EQUITY VALUATION and ANALYSIS
EVA
Valuation
Value
Analysis
Model
process of estimate of an asset value
base on
perceived future investment return
comparison with similar assets
Type
Book value
Going concern value
Liquidation
Intrinsic value
Market value
Fair value
Replacement value
Special value
Additional value place on an asset, unique to an individual investor
Total Asset - Total liabilities
aka Net asset value
Original cost - depreciation, amortization or impairment cost
amount that could be realized by selling the assets of a business in a forced or distressed situation
amount that could be obtained by selling the business as a whole, assuming that it will continue to operate and generate cash flows in the future
the price at which an asset would change hands between a willing buyer
and a willing seller and neither buyer or seller are under any compulsion to buy or sell.
true value of an asset
Based on
Fundamental characteristic
Future earning/growth potential
Role
ADVANCED CORPORATE FINANCE
MM1
Assumptions
Present value of CF
Perpeptuity
Anuity
With growth
MM1 With Tax
Relative Advantage Formula RAF
click to edit
RAF< 1 => Debt advantage
RAF >1 Equity advantage
RAF = 1 - Indifference between debt vs equity
FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS
Asset
Definition
Non current
Current
Controlled by the Entity
Result of past event
Economic resource
Cover ST liability
Expected to be sold, collected, or used within a year
yield benefit > 1 yr
CASH and CASH EQUIPVALENT
Definition
Cash
Equipvalence
RECEIVABLE
Acc Rec
Note Rec
No interest charge
Charged interest
Analysing
Authencity of Receivable
Collection risk
Determine competitors’ receivables as a percent of sales relative to the company under analysis
Examine customer concentration
Investigate the age pattern of receivables
overdue and for how long
Determine portion of receivables that is a renewal of prior receivables
Analyze adequacy of allowances for discounts, returns, and other credits
Securitization
Definition
With resource
Without resrouce
C ompared to your competitor
How much/How many % that the customer is borrowing
Prepaid Expense
INVENTORY
FIFO
LIFO
AVERAGE
Analysing
Tangible
Intangible
Goodwill
PPE
Depreciation and Amortisation
Impairment
Analysing
VL = VU + PV (interest tax shield)
Debt + equity
Leverage
equity only
Unleverage
No tax
VL = VU
Permanent Debt
Temporary debt
Tax shield = Tc(RD x D)
PV (Tax shiled) = [Tc x (RD x D)] / RD
= Tc x D
Tc= Corporate tax rate
D= Debt level
RD = interest rate
VU = (1-Tc)X/RA
RA = rate of return for Unleverage firm
X =CF
VL = (1-Tc)X/RA + Tc(RD x D)/ RD
WACC
Investing activity
Intercorporate Investment
Company invest in another company
Purpose
Type
Debt securities
Equity securities
Held to Maturity
Trading
Available for sale
No influence
Below 20%
Significant influence
20-50%
Controlling interest
above 50% holding
Trading or Available for sale
Lecture 4 slide 4
Lecture 4 slide 5
Analyse
Objective
To separate operating performance from investing
(and financing) performance
To analyze accounting distortions from investment securities due to earning management and/or accounting rule
Method
Equity Method Accounting
Purchase Method
click to edit
Goodwill
Lecture 4 page 14-15
Pretax
Tax
FCFF
Value of firm (VF) = FCFF/ (WACC-g)
2 stage growth
EARNING VS CAPITAL
FREE CASH FLOW
FCFF
FCFE
click to edit
ALSO SEE ABOVE FCFF
= All Cash inflow - all cash outflow
Definition
= E + NCC -WCInv - FCInv+ Net borrowing + Other NCL
NCC = NON CASH CHARGE
WCInv = CHANGE IN NET CURRENT ASSET
=current assets - current liabilitie - interest bearing liabilitiess
FCInv = FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
= change in non current asset between 2 period + depreciation of the period
Net Borrowing
Change in interest-bearing debt (BOTH CURRENT AND NON CURRENT)
Other NCL = CHANGE to the remaining NON CURRENT LIABILITIES AND MINORITIES INTEREST
VF = FCFF / (1+WACC)^t
=E + NCC -WCInv - FCInv + Other NCL + Interest expense (1-T)
= FCFE - Net borrowing + Interest (1-T)
Interest(1-T) = INTERE
click to edit
EPS1 = ROE1 x BVPS1
BVPS = Total equity / number of share
PEG
g=b x ROE
PE/g
EPS(BUYBACK)
(E(future) - e') / (n-m)
ROE
Net profit / Equity
divided by the number of share
EPS / BVPS
(Price/ Book value) / (Price/Earning)
PB/PE
Price/ Earning per share
Earning Per share (EPS)
Current (Trailing)
Future/Forecast
Buy back
Dividend per share
click to edit
(E1-e')/(n-m)
E1
e' = additional earning
e'=m.P.roe
m
n
change in number of share (no of share buy back)
P = Price at which share is repurchased
roe= marginal after-tax- roe
no of share before buy back
Earning current period / Book value of equity form LAST period
Lease
Definition
Why
Convertible debt
Bond <-> Stock
Right to convert
embbedded call
callable and putable
Conversion ratio
The number of shares the bond holder gets when converting one bond into shares.
