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Projected Deglaciation of Western Canada in the 21st Century (Clarke et al…
Projected Deglaciation of Western Canada in the 21st Century (Clarke et al.)
Ice Loss Projections
They found that by 2100, the glacierized area will have significantly decreased in all areas
losses would be more severe in high-emission scenarios.
Rockies region loses the most area, while Coast region shows more resistance.
Volume loss projections show wider uncertainty bands than area loss, indicating greater sensitivity to emission scenario.
Glacier volume is projected to decrease substantially, with over 70% loss by 2100 in high-emission scenarios.
Uncertainties in RCP8.5 Projections
Glacier reaction is accelerated by rapid warming, which increases projection variability.
Uncertainties are introduced by increased melt rates, particularly with regard to volume and discharge.
Uncertainties in RCP2.6 Projections
Spread across projections is reduced with slower warming.
Less variation across projections occurs with slower warming.
Volume and discharge changes
Freshwater supply is impacted as total glacier flow declines as ice volume diminishes.
As glaciers retreat, glacier discharge peaks move earlier in the year.
discharge sharply declining by the late 21st century.
There may be gradual decline that picks up speed after 2040, particularly under RCP8.5.
Uncertainties in hydrological implications are highlighted by greater fluctuation under RCP8.5
The Rockies are more vulnerable to increased emissions and are more likely to experience losses due to warming.
Since most models converge, there is less variance in projections, and the beginning effects are more predictable.