Economic and industry analysis
Economic analysis
Industry analysis
Process of assesing the general state of the economy and its potential effects on security returns
Key economic variables
Interest rate
Employment
Inflation
Budget deficit
Industrial production
Fiscal policy
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Monetary policy
Economic analysis and business cycle
Business cycle concentrate on;
Alternative monetary series
Cynical indicator approach
- Faces different periods of expansion and contraction
Coincident indicators
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
Selected series
Happen 'before' any changes in aggregate economic
Economic series that have peak and troughs that roughly coincide with peak and troughs in business cycle or events that happen during market change.
Economic series that have peak and troughs after those aggregate economy or events happen after market change.
Economic series that expected to influence aggregate economic activity but don't fall into one of the 3 main groups
- Balance of Payment
- Federal surplus or deficit
- Declines rate of growth of money supply - Contractions
- Increasing rate of growth of money supply- Expansions