Conversion price
Implied purchase price in the bond currency of the convertible upon conversion is face value /
conversion ratio
Premium to parity
Bond floor
Valuation
Biomial
Sensible reason
Dubious reason
– Short-term leases are convenient
– Cancellation options are valuable
– Maintenance is provided
– Standardization leads to low costs
– Tax shields can be used
– Leasing and financial distress
– Sidestepping the limitation on debt interest
Avoid capital expenditure controls
Preserves capital
type
Operating lease
Financial lease
– Rental lease ( Full service)
– Net lease
– Direct lease
– Sale and lease-back
– Leveraged lease
Short-term, cancellable lease
Long term, noncanelable
Lessee: who lease
Lessor: who own the asset
SALE AND LEASE BACK
Reason
- Raising funds
- Diversifying funding sources
- Improve efficiency
- Enhancing occupational flexibility
- Disposing of low-yield assets
NPV
- +Cost of asset
- -PV(payment)
- +PV (Tax saving/cost on lease payment)
- -PV (tax saving on depreciation)
- -PV(after tax residual value)
NPV
- -Cost of asset
- +PV(payment)
- -PV (Tax saving/cost on lease payment)
- +PV (tax saving on depreciation)
- +PV(after tax residual value)
positive for both
Taxation
Cost of capital
TRANSACTION COST
Lessor tax rate > Lessee tax rate
- => higher tax saving cost
- => Charge lower borrowing rate
- => lessee payment lower
No cost (as did purchase the asset)
pay the lease
Tax shield on lease
No deprciation
COC Lessor < lessee
ownership transfer to lessee
=>the financial risk of the lessor is not that high and can borrow at a lower rate.
= Distribution to share holder= duality of FCFE
E = Net income
= Equity of last period (t-1) + earning of current t - Equity of current t
Distribution to debt holder and share holer
(B+D) of t-1 + Earning of t - (B+D) of t
Value of firm
Value of Equity
=VF -VD
Note: VD = value of debt-> difficult to find => use book value of debt
FORECASTING
? SALE IS DEPENDENT ON THE ECONOMY
DISCUSS THE FACTOR THAT AFFECT THE SALE
COST OF EQUITY
CAPM
Beta
covariance between stock return vs market return
Risk free rate - Rf
Fed vs state bond
ST vs LT bond
Equity risk premium
Market risk - Risk free rate
Rm-Rf
Rm
Share price index vs Accumulation Index
page 11
Accumulation Index
or Total return index
click to edit
Corportare Governance
Agency conflict
Board of directors
Legislation
defines fiduciary duties for managers
Important legislation
SOX 2002
Prohibits personal loans to directors and executive office
Restriction on stocks sale during retirement plan blackout periods
Dodd-Frank 2010
Audit
Executive Remuneration
Board independence
role
Size
Larger board size , lower performance
explanation
Larger number => harder dicision making
Larger group => easier for CEO to control
Ownership of equity
0-5%
5-25%
higher 25%
click to edit
RATIO
Liquidity ratio
Current ratio
Consideration
Profit/loss in INVENTORY
Solvency
Cash based ratio
Cash to current asset
Cash to current lianbility'
Account Receivable liquidity measure
Account receivable Turnover
Day Sale in receivable
How often the firm collect its current receivable in recent year
Receivable Collection period
Higher the btter
Net Sale on credit / Average account receivable
On average how many day the firm take to collect the receivable
Account receivable / (Sale/360)
Lower => better
On average, how many day the firm will collect the payment of sale on credit
360/ Acc rec turn over
Inventory turn over
Days Sale inventory
Inventory Turn over
COGS / Average Inventory
