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BASIC PE MODELLING - Coggle Diagram

- - - - useful when you have alternatives and uncertainties in a situation
        
        useful when variables are interdependent
    - - elements
        
        Decision node (square)
        
        a point where a decision is made
        
        intervention or treatment (to use or not to use)
        
        Value node (diamond)
        
        results of a particular decision or uncertainty that is measure or evaluated
        
        Link between nodes (arc)
        
        signifies a relationship or influence between one node to another
        
        Chance node (circle)
        
        represent uncertainties that could happen in the outcome
  - - - SICA model
  - - - a systemic approach to decision-making under conditions of uncertainty
      - identifies available options when faced with a decision
      - predict the outcomes of each option
      - select decision that will yield the best pay off
    - - decision node
        
        a point where a choice of alternatives can be made
      - event branch
        
        alternatives paths and events that may occur
      - chance node
        
        a point where potential events can occur
      - terminal node
        
        a point where the end results (payoffs) of a particular pathway are calculated
    - - decision maker (Stephen Pauker)
      - CE tree (T. Pass)
      - SMLTREE (James Hollenberg)
      - Arborist: Decision Tree Software (Texas Instruments)
      - SMaL TREE (Pratt Medical Group)
      - Supertree (Strategic Decision Group)
      - TreeAge software
    - - identify the specific decision
      - specify alternatives
        
        what are the treatment options that we need?
        
        interventions not limited to health technologies and medicines, they can also include screenings, such as self-tests
      - draw the decision analysis structure
      - specify possible costs, outcomes, and probabilities
      - perform calculations
      - conduct sensitivity analysis
        
        a set of procedures in which the results of the study are recalculated using alternate values for some of the study's variables in order to test the sensitivity of the conclusions to these altered variable specifications
        
        tornado diagram
        
        used to compare impact of one-way sensitivity analysis
        
        lists all possible variable that have influence on the model
        
        threshold analysis
        
        identify the level within the range at which the decision switches
        
        causes of uncertainties
        
        incomplete information
        
        ignorance
        
        measurement errors
        
        inability to predict factors