Politics 4: Voting Behaviour and the Media
1979 General Election
Callaghan Labour PM
Context
1978-9 winter of dicontent
Union power too strong?
Strikes
rubbish not being collected
bodies not being buried (in parts)
discussion on announcing state of emergency
debating on getting army help
limit pay rises to reduce inflation
Media hostility
Nicknamed 'Sunny Jim'
socialism- government control
Thatcher conservative
lower taxes
free enterprise
firmness with unions
incentives
defence
used media alot to win
budgetting of nation with a housewife effect/ approach
pro Europe (at the start) EU=EEC
Cross connections with USA
Got a 43 majority to conservatives (144 majority at peak)
Liberals - leader Steel
1997 General Elections
John Major
Maastricht treaty
Cop outs for UK
Social chapter
single currency
exchange rate mechanism
was to keep currencies in Europe aligned
£ tried to follow strong Deutsch mark but failed (joined too late)
So £ fell out of ERM damaging Majors rep and the economy
All caused divisions in the conservative party
Tony Blair
Third way
'Education, Education, Education'
Pro Europe - single market
Union Jacks and red rose symbolised growth
Won 179 seat majority in 1997
Percieved as young attractive and in command with a clear vision
Percieved as grey, unexciting and weak
Other
Good 71% turnout
Issues were the NHS and the state of education
recession of late 1980s and early 1990s
last general election to be totally dominated
2017 General election
Corbyn Labour
Acceptance of nuclear weapon renewal
Nationalisation of Royal Mail, water companies, railway and energy
Higher living wage
Welfare commitment
Acceptance for needing more police
Social justice
more investment in health/ education "care for all"
soft brexit
Anti iraq war of Blair
Accused of being pro Hamas/ IRA
May Conservative
Said would deliver brexit and can make success of it
ver experienced ex home secretary
social care attempt to put forward a long term solution
National insurance changes appeared to change policy
Immigration
leaving EU will help she said
Challenge free movement
"No deal is better than a bad deal"
only got 318 seats
2019 General Election
Johnson Conservative
Increase NHS budget by 23023-24
increase threshold to begin paying tax
set minimum funding to £5000 per pupil for state secondary schools
'Get Brexit done'
Won 43.6% of vote and 56.2% of seats (365/650) 80 seat majority
Broke midlands 'red wall'
Blythe Valley turned blue for first time since 1950s
Corbyn Labour
Increase health budget
hold second referendum on brexit
raise minimum wage to £10
introduce national care service
bring forward net zero target
got 31.1% of seats and 32.1% of vote
Worst performance of labour since 1930s-59
Jo Swinson leader of Lib Dems looses her seat
Voting pattern
Social Class
then
used to be strongly associated
1964 64% of DE voted labour
1979 80% of people voted with their social class
now
class dealignment
2019 41% of DE voted Tory and 39% voted labour
2019 30% of AB voted labour despite labour poor performance
Party voting
then
people used to stay loyal to parties despite change in background
meant parties had core voters
now
change in economic and class basis since 1970s saw rise in partisan dealignment
means less loyal party members and more values
2017 to 2019 many switched who they vote for over issues like brexit
Gender
then
conservative 'housewife'
1979 47% of women voted tory and 35% voted labour
now
more women working in industry
since 1997 women more likely to vote labour than men
more focus on social issues from labour
women age 18-25 65% vote labour in 2019 only 47% of men
education
then
those with acedemic qualifications were middle class and therefore would vote conservative due to class bias
now
education has liberalising affect
more tory support from lower class
2018 50% went to higher education
2017 labour and lib dem (47%) and UKIP and Tory (41%)
region
then wealth, income, prosperity not evenly distrubuted
SE wealthy and NE and wales deprived
not changed with time
links to class bias
Labour dominate in Scotland (pre SNP) 50% in 2015
Labour dominate wales 49% in 2017
Age
then
more industrial job so age and job position didn't matter leading to more conservative in youth
1979 42% tory and 41% labour age 18-25
less property ownerships so less dependant on state so voting tory
now
more young people vote labour due to less responsibility, job status (wages) and more forward outlook overall progressive views
2017 18-25 turnout 54% and 65+ was 69%
2019 21% 18-24 for torys
2019 57% tory 65+
Ethnicity
BAME always favoured labour due to tory anti immigration etc
1997 18% tory 70% labour
2019 20% tory 64% labour
2019 tory windrush scandal
Individual voting theories
valance
choose based on who they think will run the country the best
which party is the most responsible
leaders who are strong and desirable (not Brown and Miliband)
eg Labour response to 2008 financial crisis
linked to defeats in 2010 and 2015
Jul 2024 election based around gov response to Brexit and Covid
Rational choice
people vote based on their own interest
voter look at parties manifestos and various policies and what will benefit themselves the most
more of a liberal democracy
reduce voting decision based on logic
Issue voting
vote on based on a single issue
eg pensioners voting for who promises highest pension rate
eg environmental, brexit
parties have more green policies to counteract support for green party
tory become more euro skeptic to counteract support for UKIP
1983 falklands pushed more people to vote tory
Turnout
clear correlation between higher turnout and closer results (eg 2017)
turnout is higher in marginal seats where result is uncertain
Age
1992- 2015 voting in young people fell by 19%
Old people tory advantage may make younger people give up on tory advantage
disillusion with conventional political
more interest in specific issues not broad party policy
finding other ways to get involved in politics eg e petitions
some feel as if they agree with no party
high turnout for referendums (75% scottish independance 16-17)
Class
AB more likely to vote then DE helping tories
they think outcome wont make difference DE
Influence of the Media
Broadcasting
have to remain neutral by law
used as a source of info
not shown to have significant impact eg Nick Clegg 2010 good performance but had poor performance in election
Used by parties to get message across
The Press
1992 tories won The Sun newspapers and argued 'it the sun that won it'
Press vcan have political bias
conservative newspapers - telegraph, the Sun, the Daily mail
Labour newpapers - the mirror , the guardian
Argued don't have much affect (murdoch) and COrbyn still got 40% of vote despite only have 1 newspaper supporting him
Social Media
Increased use by gov
Web in unregulated unlike press
impact relies on way it is reported eg Russia influence during EU referendums
Increase of fake news eg vaccines and 5G masts
Public opinion polls
used since 1940s after correct prediction in 1945
tend to over stimulate support for labour
very wrong in 2014 scottish independance, 2015 and 2017 elections, eu referendum and underplayed tory victory in 2019