ethnic state with concerns in Ankara focused on the percived threat that the Kurds could play to Turkey.
Without an external force pushing for democracy and offering aid in support of this the regime might fall back on autocratic tendecies and rely on Turkish aid.
A key part of pushing for democratistion is through the supporting of civil socities and opposition groups (
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/05/three-requisites-for-syrias-reconstruction-process?lang=en
), this can be supported by Western governments as part of support.
Western aid was largely provided to the Kurdish led, pro-democracy SDF/AANES linking aid to their inclusion alongside that of the Druze and other minority groups wit aid.
Without cooperation with the new governement there is no reason for them to listent to calls from the West for democracy.
Contain infleunce of other groups (Russia and Turkey)
Lack of Western action opens space for Moscow and Bejining to fill in the void. --
https://www.stimson.org/2025/what-roles-will-russia-and-iran-play-in-post-assad-syria/
There is growing concern over the infleunce that Turkey could have on the country.
Russia has not given up on its ambitions in the region even if it is bruised.
Russia has used secterian conflcits in the Alawite areas to provide humanitarian cover for these groups, however, Russia has used this excuse (of protecting minorities) to expand their military presence in regions (
source
).
Important not to forget that the areas where Russia are based in Syria are the homes of Assad's key base of support. Its not impossible that Russia will use its foothold to support an Alawite, seperaist movement.
Western infleunce in the region can help fill the void that has been created by the withdrawal of Assad's allies and help offer a counterwieght to their return.
Conc
Both the West and Syria have interests in working together. If take full advanateg of, these mutual interests could help Syria rebuild from the civil war, return to relative stability and help it develop into a more stable and equal democracy.
But, if the West rejects Syria, the country will still be faced with the same problems: a need for stability and a need to rebuild. HTS can't do this on its own and they will pursue other allies either China, Russia or even Iran if they have to.
The fall of Assad offers a uniuqe opportunity for the West to help rebuild its relations with the Arab world and enhance its global alliances.