1. Power and developments

4.1 Different types of power

Hard power: Military and economic

  • Hard power is command or coercive power - the ability to make others do what you want, or to use a form of incentive to get what you want
  • Hard power encompasses military and economic power and coercion

Soft power: democratic and cultural

  • Soft power is based on attraction and identification, sharing common values and ideas or 'cultural power'
  • The EU and UK are widely recognised as leading soft powers in the international system

The EU

  • The creation of the single market makes the EU an attractive marketplace - the removal of all non-tariff barriers to trade goods, free movement of labour and capital, and 20 member states sharing the same currency (the Eurozone)
  • The creation of the role of High Commissioner, a foreign minister for the EU, enables it to send a representative to meetings of international organisations, such as the IMF, G7 and G20
  • The EU has been involved in operations to help states with security, customs and border management - the EU began negotiations with Iran in 2013 for the International Atomic Energy Agency's inspectors to have access to its nuclear weapons programme, culminating in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - something the US had failed to achieve through sanctions
  • Economic power involves inducements or incentives to a state to act according to the wishes of another state
  • Economic sanctions are commercial and financial penalties applied by one or more countries against a targeted country, including trade barriers, tariffs and restrictions on financial transactions
  • There were long-running sanctions against South Africa (1986-94) by the USA, Japan and the European Economic Community in an attempt to end the racist apartheid regime - this prevented trade in certain commodities and financial services
  • Since 2014, the EU has imposed sanctions against Russia over its military support for Russian nationalist separatists in Ukraine - this includes the freezing of assets held in the EU by individuals and entities associated with Putin's government, and a ban on certain exports to Russia
  • The USA and EU were the first to insert clauses into their trade agreements protecting human rights and workers' conditions

Limits of hard power

  • Sanctions have been unsuccessful in bringing about a withdrawal of Russian support for the separatists in eastern Ukraine
  • The consensus over the impact of the Iraq War for the USA is that it reduced its power in the Middle East and has even given rise to more terrorism and instability in the region
  • Sanctions against the apartheid regime in South Africa were not enforced by many important trading countries such as the UK
  • Military power is the capacity of a state to commit an aggressive act against another state, including full-scale conflict
  • As China's economic power has grown, it has been building up its military capability - military spending was $150 billion in 2016
  • Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008 in retaliation to Georgia's suppression of Russian nationalist separatists in South Ossetia
  • The Iraq War of 2003 was fought to achieve a number of foreign policy objectives for the USA, but its main intention was to subdue the US' enemies in the Middle East
  • Military power is declining as a method of pursuing a state's interests - interstate conflict is decreasing and economic interdependence is rising
  • States are more likely to resort to economic sanctions or trade agreements to extend their influence - in 2016, European states chose to use economic sanctions as their main tool in persuading Russia to withdraw its support for the Russian separatists

The UK

  • English is the most common second language in the world and is spoken by over 1 billion people - this is a product of British imperialism and the global influence of the US
  • The UK has taken a leading role in the formation of international organisations - Britain helped to establish the Council of Europe in 1948, which produced the ECHR and ECtHR, and is a member of the UNSC
  • Britain is also a leading member of the International Olympic Committee
  • Liberals would argue that the increase in the number of international organisations and the growth in world trade means that soft power has the potential to be a more effective way for states to promote their interests than military force or economic penalties

Smart power

  • Smart power is a term coined by Joseph Nye and is a combination of hard and soft power
  • Nye argues the most effective foreign policy employs both hard and soft power strategies
  • Nye uses the example of the Taliban government in Afghanistan - hard power and force was required to remove the regime and isolate their ally Al-Qaeda
  • However in developing relationships with the mainstream Muslim world, such as Saudi Arabia and Libya, the use of hard power would alienate them - therefore soft power is a more effective strategy

4.2 Differing significance of states in global affairs and how and why
state power is classified

State power classifications

Great powers

  • A great power is a state that is recognised as having the ability and expertise to exert its influence on a global scale
  • The term originated when it was used to describe the combatants of the Napoleonic Wars - Austria, France, Great Britain, Prussia and Russia
  • Kenneth Waltz has defined great powers using the criteria of: population and territory, resources, economic development, political stability, competence and military strength

