7.2 Climate Change: Causes and Impacts
Feedback Loops
Negative Feedback
Positive Feedback
May be happen in tundra (seasonal ice cover at the edges of permanent glaciers and ice sheets)
Plants that trapped under permafrost release methane - they are unable to escape because ice covering - increase thawing of permafrost - increase in methane levels - increase global temperature
Melting of the polar ice caps - less ice - lower albedo - ice is reflective than water, less ice means less reflection
Other mechanisms
Rising temperatures - increased biomass decomposition - increased CO2 - GHG increase
Tropical deforestation - increase warming and drying - decline in the amount of rainforest
Increased forest cover in high latitudes - decrease albedo - increase warming
High level of precipitation - increased evaporation in low latitudes - increase snowfall on the polar ice caps - reduce global temperature
Increase in CO2 - increase plant growth due to increase level of photosynthesis - increase plant biomass and productivity - reduce CO2
Other Mechanisms
Burning - increase aerosols - they will absorb the solar radiation and prevent from reaching the Earth surface - global cooling
Impact Climate Change
To water
On oceans and sea levels
- Sea levels rise - ice melting and lead to increase the volume of sea water
The Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets are thinning - sea levels rise more
- If there is a threshold and it is exceeded, sea level could rise many metres
- e.g Bangladesh, the Maldives and the Netherlands would lose land area
- e.g Tuvalu would disappear completely
Oceans low albedo - absorb CO2 - they will be acidic
- May effect marine organisms, particularly corals
- When they warm, they absorb less CO2
Glaciers are melting into the seas - sea levels rise
It will slow down or stop the North Atlantic Drift and Gulf Stream by diluting the salt water
It could open up trade routes - make travel in the region easier - allow exploitation of undersea minerals and fossil fuels
Loss of glaciers ice leads to flooding and landslides
Adv
Provides freshwater supply to people living below the glacier and provide water to many major Asian rivers (River Ganges)
Human Activity
Weather
Climate
Volcanic Eruptions
- release huge quantities of ash which circulate in the atmosphere, cooling the Earth
- Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in 1990 lowering global temperatures for a few years
Forest Fires
release carbon dioxide, a GHG, but regrowth traps it again in carbon stores
Clouds
trap heat underneath them or reflect sunlight away from Earth above them
show long-term trends and changes if records are kept long enough
fluctuate wildly
varies from place to place, sometimes over very short distances
Ocean & Atmospheric Circulatory System
Human Activities
burn fossil fuels and keep livestock, both of which release GHGs
Climate Change
Long term change and has always happened
average weather pattern over many years for a location on Earth
daily result of changes of temperature, pressure and precipitation in atmosphere
fluctuations in solar insolation affecting temperature
changing proportions of gases in the atmosphere released by organisms
condition is a given place at any one time
measured by temperature, air pressure, precipitation (rain/snow etc), wind speed, humidity
usually about 30 years of data is required to give the climate of an area
climate patterns determine the types of organisms which can survive
allows organims to adapt to live in a given area
average of weather over a relatively longer period of time
Solar Radiation
- amount of solar radiation an area receives
- due to latitude and rotation on earth on its axis
- affects the circulation of the air above an area
Release GHG
(Enhanced Greenhouse Effect)
Water Vapour, H20
Carbon Dioxide, C02
Methane, CH4
Nitrous Oxide, N20
Hydrofluorocarbon, HFCs
most abundance GHG
Global Climate Model
Significant Debate
To people
To productivity (natural and agriculture)
positive feedback cycle
higher temps
more heat trapped
increased evaporation
Technocentric
Ecocentric
Anthropocentric
how scientists predict future climate change and assess the impacts of various environmental factors by using mathematical model
Climate models are mathematical representations of the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice and the sun.
Function:forecast future climate conditions based on various greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Function: By analyzing historical climate data and current trends, it help to anticipate its potential impacts on ecosystems and human societies.
RLE: Community Earth System Model (CESM) CESM simulates the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and sea ice, providing insights into climate variability and long-term trends.
More H2O
vapour in atm
- Al Gore (Eco)
• focus preserving natural environment, biodiversity and intrinsic value of the natural world as well as the ethical responsibility to protect ecosystems.
- Bjorn Lomborg (Anthropo/Techno)
• focus on human well-being and technocentric reliance on technological solutions.
- The Stern Report
(Techno/Eco)
• focus economic rationality while emphasise the need to protect the environment, acknowledging the role of market mechanisms and technological innovation, but it also reflects an ecocentric concern for the long-term health of the planet
Key Points
• Urgency of Action:
Eco views, like Gore’s, stress immediate and strong action to protect ecosystems, while techno views (Lomborg) might argue for a more measured approach.
• Economic Considerations:
Anthropo views, such as Lomborg’s, focus on the economic costs of action versus inaction, whereas the Stern Report attempts to balance these considerations with environmental concerns.
• Technological Solutions: Techno, like Lomborg, place trust in technology to solve climate issues, whereas ecocentrics like Gore may be more skeptical of relying solely on technology without addressing underlying consumption patterns and environmental degradation.
Arguments
through his documentary “An Inconvenient Truth,” emphasizes the urgent need to address climate change as a moral and environmental issue.
human actions are causing significant harm to the planet, leading to catastrophic consequences if not addressed.
Arguments
comprehensive review on the economics of climate change, argues that the costs of inaction on climate change far outweigh the costs of taking action.
while grounded in economic analysis (may seen as anthropo), advocates for strong and immediate action to reduce GHGs.
investment in sustainable technologies and policies will ultimately benefit both the environment and the economy.
Arguments
while climate change is a real issue in his book “The Skeptical Environmentalist,” it is often overstated, and the costs of addressing it through drastic measures might outweigh the benefits.
suggests that resources might be better spent on other global issues like poverty and disease, which could yield more immediate benefits to humanity.
emphasises the role of technology and innovation in mitigating climate impacts without compromising economic growth.
- Impact on Natural Ecosystems
• Biodiversity Loss: Climate change disrupts ecosystems by altering temperature and precipitation patterns, leading to species extinction. For example, coral reefs in the Great Barrier Reef are experiencing mass bleaching due to rising sea temperatures, threatening marine biodiversity.
• Habitat Degradation: Extreme weather events, like the increasing frequency of wildfires in the Amazon rainforest, are destroying habitats, reducing the ability of these ecosystems to provide essential services like carbon storage and water regulation.
- Impact on Plant Productivity
• Altered Growth Conditions: Changes in temperature and rainfall affect plant growth. For instance, vineyards in California are seeing reduced grape quality due to increased heatwaves, impacting wine production.
• Shifts in Growing Seasons: Warmer winters and unpredictable springs in Europe have disrupted the growing seasons for crops like wheat and barley, affecting both yield and quality.
- Impact on Agriculture
• Reduced Crop Yields: In sub-Saharan Africa, increased drought frequency has led to significant declines in maize production, threatening food security in the region.
• Pests and Diseases: The spread of the fall armyworm in Africa, fueled by warmer temperatures, has devastated maize crops, leading to major economic losses for farmers.
• Water Scarcity: The ongoing drought in California has severely restricted water availability for agriculture, forcing farmers to let fields lie fallow and reducing overall food production.