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Voting behaviour and the media - Coggle Diagram
Voting behaviour and the media
Voting behaviour
Social factors - politicians will try to target and win the "key" groups.
Social class
Classifications according to the 2011 national census
AB - higher class (banker, doctor) - 22% of population
C1 - lower higher class (teacher, office manager) - 30% of pop
C2 - middle, working class (plumber, hairdresser) - 21% of pop
DE - lower class (unemployed or semi-employed) - 26% of pop
"Floating voter" - a voter whose vote changes in different elections and who is liable to change.
Votes of some classes are fairly predictable, thus parties would tailor their manifestos towards a particular group of people, + there is a culture among classes to vote for one or the other party.
There was a decreasing pattern of "voter attachment" to a particular party according on their class.
Proportion of AB voters who voted Conservative fell from 78% in 1964 to only 45% in 2019.
26% of AB class voted Conservatives in 2024
The % of support for Labour among the DE class fell from 64 % in 1964 to 39% in 2019
33% of DE class voted Labour in 2024
Reasons for "class dealignment"
Parties like the Lib Dems since the 1980s began to adopt more "centrist" policies that can find appeal in a wider generation
Rise in influence of other factors, e.g. in 2019, Conservatives won in each class group (AB - 45%, DE - 41%)as a result of their commitment to Brexit.
General decrease in a class turnout, e.g. in 2024 G.E., the overall turnout was 59.7% and only 47% of DE turned out
Smaller % of social groups vote for smaller parties, e.g. in 2015 elections, 19% of the C2 and 17% of DE class voted for UKIP
Party voting
Parties usually would rely on their core voters - these are voters who would invariably support one or other of the main parties (usually fall into patter based on social class or religion)
Increasing party dealignmnet - when individuals stop to associate themsleves on a long-term basis with certain party.
e.g. in 2019, 18% of Labour voters switched to the Conservatives because of the issue of Brexit, which broke the "Red Wall" and Labour lost 52 seats in the House of Commons
Gender
Parties have tailored strategies to target women, e.g. Labour`s pledge in 2017 to conduct a gender impact assessment on all the policies and legislations.
Labour`s 2015 Woman to Woman pink minibus visited 75 constituencies to encourage more women to vote.
Both David Cameron and Tony Blair promised to increase the number of female MPS.
HOWEVER, women like men tend to vote based on the issue and not the gender.
e.g. in 2019 the gendergap in party voting was quiet small (46% M and 43%F voted Conservatives and 31%M and 34%F voted Labour)
There was some notable shift of more women voting Labour since 1997
Reasons: before 1997 Conservative party led by Thatcher, was seen as the party of "housewives" which sought to keep prices low to help mothers. With the shift in societal attitudes, more women become to hold a lace in industries -> vote Labour
e.g. in 2019 G.E. 18-24 y.o. 65% of women voted Labour Vs. to 46% of males
Gender roles in society have created a gender gap in voters. Issues like health and education are traditionally prioritised by females, while defence and immigration are seen as concerning more males.
Education
Education does appear to have a "liberalising" effect, e.g. in 2017, 47% of people who held a degree were likely to vote Labour or Lib Dems, while 36% (Conservatives) and 4% UKIP
In 2017, of those with no formal qualification, 53% voted Conservatives and 17% for UKIP
Age
Considered to be almost directly mirroring the pattern of class voting in 1979
Since 1997 age became the most dividing factor due to Britain`s sgifting economic position. e.g. in 2019 18-24 y.o. 56% voted Labour and 65+ 57% voted Conervatives
Why there was an age viting shift?
Younger people tend to e more progressive
As people get older they gain more assets suggeting that they are more likely to vote rationaly and self-based
Younger people have less responsiilitites thus may indulge in more outward-looking ideas
Most supporters of the Labour wo joined in 2015-16 to support Jeremy Corbyn were young people
Young voters are less likely to turn up e.g. even in the 2017 reported "youthquake" the proportion of young voters turning out was only 54%, 15% below the average age turnout
Parties priorities older people (lesson learned by Ed Milibandin 2015 when he pledged to scrap university fees and limit pension increases and lost elections as the result.)
In contrast Conservatives pledged to "triple lock on pensions" which appealed to older voters thus they won elections.
Ethnicity
Race neutral theory - suggests that any given party should be favoured by any given ethnicity as in an equal society.
But parties have still shaped BAME attitudes
Conservatives having a hidtory of opposing immigration and equal rights.
British Future think tank suggests that there have been a waning effect of race on the voting, because there are now more major issues such as housing, employment and immigration.
e.g in 1997 70% voted Labour Vs. 60% in 2010
Enoch Powell`s "Rivers of blood" speech supports Conservative being the anti-immigration party.