Superpowers

  • A superpower is defined as a state with a dominant position in international relations, pre-eminent among great powers, and characterised by its unparalleled ability to exert influence or project power on a global scale
  • The term emerged in the aftermath of WW2 to describe the two main actors in the Cold War - the US and the Soviet Union
  • What distinguished the US and the Soviet was their mobility of power - both countries had formed blocs in which they dominated
  • NATO was formed in 1949, led by the US and included many Western European states, the alliance was mainly a mutual defence arrangement against the Soviet
  • Likewise the Warsaw Pact was formed by the Soviet to protect itself and Eastern European states against attack from a NATO country

Emerging powers

  • An emerging power is a state considered to be rising, primarily in economic power and influence
  • It is generally agreed that a key characteristic of an emerging power is a growing economy, which gives a state the potential to be an important global actor
  • There might be no emerging powers without globalisation - growing international trade requires the management of trading relations throughout international organisations, which brings states into closer contact with each other, providing opportunities to exert influence economically and politically
  • As well as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), Argentina, Australia, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria and South Korea are all recognised as emerging powers

4.3 Polarity

The implications of different polar structures

Bipolarity

  • Bipolarity is an international system that revolves around two poles or major power blocs - there must be a near-equity or balance of power between these two
  • For realists, bipolarity is a natural tendency in the world order - states seek to establish this to curb the hegemonic ambitions of all states - they believe this leads to peace and stability
  • For liberals, bipolarity does not curb the ambitions of states as there may come a point when circumstances allow one pole to emerge as the dominant power - in anticipation of this, the two power blocs vie with each other, often through an arms race, leading to tension and insecurity (eg Cuban Missile Crisis 1962)

Multipolarity

  • Multipolarity is an international system in which there are three or more power centres
  • Realists argue that multipolarity is unstable - as the number of actors increases, so does the number of possible conflicts - realists describe this as anarchical polarity and believe this can lead to uncertainty and the security dilemma
  • Liberals argue that a multipolar world order promotes multilateralism, with greater cooperation and integration - this is known as interdependent polarity
  • States realise the futility of competition and conflict because the potential gains are relatively small, whereas cooperation produces benefits for all

A multipolar world order

  • In the 1970s, Japan and Germany emerged as leading economies, in the 1980s, the European Economic Community (now the EU) began to be recognised as a force in international relations
  • More recently the BRICS have broken into the top twenty most developed countries in the world
  • China's economy has grown rapidly since the market reforms of Deng Xiaoping beginning in 1978, in 2009, China became the world's largest exporter
  • China became a nuclear power in 1964 and has the second largest military behind the US
  • China's membership of the G20 has also led to this organisation being seen as more important than the G7

Unipolarity

  • Unipolarity is the international system in which there is one dominant pole
  • Unipolarity is where there is a lack of constraints or potential rivals to the one pre-eminent power, state or pole in the world
  • Hegemony is when a single power is overwhelmingly dominant
  • Realists see unipolarity and the pursuit of hegemony as the natural consequence of states seeking power and security in an anarchic system
  • Unipolarity can have benefits for the wider international system - the dominant power can act as the 'world's police officer', intervening in conflicts between other states or preventing human rights abuses in civil conflicts
  • The hegemon can be the guarantor of economic and financial stability by setting and maintaining the ground rules for economic behaviour
  • Liberals however fear the emergence of a predatory hegemon that desires power at all costs, other powers come to fear the dominant power, leading to a security dilemma - creating insecurity and hostility, and inevitably conflict

A unipolar world order

  • The US has the world's largest economy - the US' GDP was $25 trillion in 2022
  • The US' military budget was $850 billion in 2024
  • The US has structural power as the chief architect of international institutions such as the UN and IMF
  • American values such as democracy and human rights are embraced across the world

