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POWER - Coggle Diagram
POWER
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4.3 Polarity: the various ways in which power is distributed within the international system. the nature of the balance of power at a given time.
BALANCE OF POWER: the suggestion that national security is enhanced when military capability is distributed, meaning that no one state is strong enough to dominate all others
UNIPOLARITY/HEGEMONY:
- a distribution of power which one state excercises most of the cultural, economic and military influence.
- realists view this as the natural consequence of states seeking power in an anarchic system.
- this hegemon is often the 'world's police officer', intervening in conflicts between states.
- liberals fear that this results in the emergence of a power hungry hegemon, leading to a security dilemma, resulting in insecurity and hostility and therefore conflict.
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ADVANTAGES:
- post cold war, the US provided a sense of peace because it advanced its ideals of free-market liberal democracy
- realists view this as the natural consequence of states seeking power in an anarchic system.
- a hegemon can act as a global policeman to encourage stability, e.g. US prevented ethnic cleansing in Kosovo
- USA's unrivalled outreach: detered lesser powers from seeking to increase regional influence.
- due to economic interdependence, it has not been in the interest of states to challenge the hegemon
DISADVANTAGES:
- can be unstable due, emerging powers often resent the hegemonic status of one state, e.g. Germany's belligerence leading to WW1.
- liberals fear that this results in the emergence of a power hungry hegemon, leading to a security dilemma, resulting in insecurity and hostility and therefore conflict
- China does not accept US hegemony, and has become assertive = instability
- REALISTS: states seek to maximise their own security, and will feel limited by another state's claim to global hegemony
- lack of constraint on the hegemon may encourage it to act in defiance of international norms or behaviour e.g. Iraq invasion without UNSC mandate, Guantanamo Bay, USA refusal to sign up to the ICC.
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BIPOLARITY:
- a system of world order in which the majority of global economic, military and cultural influence is held between two states.
- e.g. the Cold war: USA/Soviet Union
ADVANTAGES:
- WALTZ: promoted peace since neither side was capable of eliminating the other.
- realists: natural tendency in world order, states seek to establish a balance to curb hegemonic ambition. states less likely to seek hegemony, achieving an equilibrium and therefore peace/stability.
DISADVANTAGES:
- can be destabilising and dangerous
- almost led to nuclear war during 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
- despite hegemonic ambitions of the two poles being curbed in the short term, there may become a point when one is able to emerge as the dominant power. this results in an arms race, creating tension and insecurity = security dilemma.
COLD WAR :
- Between 1945-1989 NATO and the Warsaw Pact dominated world politics.
- conflict would have been Mutually Assured Destriction
- Western liberal democracy and capitalism directly opposed Eastern Communism.
- Soviet Union matched US military capability, but could not compete economically.
POSITIVES OF BIPOLARITY:
- MAD : prevention of direct conflict, low risk of 'all out' war
- both sides committed to ensuring a balance of power meaning that war could not be risked
- curbed ambition of other states trying to become hegemonic
- no direct 'hot' conflict
- promoted cooperation as both sides knew the only way to progress their interests was to cooperate.
NEGATIVES OF BIPOLARITY IN CW
- Security dilemma: tensions building, each side mobilising before improvement
- wars by proxy e.g. Vietnam War
- hinders global progression
- paranoia can make domestic politics more oppressive
- LIBERALS argue: bipolarity destabilises the community, and is dangerous since each side will continually advance their own interests at the expense of the other
- long periods of antagonism and distrust
- not the conditions for lasting and meaningful peace
MULTIPOLARITY: an international system in which no single state dominates, with a number of relatively evenly matched powers. no one power claims to have hegemonic status
POSITIVES:
- States more likely to cooperate in multilateral organs of global governance.
- multipolarity would bring stability if nation states set aside egoism
- the existance of evenly matched states provides greater opportunity for cooperation than either bipolarity or unipolarity.
NEGATIVES:
- likely to have 5/6 centres of power, not grouped into a tight alliance
- REALISTS: multipolarity represents the least stable distribution of global power since it is more fluid.
- RISK TAKING: balance of power will be short lived. WW2 broke out due to a multipolar world. germany, italy and japan were prepared to risk rebalancing global relations in their favour.
- each centre of power can follow its own best interests, continually shifting distribution of power between them.
- nations more likely to take a risk because there isnt a large power to intervene.
- states seek to maximise their influence at the expense of others.