Labour passed major anti-discrimination legislations, thus BAME voters favour Labour by quite large margins
e.g. in 2019 64% of BAME voters voted Labour
Because historically BAME voters have been working in industrial roles it automatically made them allies to the Labour Party
the proportion of BAME people in C2 and DE class is greater which can be explained by the systematic prejudices and biases in British society.
Region
Wealth is not evenly distributed across England thus regional variations may be in fact class variations.
Conservatives
The south of england is solidly Conservative e.g. in 2017 54% voted Cons
Labour
Labour dominates London e.g. in 2017 55% voted Labour
Regions of greater deprivation and places of traditional industries such as southwest and northeast of England favour Labour.
e.g. Labour dominated Wales in 2017 49% (to 37% of votes won by Conservatives) - bc south Wales is largely industrial
Labour leads the north of England e.g. in 2017 53% of votes
SNP
Dominates Scotland e.g. in 2015 won 56 out of 59 seats on offer
Lib. Dems
Have great support in South England e.g. 11% in 2017
Turnout
Variable turnout
As a result of how important the elections might be (the turnout is usually higher in marginal seats where the result is uncertain than in safe seats)
e.g. turnout in 2015 (66.1%) and 2017 (68.8%) was higher than in 2001 (59.4%) when it was clear that Labour will win.
Age and class
AGE
Young voters are more reluctant to turn out than older voters, e.g. between 1992 and 2015 the vote among young people fell by approximately 19%.
The older the person, the more likely they are to vote, e.g. in 2019 (18-24 y.o., 47% voting turnout Vs 74% of 65+)
Reported "youthquake" in 2017 when 54% of 18-24 y.o. turned out had been more of a blip than a change bc in 2019 turnout fell back to 47%
Reasons for low turnout:
Widespread disillusionment and apathy (belief that politicas has nothing to do with the life of youth)
The young are increasingly finding new ways to participate in politics (e-petitions, direct action and media campaigning)
Youth is more interested in single issues thus join more pressure groups.
Youth may feel need to abstain which is to show protest to the current politics and parties that they feel are not representative and worth of their vote.
AGAINST low turnout
The turnout in recent 2014 Scottish independence referendum was 75% for 16 and 17 y.o and 54% for 18-24 y.o. reporting an overall 64% turnout for 18-34 y.o.
CLASS
Labour`s natural voter are reluctant to turnout
e.g. in 2019 53% of DE voters and 59% of C2 comparing to the turnout of 64% for C1 and 68% for AB voters (naturally Conservative)
REASONS for difference in turnout
People don`t feel like their vote will make a difference
People may not vote if the issues do not relate to them personally.
Voter apathy
low turnout for the city mayor and local council elections because they are considered "second order" elections e.g. in 2021 local elections turout was 34.1% falling even more in 2024 to 30.2%
Individual voting theories
Valence
It is where voters make their decisions based on the party or candidate they think is most likely to run country effectively (especeally in relation to the economy)
Peter Kellner "millions of swing voters take a valence view of politics"
Voters also judge on the governing competency (or economic votinh) - the ability of the governing party to manage the affairs of the state well enough. Who will do most to spread wealth?
e.g. in 2008 Labour was blamed for the economic crisis and allowing government debt to rise by al alarming amount (thus Labour defeats in 2010 and 2015 were based on economic voting)
Leadership - voters like strong leaders
e.g. Labour`s Ed Miliband was perceived as weak in 2015 and Gordon Brown was defeated in 2010 as a punishment for being indecisive.
Rational choice
Suggests that people vote based on what they consider to be in their own best interest. Voters look at the manifetos and decise which party suits them the most.
Issue voting (voters deciding based on single issue)
Thus, now main parties adopt single issues such as environmental policies to counteract the rising support for the Greens or conservatives adopting Eurosceptic view to challenge the UKIP.
In 2017 The Manchester Area bombing and London Bridge attack made the issue of terrorism and policing a major issue for voters.
FACTORS effecting individual voting
Manifestos (list of policies that party sets out to try and appeal more voters and persuade them to vote fr the party)
e.g. in 2019, Labour`s manifesto was really specific
e.g. to abolish tuition fees for universities & to increase the minimum wage to 10 pounds per hour for anyone over 16 y.o.
Conservatives
pledged to increase pensions by at least 2.2% each year and spend at least 6.3 million pounds on the disadvantaged homes.
Lib. Dems
Promised to stop Brexit and to recruit 20 000 more teachers.
Manifestos help to establish the doctrine of the mandate (which is when a successful party claims authority to implement its manifesto)
Significance of the mandate
Electors feel confident that they understand which policies they are consenting to.