The changing nature of world order since 2000

The UN

  • Strengthening of the UN's powers threatens state sovereignty - the behaviour of the permanent members of the UNSC, particularly the US and Russia's use of the veto, demonstrates how it is often difficult to reach agreement as states often seek to protect their national interests - the US continually vetoes resolutions criticising Israel and Russia vetoed a resolution condemning its annexation of Crimea in 2014
    The US and Russia
  • Relations with the US deteriorated as NATO expanded to incorporate the former Warsaw Pact countries, Russia has also disapproved of Western intervention in Kosovo and support for its recognition as an independent state
  • The US, through its war on terror and promotion of Western democracy has unleashed destabilising forces
  • The Arab Spring started in Tunisia in 2010 and spread across North Africa and the Middle East - culminating in revolutions in Syria, Libya and Yemen, civil uprisings in Egypt and Bahrain, and pro-democracy protests in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman and Saudi Arabia

4.4 Different systems of government

Democratic states

  • A true democracy is one where the government is elected by citizens in elections that are free and fair, are free from intimidation, count each person's vote the same and have a choice of candidates/range of parties
  • Democratic states abide by the rule of law and citizens have various rights and freedoms, which can be exercised without interference from the state
  • There will be a range of pressure groups, allowing people to promote their interests on single issues, and citizens' human and civil rights are protected through an independent judiciary

Semi-democratic states

  • States are considered semi-democratic if they combine democratic and authoritarian elements - they have democratic characteristics such as elections and representation, but elections may not be free and fair, and representation may be skewed to allow one party to dominate
  • There will be a constitution and rule of law, but the judiciary may not be independent and the constitution may be subverted
  • In theory there may be freedom of speech and pressure groups may be allowed, along with a range of political parties, but the main media outlets may be state-controlled and political protest may be suppressed
  • In Russia, there are regular elections of the Duma (parliament) and the presidency, but these elections have been subject to allegations of ballot rigging and intimidation

Non-democratic states

  • Non-democratic states lack democratic characteristics such as free and fair elections and the choice of alternative candidates and political parties
  • China claims to be a democracy - there are elections to the National People's Congress and there is some choice of candidates, however rival political parties and pressure groups are banned
  • Congress debates issues put forward by the State Council (the executive), but rarely attempts to amend or delay legislation, congress also does not scrutinise the activities of the State Council
  • China also has no freedom of speech, the media is state-owned and criticism of the regime is suppressed

Autocratic states

  • Autocracy means rule by a single person or body
  • Autocrats in the 20th and 21st centuries have been political leaders that either came to power through democratic elections or violent revolutions
  • Autocratic states ban opposition parties and brutally suppress protest
  • Membership of the political party may be necessary for holding government office and certain occupations
  • The leader is not subject to any form of accountability and enjoys cult status - this status is claimed on the basis of superhuman qualities or divine appointment
  • The Ba'ath Party came to power in Syria in 1963, and Bashar al-Assad has ruled as president since 2000
  • Syria maintains the appearance of democratic institutions and representation, however there is strict censorship of the media and education by the Ba'ath party, and many reports of human rights abuses

Failed states

  • A failed state is a state that is unable to operate as a viable political unit
  • A state is identified as failed when: a state loses control of its territory, a government loses legitimacy and lacks authority to make collective decisions, a state is unable to provide basic services to citizens eg healthcare and education, a state is unable to interact with other states as a member of the international community
  • Congo, Eritrea, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and South Sudan have all been identified as failed states
  • Somalia became a failed state when the Siad Barre regime collapsed in 1991 and civil war broke out between rival ethnic groups, and the country has since become a base for Islamic fundamentalist group Al-Shabab
  • Provision of basic public services is very limited and the country has very poor healthcare and education systems

Rogue states

  • A rogue state is a state that is considered a pariah by the rest of the international community - rogue states defy international agreements and shun membership of international organisations, or are excluded because of their uncooperative behaviour
  • North Korea's autocratic Stalinist-Communist political system follows the juche principle of self-sufficiency
  • Movement in and out of the country is tightly controlled, the media is heavily censored and mobile phones are banned
  • North Korea has developed a nuclear weapons programme to deter South Korea and the USA, but its posturing has led the USA and South Korea to strengthen their own military capability in the area - leading to the security dilemma

