voting behaviour and the media
age
social class
region
gender
ethnicity
non social factors
valence
party leadership
salience
role and impact of the media in elections
the press
press influence between elections
TV and TV debates
role of social media
C1 - supervisory, clerical, administrative and professional occupations - teacher, office manager
C2 - skilled manual occupations - plumber, hairdresser
AB - higher and intermediate managerial etc occupations - banker, doctor
DE - semi skilled and unskilled occupations, unemployed and lowest grade occupations - bar staff, unemployed
class is the basis of party politics all else is embellishment and detail - peter pulzer
AB largely vote cons and DE largely vote labour - perception that those parties would best represent interests
1964 GE - lab won 64% DE cons won 78% AB
BUT class dealignment has resulted in partisan dealignment - reduced importance of social class
2019 GE lab won 39% DE cons won 45% AB
important?
yes
no
2019 - education might be new reflection of class - 58% with GCSEs or below vote con and 43% of those with degree vote labour
significant role in how political parties fight campaigns - cons target 'left behind towns' in 2017/19
class divide expressed in more subtle way - BME voters in low paid jobs might vote labour, DE voters in kent might vote con
2019 cons won support from all social grades
class no longer as important - no clear divide
2017 GE DE vote split 43% con 47% lab
undercut by class dealignment and issue based voting
evaluated
class no longer reliable predictor of how person might vote
BUT class based voting can manifest through other characteristics - significance of class cannot be completely discounted
age vote appears highly significant - particularly 2017/19
2017
2019
18-24
27% con
62% lab
70+
19% lab
69% con
70+
18-24
67% con
14% lab
21% con
56% lab
age not always been as significant
1983 - 18-24 demographic split - 42% con 33% lab
BUT by 2017 lab enjoyed majority support from 18-39 yo
2019 yougov - for every 10 years older likelihood to vote lab decreases by 8 points
cons substantial support among 65+ with 61%
gap between how young people and old people vote greater than gap between social classes - age = most significant indicator of voting behaviour
BUT only in last two elections
voting by region in 2019 GE
east midlands
southeast
london
wales
northeast
scotland
38% con
42% lab
32% con
48% lab
18% lab
45% SNP
25% con
40% lab
36% con
54% con
22% lab
54% con
31% lab
18% lib dem
regional voting patters and brexit - issues affect on regional voting
summary
lab has strong support in london - plurality of support in wales and north of eng
cons strong support in south east of eng - fares well in east of eng
SNP dominates in scotland
lab - lost 10.4 in leave constituencies lost 6.4 in remain
lib dem - gained 2.6 in leave and 4.7 in remain
cons - gained 6.1 in leave constituencies lost 2.9 in remain
summary
labour - performed poorly but did far worse in leave constituencies
lib dems - campaigned to stop brexit did better in remain than leave constituencies
pro brexit con party performed better in leave areas than remain
2019 - 46% men and 44% women voted con - 31% men and 35% women voted lab
clear gender divide only appears in 18-24 - 65% of women lab compared to 46% of men
little to no impact on voting intentions
not a gaping gender divide in how people vote - roughly similar proportions of men and women for con and lab
both men and women in this age group still voted more heavily for labour in 2019 - age/gender more significant?
major predictor of how people will vote
BME more likely to vote labour than for other parties
white voters more likely to vote con
voting patterns for BME
2015
2017
2010
2019
16% con/ 60% lab/ 20% lib dem
23% con/ 65% lab/ 4% lib dem
19% con/ 73% lab/ 6% lib dem
20% con/ 64% lab/ 12% lib dem
significant?
yes
no
lab maintained support from BME voters - 64% of votes from BME in 2019 compared to 20% for cons
non white voters favour lab - two historical reasons why
2015 cons enjoyed 11 point lead over lab among white voters - increased in 2019 to 19 points
anti immigration sentiment of con figures such as enoch powell and norman tebbit
concentration of ethnic minority groups in urban industrial centres - london, bham, manchester
concentration of BME voters in lower paid jobs might mean more support for lab - more economic and class based
many asian hindu voters become wealthier - might explain bias towards tories
BME community complex in voting patterns - religious factors may play bigger role
hindu and sikh vote in higher numbers for con
elections
tactical voting
opinion polls
party manifestos and election campaigns
turnout and GE outcomes
concerns general image of party and its leader
closely tied to trust voters have in governing party or in opposition party - governing competency
can relate to trust specific issues or a range of issues
type of valance issue, explanation and example
economic competence
party unity
governing competency
image of leaders
does gov appear to be decisive, did party govern well when it was in power?
cons lost office in 1997 due to issues around competency - 'cash for questions' and 'mad cow disease' scandals
how well did party manage economy when in power?
