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voting behaviour and the media, elections, non social factors, role and…

- - - - 18-24
        
        27% con
        
        62% lab
      - 70+
        
        19% lab
        
        69% con
    - - 70+
        
        67% con
        
        14% lab
      - 18-24
        
        21% con
        
        56% lab
  - - - BUT by 2017 lab enjoyed majority support from 18-39 yo
    - - cons substantial support among 65+ with 61%
    - - BUT only in last two elections
- - - - 2019 - education might be new reflection of class - 58% with GCSEs or below vote con and 43% of those with degree vote labour
      - significant role in how political parties fight campaigns - cons target 'left behind towns' in 2017/19
      - class divide expressed in more subtle way - BME voters in low paid jobs might vote labour, DE voters in kent might vote con
    - - 2019 cons won support from all social grades
      - class no longer as important - no clear divide
      - 2017 GE DE vote split 43% con 47% lab
      - undercut by class dealignment and issue based voting
    - - class no longer reliable predictor of how person might vote
      - BUT class based voting can manifest through other characteristics - significance of class cannot be completely discounted
- - - - 54% con
      - 31% lab
    - - 54% con
      - 22% lab
      - 18% lib dem
    - - 32% con
      - 48% lab
    - - 40% lab
      - 36% con
    - - 38% con
      - 42% lab
    - - 18% lab
      - 45% SNP
      - 25% con
  - - - labour - performed poorly but did far worse in leave constituencies
      - lib dems - campaigned to stop brexit did better in remain than leave constituencies
      - pro brexit con party performed better in leave areas than remain
- - - - 23% con/ 65% lab/ 4% lib dem
    - - 19% con/ 73% lab/ 6% lib dem
    - - 16% con/ 60% lab/ 20% lib dem
    - - 20% con/ 64% lab/ 12% lib dem
  - - - lab maintained support from BME voters - 64% of votes from BME in 2019 compared to 20% for cons
      - non white voters favour lab - two historical reasons why
        
        anti immigration sentiment of con figures such as enoch powell and norman tebbit
        
        concentration of ethnic minority groups in urban industrial centres - london, bham, manchester
      - 2015 cons enjoyed 11 point lead over lab among white voters - increased in 2019 to 19 points
    - - concentration of BME voters in lower paid jobs might mean more support for lab - more economic and class based
      - many asian hindu voters become wealthier - might explain bias towards tories
      - BME community complex in voting patterns - religious factors may play bigger role
        
        hindu and sikh vote in higher numbers for con
- - - - 1997
        
        labour ran cautious election campaign to maintain poll lead - party manifesto reflected TB popularity by having his image on front cover
        
        TB positioned labour to appeal to middle class voters - process that took place long before election
      - 2017
        
        con party forced into u turn on manifesto commitment to reform health and social care - policy was dubbed the dementia tax - opinion polls narrowed there after
        
        salient issue of brexit affected voting patterns far more than the 6 week election campaign and party manifesto launches
      - 1979
        
        MT ran disciplined campaign and utilised slogan labour isn't working to depict rising unemployment
        
        valance issues played more prominent role as lab gov was blamed for winter of discontent
      - 2019
        
        labour copious manifesto pledges led to questions of affordability
        
        con party enjoyed sizeable poll lead in run up to campaign and questions of corbyn's leadership had plagued the labour party for several years
- - - - young tend to demostrate greater levels of disillusionment and apathy
  - - - 2017 labour party offered a radically different manifesto from the cons party
        
        encouraged young people to vote in greater numbers
    - - issue of brexit may have encouraged voters on both sides of debate to vote for candidates and parties ho supported their position
        
        ensuring turn out in 2017 was highest since 1997
    - - many voters felt result of 2001 election was a forgone conclusion and labour would win another landslide
        
        turnout fell by 59%
      - BUT in 1992 closeness of election saw 78% turnout
- - - - websites such as swapmyvote have allowed for more precise tactical voting
        
        two voters from different constituencies make an informal agreement to cast a vote for one another's preferred party
      - election expert john curtice estimates that tactical voting could have affected outcome in 77 constituencies in 2015 GE
      - electoral reform society estimates that 6.5 million voters 'held their noses' in 2017 election and voted tactically
    - - attempts to persuade people to vote tactically often fail - SNP won in scotland 2015 despite attempts by opposition parties to unite behind same pro union candidates
      - parties seldom issue formal advice to voters on voting tactically
      - 2019 lib dem voters appeared less willing to cast their vote for lab candidates than in 2017
        
        resulting in loss of several marginal seats for labour
- - - - accuracy of opinion polls can be trusted?
      - role in affecting party policy?
      - their use during election campaign may affect how people vote?
    - - yes
        
        seem to influence party policy
        
        polls showed immigration = important issue after 2010 - hence con pledges to limit net migration to 'tens of thousands'
        
        results may shape the way people vote
        
        1992 - most polls suggested lab would win the GE - encouraged wavering voters to back con gov out of fear of lab administration and neil kinnock
        