Consequences for the global order of different types of states

  • According to Kant's Democratic Peace Theory, the increasing number of democratic states is an opportunity for peace and cooperation, he argued people do not like war and would not vote for representatives who support conflict
  • Fukuyama claimed that conflict in the world would decline as more states adopted liberal democracy and capitalism
  • Europe and North America are areas of the world which have had long periods of peace - supporting the claim wars between democracies are far less common
  • The values of democracy and its structures are thought to promote 'zones of peace', such as the EU - the sharing of democratic values creates a cultural bond between states
  • A great strength of democracy is that changes in government take place without violent revolution
  • North Korea, a rogue state, views its neighbours as potential threats, which it seeks to minimise through self-imposed seclusion and the development of nuclear deterrent
  • Its unique political system makes dialogue with other countries difficult, which fosters misunderstanding and mutual suspicion
  • States react by building up their arms and holding military exercises in the vicinity to deter potential attack, however North Korea sees this as a threat and often launches missiles to demonstrate its ability to defend itself
  • Undemocratic and autocratic states threaten global peace when democratic states become concerned about the treatment of citizens by the governments of these states
  • China and Syria have been criticised by countries such as the UK and the USA for their treatment of political opponents - in Syria, these critics have recognised and supported rebel groups in their bid to topple the Assad regime
  • The international community does not always agree on what action to take to protect human rights - this can lead to delays in humanitarian intervention, which can allow situations to fester and spill over into neighbouring states
  • UN resolutions calling for intervention in the Syrian conflict in favour of the uprising have been blocked by China and Russia - resulting in a protracted civil war and a migrant crisis in Europe

4.5 Development and spread of liberal economies, the rule of law and democracy


  • The principle of the rule of law was established by King John's Magna Carta in 1215
  • The English Civil War (1642-49) began a gradual process of democratisation in England
  • The creation of new states in central and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of WW1 provided opportunities for the spread of liberal democracy
  • Eastern European countries became able to complete the transition to liberal democracy after the collapse of the Soviet Union
  • The acceleration of globalisation in the late 20th century due to the promotion of free trade and liberal economic policy by the IMF and WTO has led to more states adopting the neo-liberal economic orthodoxy
  • However the developed states have benefitted most from the expansion of liberal democracy and continue to enjoy significant advantages over developing states
  • The Arab Spring, which attempted to spread democracy to the Arab world, has faltered in Libya, Egypt, Syria and Yemen
  • A rival ideology has emerged in fundamentalist Islam, as promoted by Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, to challenge liberal democracy

4.6 Impact of world order on conflict, poverty, human rights and the environment

Conflict

  • Realists view power transition and therefore multipolarity as unstable and leading to conflict, as emerging powers seek to challenge the hegemon
  • Liberals argue a multipolar world can encourage cooperation through global governance, reducing conflict - in a more evenly balanced world no one power is able to unilaterally impose its will on the others

Poverty

  • Globalisation has increased free-market capitalism which has greatly reduced poverty - as developing countries have entered into global trade
  • However many in poor-resourced countries are exploited by globalisation - neocolonial powers utilise cheap labour in these countries to increase profit - increasing inequality and poverty

Human rights

  • During the rise of the New World Order and unipolarity in the 1990s, the US began policing protection of human rights in other states
  • The US expelled forces of Saddam Hussein when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 with UN backing
  • The US sent troops into Somalia in 1992 to ensure humanitarian relief - however US troops were withdrawn in 1993 following the Battle of Mogadishu

The environment

  • Rapid economic growth of emerging powers has led to environmental damage due to heavy industrialisation, deforestation and increasing pollution - the developing world have prioritised economic growth over sustainable development
  • However the 2015 Paris Agreement demonstrated the developed world's awareness of environmental dangers

The UAE

  • The UAE has actively sought to increase its soft power in recent years
  • During the Covid pandemic, the UAE rolled out mass vaccination quickly and became the first country in the Middle East to produce vaccines
  • It also began global vaccine distribution, primarily to Asia, Africa and the Middle East
  • The UAE is one of the largest donors of foreign aid as a percentage of GDP
  • The UAE has positioned itself as an international host - Dubai hosted COP28 in 2023