governing con party won 1987 election - took credit for booming economy
lab party failed to convince voters in 2019 that it could pay for spending plans
how united is party - voters trust united parties not disunited ones
cons lost elections in 2001 and 2005 partly because remained divided over issue of europe
division = problem for labour in 2017 after corbyn faced leadership election in 2016
are leaders admired/trusted?
lib dems did well in 2010 as clegg was liked and respected
lost respect after 2010 and was heavily defeated in 2015
leaders that are unpopular tend to reduce party's share of the vote
important?
does affect electoral outcome
does not affect electoral outcome
blair - labour party high approval ratings propelled labour to large majorities in 1997/2001 - waning popularity after iraq war correlates to lab reduced majority after 2005 election
corbyn - 2019 survey of former labour voters found that 43% cast their vote on basis of leadership - highlighting that dislike of corbyn helped shatter 'red wall'
attlee - con party leader and wartime PM churchill said he was 'a modest little man with much to be modest about' - yet won a landslide victory in 1945
thatcher - callaghan had higher net approval ratings than MT in 1979 but her con party still won back power
identification of important issues at stake in election - voters influenced by salient issues so parties make them main element of campaigns
2010
1979
2019
issue of brexit and whether voters preferred 2nd ref or BJ oven ready deal to get brexit done
issue of deficit and public finances whether there would be public sector cuts or tax rises to address problem
issue of trade union power after a winter of industrial unrest
carried out by research organisations using sample of typical voters - used to establish voting intention
main debates
accuracy of opinion polls can be trusted?
role in affecting party policy?
their use during election campaign may affect how people vote?
influential?
yes
no
may be affected by party policy rather than other way around
have proven to be inaccurate
seem to influence party policy
results may shape the way people vote
1992 - most polls suggested lab would win the GE - encouraged wavering voters to back con gov out of fear of lab administration and neil kinnock
2015 - closeness of polls led to con efforts to warn about possibility of labour-SNP coalition - may have helped to shift election in favour of small con majority
polls showed immigration = important issue after 2010 - hence con pledges to limit net migration to 'tens of thousands'
arguably labour 2017 manifesto shifted and shaped opinion on public spending
2017 - most polls predicted comfortable con majority - didn't pick up on 'youthquake' - increased in young labour voters
2016 EU ref - polls indicated remain side would win - it didn't
debate over banning
for
against
proved inaccurate - mislead the public - some may have voted to leave EU out of protest as outcome was expected to be remain - their vote would not matter
politicians should not be slaves to changing public opinion as expressed in the polls - may in any case by inaccurate
may influence the way people vote - if polls show clear outcome might discourage people from voting
multiple countries ban release of opinion polls - including canada and france which have similar political and democratic systems to the UK
if they are banned sill continue to be available privately for organisations that can afford to pay for them
polls give valuable information about people's attitudes - can help politicians to respond to concerns
would infringe the principle of freedom of expression
still be published abroad and people could access them through the internet
typically last between 4-6 weeks during this period parties release a manifesto
if elected winning party claims a mandate to introduce policies that it contains
rarely affect the outcome of the election but can be significant in specific circumstances
election year/ campaign and manifesto were important/ less important than other factors
1997
2017
1979
2019
MT ran disciplined campaign and utilised slogan labour isn't working to depict rising unemployment
valance issues played more prominent role as lab gov was blamed for winter of discontent
labour ran cautious election campaign to maintain poll lead - party manifesto reflected TB popularity by having his image on front cover
TB positioned labour to appeal to middle class voters - process that took place long before election
con party forced into u turn on manifesto commitment to reform health and social care - policy was dubbed the dementia tax - opinion polls narrowed there after
salient issue of brexit affected voting patterns far more than the 6 week election campaign and party manifesto launches
labour copious manifesto pledges led to questions of affordability
con party enjoyed sizeable poll lead in run up to campaign and questions of corbyn's leadership had plagued the labour party for several years
voters may feel that their first choice vote will be wasted because it is for a party that has no chance of winning - change their vote for second candidate - better chance at beating candidate that most dislike
supporters of green party vote labour to prevent con candidate from winning
UKIP or brexit party voter may vote con to keep labour from winning
significance of tactical voting
important
not important
websites such as swapmyvote have allowed for more precise tactical voting
election expert john curtice estimates that tactical voting could have affected outcome in 77 constituencies in 2015 GE
electoral reform society estimates that 6.5 million voters 'held their noses' in 2017 election and voted tactically
attempts to persuade people to vote tactically often fail - SNP won in scotland 2015 despite attempts by opposition parties to unite behind same pro union candidates
parties seldom issue formal advice to voters on voting tactically
2019 lib dem voters appeared less willing to cast their vote for lab candidates than in 2017