Mandate strengthens government (winning party gains legitimacy for its policies)
Parliament can call government to account on the basis of manifesto
Gives electorate an opportunity to judge the performance of the gov. party
all MPs of the winning party are bound by the mandate, which encourages discipline among the party.
PROBLEMS
If there is a coalition, e.g. 2010 the actual content of mandate is unclear
Voters who have opted for one party may not necessarily agree with its all manifesto commitments.
Circumctances may change and partymay be forced to abandon some policies e.g. in 2010 Lib Dems abandoned their idea to abolish university tuition fees
Manifesto commitments may be vague, which makes calling government to account difficult.
Party Leaders (public perception)
Qualities that public often cites as iportant: record in office, decisiveness, compassion, stron leadership.
e.g. in 2019 Boris Johnson had 39% of satisfaction votes according to the oppinion polls
AGAINST party leadership
e.g. in 2010 Lib Dem Nick Clegg was the most popular of the party leaders following his impressive television debate performance, but suprisingly Lib. Dems vote share fall by 1% and they lost 5 of their parliamentary seat.
In 1979 Labour PM James Callaghan led thatcher by 20% in popularity polls but still lost elections.
Although in 2019 Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) had only 29% of satisfactory votes the party regained a number of seats lost in 2017 (party is more important than leader image)
Tactical Voting
In cases when voter realises thet they may cast a "wasted vote" they may abandon theit FPTP first preference and vote for second choice that really has a chance of winning.
John Curtice a leading election expert estimated that tactical voting could have affected 77 constituencies in the 2015 election
Influence of the media
Broadcasting
Involves television stations such as BBC, ITV and Channel 4 - all of them are bound by law to remain neutral and offer balanced reporting of election and referendum campaigns.
Influence of televised debates
All televised channels held one in the recent elections (was overseen by Electorla Commission)
Does not seem to hold a lot of influence e.g. Nick Clegg + another example is in 2015 Ed Milliband narrowly won televised debates but his poor standing on the leadership polling did not change.
The press
e.g. after the 1992 infamous Conservative win when John Major secured a majority over Labour, the newspaper Sun proclaimed "It`s the Sun Wot Won It" (Because the "Sun" led relentless campaigns against Laour Party leader Neil Kinnock)
There is no press regulation in term of bias and UK newspapers are highly politicised. e.g. The "Sun" and "Daily Mail" support Conservatives.
Press does NOT influence voting behaviour
Newspapers tend to reflect the typical political views of their readers, rather than leading them.
Rupert Murdoch, owner of the Sun gave evidence to the Leveson Inquiry into press behaviour in 2012 stating that newspapers do not swing votes, they merely reflect reader`s opinions.
In 2017 Jeremy Corbyn`s Labour Party received 40% of the national vote despite only having one paper (The Mirror) on their side.
The social media
It is uregulated so there is a possiility for any political group to gain traction. Especially useful to small parties such as Greens and Reform UK.
Social media tends to popularise a debate which thn gets picked up by the broadcast media and turns into political subject.
e.g. the report into Russia interference in the EU referendum was popularised via social media
Influence on elections
1979 "The Sun" published "Crisis? What crisis?" as Jim Callaghan`s reaction to the Winter Discontent - it caught public imagination suggesting that he was out of touch. Polls still showed that he was ahead of Thatcher.
1997 "The Sun" publicaly switched support towards New Labour and Tony Blair. Polls suggested that even without that Labour was on course for large victory and "The Sun" simply reacted to the existing situation.
2015 Ed Milliban fell off the stage and gave an over-excited "Hell yes, I`m tough enough" response making him appear less prime minesterial. Polls suggested that debate did not change anything it just confirmed existing voter intentions
e.g. in 2024 Labour spent in total 2.4 million pounds on advertisement including 1.5 million spent on Instagram and Facebook
e.g. in 2024 Nigel Farage leader of the Reform UK maintained a high level of activity on X posting nearly each hour on the election day promoting Reform`s policy lines
Role of media between elections
Traditionally they reported on events as they happened and provided commentary allowing readers to make their own informed decision.
Also media acts as a bridge btw electorate and their representatives (acted as a check by scrutinising their work via investigation)
e.g. Daily Telegraph investigation of the MPs espenses scandal in 2008 held many MPs to account
Since 1980s the role of media has shifted
It mocks politicians rather than provides information
Became more partisan
Prioritises negtive political stories over positive ones + has contributed to a national attitude of cynicism (ppl motivated by self-interest) towards politics and politicians
By focusing more on personalities media has turned politicians into celebrities
e.g. in 2023 Nigel Farage took part in "I am celebrity...get me out of here!"