DOES CHINA CHALLENGE US HEGEMONY:
- annual growth rates 8-10% a year for 30 years = x2 the levels of western economies
- weathered the global financial crisis, one of the only countries to run a surplus
- world's largest population
- military/nuclear capability, 2nd largst military. increased presence in south china sea.
- membership of WTO and G20, g20 now more important than G7.
- Belt and Road
BUT
- China's ecomomy is dependent on cheap labour, it hasn't yet made the transition to a high tech economy, large amountd of poverty, aging population, undemocratic (supression), spends half of US military spending in terms of percentage of GDP (2% vs 4%)
4.1 Types of Power
HARD POWER: a state utilising military/economic capabilility to achieve what they want. a coercive power.
MILTARY EXAMPLES
- China's increase in military spending: 2009 $70bn - present $229 bn
- Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine
- Bush's 'war on terror'. E.G IRAQ 2003
ECONOMIC EXAMPLES
- Longstanding economic sanctions against South Africa (1986-94) by USA, Japan, EEC in an attempt to end the apartheid regime of racial segregation
- Economic sanctions and freezing of assets against Russia from a number of countries following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
LIMITATIONS?
- Russia/Ukraine ongoing despite sanctions
- Iraq war weakened USA's position in the Middle East and arguably has given rise to more terrorism and instability in the region.
- China may have expanded military capability, but it has not been able to assert claims to the South China Sea or establish military superiority in the region as US bases in neighbouring areas effectively encircle China.
- Miltiary power declining due to the rise of economic interdependence, states more likely to resort to economic sanctions/trade agreements to extend influence.
SOFT POWER: based upon attraction and identification, sharing common values and ideas.
E.G. UK:
- english the most common second language in the world, spoken by 1 billion people, a 1/7th of the world's population.
- this is due to British imperialism and the global influence of the US.
- British culture is revered and admired
- Britain helped to establish the Council of Europe in 1948
E.G. THE EU:
- a significant soft power due to its economic influence: creation of a single market, removing non-tariff barriers, free movement of labour and capital
- has a high representative, enabling the EU to be represented in international organisations such as the IMF.
- involvement in 30 missions and operations to help states with security, border management and humanitarian aid
- involvement in negotiations with Iran in 2013: International Atomic Energy Agency's inspectors to have access to nuclear weapons programme, resulting in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed by the 5 permanent members of the UNSC (plus Germany, the EU and Iran) = USA faled to achieve this alone via sanctions. this took 12 years but was eventually successful.
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4.2 Classifications of power.a state can derive power through:
- CAPABILITIES: resources it can draw upon, e.g. population, wealth, military capability. a poor country with a small populatuon can never become a military power and will never be able to exercise hard power.
- RELATIONSHIPS: relational power, making the right strategic alliances or joining international institutions can confer power on a state far beyond its resources.
- STRUCTURES: control of knowledge, financial security and production networks. The USA has structural power because it is the architect and leading power of many IGOS.
GREAT POWER:
Kenneth Walz uses the following criteria to define a great power:
- population and territory
- resources
- economic development
- political stability
- competence and military strength.
the ability to project power beyond the state's geographical region.
- 1922: the british empire covered nearly a quarter of the globe and ruled 1/5th of the world's population
SUPER POWER:
- a state with a dominant position in international relations, pre-eminient among great powers, and characterised by its unparalleled ability to exert influence or project power on a global scale.
- emerged following the cold war. USA/SOVIET RUSSIA displayed true mobility of power, forming blocs which they dominated = displaying their spheres of influence.
USA:
- allied with Japan to prevent spread of communsim
- took an active interest in preventing the spread in Central/South America, sponsoring right wing opponents of Salvador Allende in Chile and providing arms to right-wing rebels in Nicaragua
- long supported Israel to act as a counterwright to Soviet-backed regimes in Egypt, Syria and Afghanistan
SOVIET UNION:
- Provided military and economic support to communists in Korea and Vietnam
- supported communist Cuba - stationed Russian nuclear missiles, leading to 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
INDIA???
A SUPERPOWER?
- most populated nation
- early 2020s: India's economy grew so rapidly that it moved into the five global economies
- lithium rich
- developing a 'global view' = being the voice of smaller states, confidence to take a different stance on Russia/Ukraine
- tech and research/development = microsoft
NOT A SUPERPOWER YET:
- protectionist economy
- investment from the USA to India to mass produce products, inorganic growth, reliance on other states
- lacks the democracy and human rights record - supression.
EMERGING POWERS: states with a growing economy, giving the potential for it to become an important global actor.
BRICS, Australia, Iran, Mexico, Poland, Turkey, G20