        2015 - closeness of polls led to con efforts to warn about possibility of labour-SNP coalition - may have helped to shift election in favour of small con majority
      - no
        
        may be affected by party policy rather than other way around
        
        arguably labour 2017 manifesto shifted and shaped opinion on public spending
        
        have proven to be inaccurate
        
        2017 - most polls predicted comfortable con majority - didn't pick up on 'youthquake' - increased in young labour voters
        
        2016 EU ref - polls indicated remain side would win - it didn't
    - - for
        
        proved inaccurate - mislead the public - some may have voted to leave EU out of protest as outcome was expected to be remain - their vote would not matter
        
        politicians should not be slaves to changing public opinion as expressed in the polls - may in any case by inaccurate
        
        may influence the way people vote - if polls show clear outcome might discourage people from voting
        
        multiple countries ban release of opinion polls - including canada and france which have similar political and democratic systems to the UK
      - against
        
        if they are banned sill continue to be available privately for organisations that can afford to pay for them
        
        polls give valuable information about people's attitudes - can help politicians to respond to concerns
        
        would infringe the principle of freedom of expression
        
        still be published abroad and people could access them through the internet
- - - - how well did party manage economy when in power?
        
        governing con party won 1987 election - took credit for booming economy
        
        lab party failed to convince voters in 2019 that it could pay for spending plans
    - - how united is party - voters trust united parties not disunited ones
        
        cons lost elections in 2001 and 2005 partly because remained divided over issue of europe
        
        division = problem for labour in 2017 after corbyn faced leadership election in 2016
    - - does gov appear to be decisive, did party govern well when it was in power?
        
        cons lost office in 1997 due to issues around competency - 'cash for questions' and 'mad cow disease' scandals
    - - are leaders admired/trusted?
        
        lib dems did well in 2010 as clegg was liked and respected
        
        lost respect after 2010 and was heavily defeated in 2015
- - - - does affect electoral outcome
        
        blair - labour party high approval ratings propelled labour to large majorities in 1997/2001 - waning popularity after iraq war correlates to lab reduced majority after 2005 election
        
        corbyn - 2019 survey of former labour voters found that 43% cast their vote on basis of leadership - highlighting that dislike of corbyn helped shatter 'red wall'
      - does not affect electoral outcome
        
        attlee - con party leader and wartime PM churchill said he was 'a modest little man with much to be modest about' - yet won a landslide victory in 1945
        
        thatcher - callaghan had higher net approval ratings than MT in 1979 but her con party still won back power
- - - - issue of deficit and public finances whether there would be public sector cuts or tax rises to address problem
    - - issue of trade union power after a winter of industrial unrest
    - - issue of brexit and whether voters preferred 2nd ref or BJ oven ready deal to get brexit done
- - - - blair sought to hold referendum joining the euro but abandoned plan in face of hostility from the murdoch owned press
      - daily mail campaign to seek justice for black teenager stephen lawrence in early 1990s pushed gov into accepting independent inquiry that found the met police to be institutionally racist
    - - leaders of political parties have most influence over party policy
        
        under corbyn labour appeared to have given up trying to court right wing print media - adopting policies that were completely at odds with murdoch press
        
        nationalising rail and utility companies
      - political parties are complex organisations and formulate policies by taking on board views of range of different groups inside and outside party structures
        
        think tanks, pressure groups
        
        con party plans on universal credit were influenced by the centre for social justice - headed by former work and pensions secretary iain duncan smith
  - - - sun switched support from cons to labour - blair courted murdoch and subsequently much of murdoch owned press switched allegiance
        
        limits to press influence: press simply reacting to prevailing mood of the time, reflected in polls which was clearly swinging towards labour
    - - according to yougov 74% of daily mail readers voted tory in 2017 demonstrating influence that paper's right wing bias had on readers
        
        limits to press influence: press barrage against corbyn didn't work and failed to persuade enough voters to back tories
        
        despite sun's headlines 'don't chuck britain to the cor-bin' and daily mails 15 page anti labour spread the day before polling day - labour saw largest increase in vote share since 1945
    - - sun headline 'crisis what crisis?' at height of winter of discontent suggested callaghan was out of tough with voters and swung opinion against formally popular PM
        
        limits to press influence: 1979 result better explained by valence issues surrounding labour's inability to handle TU relations
- - - - 2010 debate between three main parties credited with denying tories parliamentary majority - clegg's performance and resultant 'cleggmania' raised his profile at the expense of DC - resulting in hung parliament
      - 2015, miliband fell off stage in front of live TV audience which did little to enhance his image as a strong leader
      - kinnock's triumphalist shrieking of 'we're all right' at the sheffield rally in 1992 may have put doubt in minds of voters that he could be trusted to lead the country
      - TM refusal to participate in live TV debate became means of attacking her leadership - green party leader croline lucas who did take part in debate sad that 'the first rule of leadership is that you show up'
    - - lib dems only increased their share of the vote by 1% in 2010 and lost seta in the election compared to 2005 - strong debate performances perhaps do not matter as much as people think
      - miliband gave a better than expected performance when interviewed on TV by jeremy paxman during the 2015 campaign, still lost the election
      - sheffield rally happened only a week before 1992 election and it unlikely that this alone accounts for different levels of support between opinion polls and election results
      - debates between johnson and corbyn in 2019 seen as dull and repetitive without and obvious winner