The development of a 24 hour media caused them to develop filler stories that become more prominent then they should be
Media focuses more on "scandals", "enemies" as these are more likely to attract more consumers.
e.g. weekly Wednesday PMQ time is regarded as a "gladiatorial battle" by the media
Media INFLUENCING politics
Between 1992 and 1997 the press investigated and reported scandals such as "cash for questions" - it led to the Conservative party to be associated with "sleaze" and damaging its reputation.
When the BBC in 2003 reported that the war in Iraq has been hyped by using a "sex up" the issues it became a full-blown government scandal resulting in an undermined trust to Tony Blair.
in 2016 Daily Mail published "Enemies of the people" claiming that the 3 high court judges were ruling against the people (when they ruled that only parliament not PM can trigger Article 50) + inflamed tensions over the Brexit.
Public opinion polls
It is a poll that is carried out by the research organisations on the sample voters to establish the main voting intentions but also be used to gauge leader`s popularity.
Can effect voting
In the 2015 General Election, opinion polls predicted a huge win for Scotland and probably a Labour-SNP coalition, the Conservatives Party began to campaign on this basis, hoping to win an outright majority.
in 2015, Lib Dems were predicted in a decline of voters. Had this effected voters leading to a tactical voting which as a result depressed the Lib Dem vote even further?
In 2017 opinion polls were also wrong. They predicted Conservatives to have a lead between 5 and 12%, suggesting that these outcomes would win them a comfortable majoriy. In reality Cons came in barely 2% ahead of Labour resulting in a hung parliament. (only 1 poll YouGov predicted such a result)
CASE STUDIES
1979 General Elections
By that time polls had turned against Labour and supported Thatcher.
Cons won with a majority of 43 seats
There was a large decline in people who described themselves as "working class" - may have eroded Labour`s vote.
"Winter of Discontent" - led to the rising issue of trade unions control.
Rising issue of unemployment and high inflation.
James Callaghan (Labour) was seen as likeable whereas
Thatcher was reffered as "posh"
Turnout of 76%
1997 General Elections
Political issues: of NHS and state of education. + Chancellor Gordon Brown promised to be financially responsible (strong message bc Labour was known as a "tax and spend party")
The campaign: Blair toured the marginal seats with a help from the Millbank Media Centre + the slogan "education, education and eduction" helped to galvanise public + positive "pro-Blair" campaign
Conservatives had to deal with allegations of been a corrupted party which too them away from campaigning.
Tony Blair formed "New Labour"
Labour won majority of 179 seats.
They notices the sinking size of the "working class" so decided to adopt more centrist policies "Third Way". Labour appeared to be a younger and fresher party + the general sense that Conservatives have misshandles economy fueled to the win of Labour
John Major (Cons) appeared as grey and unexciting whereas Tony Blair was young and attractive.
Turnout 71%
Labour`s policies
To cut class sizes in schools
Fast-track punishment for young offenders
To cut NHS waiting list
People`s vote
Labour gained support across as the classes e.g. C1 (+19%) and C2 (+15%)
Labour beat Cons among white voters with 43% of the vote and BAME voters with 70% of the vote.
2015 General Elections
Conservatives won with a majority of 12 seats
Demographics
Cons dominated the South of England as a whole V.s. LibDem lost all 15 seats in southwest England
All the major parties apart from SNP enjoyed negative image e.g. Labour was still blamed for the economy
Leadership
Davis Cameron`s imahe was least negative. Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband were both short of public respect
Turnout - 66.1%(as many as 2 million former non-voters turned upp, may supporting UKIP)
Campaigns
Second ever televised debate (Ed Miliband in negative light)
Conservative campaign which focused on the working families and askinf about the "Labour`s majic tree" seemed effective
Both major parties started to stress the dangers of possible coalitions btw L&SNP and C&UKIP
Policies
Conservatives pledged to make welfare cuts and hold in/out referendum
Opinion Polls
Got the prediction wrong by underestimating the amount of elderly voters will turn up
The 2019 General Election
Turnout: 67%
COnservatives won 365 seats with the majority of 80 seats
Conservatives broke the "red wall" by appealing to older and working-class voters angry over Brexit. While Labour continued to focus on younger with a more socialist manifesto.
Unlike Therese May in 2017 Boris Johnson appeared focused and clear in his policy making but Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson alienated the public after pledging to repeal Article 50 (process by which state can withdraw from EU)
A lot of social media attack campaigns
The polls seemed to indicate a Conservative win, but underestimated its scale.
Slight gender gap: 65% of women voted Labour comparing to 46% of men.
BAME voters favoured Labour 64%, Conservatives won the white vote 48%