two voters from different constituencies make an informal agreement to cast a vote for one another's preferred party
resulting in loss of several marginal seats for labour
level of turnout can influence election outcome
2015 and 2017 show importance of turnout in determining result
factors affecting turn out
choice between two major parties
salient issues
closeness of election
many voters felt result of 2001 election was a forgone conclusion and labour would win another landslide
BUT in 1992 closeness of election saw 78% turnout
turnout fell by 59%
2017 labour party offered a radically different manifesto from the cons party
encouraged young people to vote in greater numbers
issue of brexit may have encouraged voters on both sides of debate to vote for candidates and parties ho supported their position
ensuring turn out in 2017 was highest since 1997
different demographic groups usually demonstrate different turnout levels
young tend to demostrate greater levels of disillusionment and apathy
2017 - youthquake increase turnout of young voters who were energised to by leadership of corbyn - helped lab reduce gap to the cons - may have denied TM parliamentary majority
2015 - higher turnout appeared to come from disillusioned cons who 'came back home' after fears that labour and SNP would form coalition chaos
most national newspapers in the UK support cons - including those with highest circulation - sun, daily mail, the times
the daily mirror and the guardian generally support labour
press influence in 3 GEs
1997
2017
1979
sun headline 'crisis what crisis?' at height of winter of discontent suggested callaghan was out of tough with voters and swung opinion against formally popular PM
limits to press influence: 1979 result better explained by valence issues surrounding labour's inability to handle TU relations
sun switched support from cons to labour - blair courted murdoch and subsequently much of murdoch owned press switched allegiance
limits to press influence: press simply reacting to prevailing mood of the time, reflected in polls which was clearly swinging towards labour
according to yougov 74% of daily mail readers voted tory in 2017 demonstrating influence that paper's right wing bias had on readers
limits to press influence: press barrage against corbyn didn't work and failed to persuade enough voters to back tories
despite sun's headlines 'don't chuck britain to the cor-bin' and daily mails 15 page anti labour spread the day before polling day - labour saw largest increase in vote share since 1945
how press has influence party policy
blair sought to hold referendum joining the euro but abandoned plan in face of hostility from the murdoch owned press
daily mail campaign to seek justice for black teenager stephen lawrence in early 1990s pushed gov into accepting independent inquiry that found the met police to be institutionally racist
influence should not be over stated
leaders of political parties have most influence over party policy
under corbyn labour appeared to have given up trying to court right wing print media - adopting policies that were completely at odds with murdoch press
nationalising rail and utility companies
political parties are complex organisations and formulate policies by taking on board views of range of different groups inside and outside party structures
think tanks, pressure groups
con party plans on universal credit were influenced by the centre for social justice - headed by former work and pensions secretary iain duncan smith
role TV plays in election campaigns usually relates to how a party leader comes across to viewers - televisual image
positive televisual image of the leader is important
a positive televisual image of the leader is not important
2010 debate between three main parties credited with denying tories parliamentary majority - clegg's performance and resultant 'cleggmania' raised his profile at the expense of DC - resulting in hung parliament
2015, miliband fell off stage in front of live TV audience which did little to enhance his image as a strong leader
kinnock's triumphalist shrieking of 'we're all right' at the sheffield rally in 1992 may have put doubt in minds of voters that he could be trusted to lead the country
TM refusal to participate in live TV debate became means of attacking her leadership - green party leader croline lucas who did take part in debate sad that 'the first rule of leadership is that you show up'
lib dems only increased their share of the vote by 1% in 2010 and lost seta in the election compared to 2005 - strong debate performances perhaps do not matter as much as people think
miliband gave a better than expected performance when interviewed on TV by jeremy paxman during the 2015 campaign, still lost the election
sheffield rally happened only a week before 1992 election and it unlikely that this alone accounts for different levels of support between opinion polls and election results
debates between johnson and corbyn in 2019 seen as dull and repetitive without and obvious winner
recent innovation only possible to consider role of social media in last decade of elections
influence of social media
limits to influence
UKIP begun to reach out to voters on facebook in 2015 and spent much of its campaign money on social media - helped it to win 3.8 million votes in GE
winter GE of 2019 meant social media played more important role than traditional canvassing such as knocking on the doors - due to adverse weather
labour use of viral videos in 2017 - shared among young facebook users at minimal cost demonstrated how party to circumvent traditional media to spread its message
cons halved their spending on facebook election adverts in 2019
use of social media is unlikely to win over new voters but rather 'preach to the converted' as the content consumed by users largely affirms their own views - social media simply and echo chamber
have been many false dawns - 'webcameron' youtube channel in 2010 branded nothing more than publicity stunt