Inventory / (COGS / 360)
360/ Inventory Turnover
Current liabilities
Days purchases in Acc Payable
Acc Payable / COGS
Acc Payable Turnover
click to edit
ACID test ratio
Long term
Capital structure
Equity vs debt financing
click to edit
Ratio
Total debt/ Total Capital
Total debt / Equity Capital
LT debt / Equity Capital
ST Debt/ Total debt
Earning to fixed charged
Earning available for fixed charges / fixed charge
Time interest earn ratio
(Income + tax expense + interest expense) / interest expense
click to edit
CA/CL
Improve
Take over
Synergy
Operation synergy
Financial synergy
Economic of scale
Pricing down
excess cash
Debt
Tax benefit
DIVIDEND POLICIES
Free cash flow
Retain
Pay Out
Pay Dividends
Repurchase Share
Inv in new Project
Increase Cash Reserves
DIVIDEND
Likely to increase or NOT CHANGE in dollar Dividend
Increase in trend
Possible reason
Increase value of the remaining share (less share outstanding)
Flexibility
Buybacks offer more flexibility than dividends. Companies can adjust buybacks based on their financial situation.
Tax Efficience
Management compensation:
Some managers receive stock options or other compensation tied to the stock price. Buybacks can increase the stock price, potentially benefiting these managers.
INTERNAL CAPITAL MARKET
m&a
internal capital market
Synergy
Identify
the concept that the combined value and performance of two companies will be greater than the sum of the separate individual parts.
1 + 1 >2
Gain/Loss
Total gain /Target gain / Bidder gain
Efficency
All gain
Overpay
Total gain =0
Target = + gain
Bidder = - gain
Agency problems or mistake
Total gains = - gain
Target = + gain
Bidder = - gain
Target always gains as unable to sell with lower price than the market price
Merger
Type and motives
Horizontal
Vertical
Conglomerate
firms at DIFFERENT STAGE of production
2 firms with SAME LINE of business
Firms with UNRELATED LINES of business
increase market power/market share
Efficiency in operation
cost saving
May also negative affect compatitor (by constrain/limit their supply
Diversification
Sensitive Motive in general
Economic of scale
Large firm => reduce cost by unit
Cost saving
Efficiency in operation
Negative impact competitor
Complementary resource
Additional resource from merger (Copy right, chain of supply etc)
Surplus Fund
Extra positive NPV project if has extra fund (wand have limit project available)
Eliminate in efficiencies
Big companies with limit potential to growth or extra project
Tax benefit
Obtain company with loss to have tax deduction
Dubious Reason
Diversification
Increase EPS
Buy high PE firm + sell low PE firm
Related to empire building
Related to manager entrenchment
Reduce risk
Free rider problem
Target firm get increase in price due to better management
If merge => share price will increase ++ (final price)
=> Offer price > = Current price
The more offer firms, the closer the price will reach the final price
Potential solution: Toehold
seminar 10, page 13, 40 min
Cash (required for project) is funded internally
STEIN'S 1997
assumptionS
Credit constrained
Managers are self interest
Not all +NPV can be financed/go to market when needed
Implication
Winner Picking
Keep good division, sell bad division
Advantage
Protect firm secret (technology, copy right etc)
Protect firm asset (compared to bond/ loan)
MAY save cost from loan or equity
Not always happened
Managers TREAT all division EQUALLY
Empire building
Diversification allow managers to retain prestige and power
Entrenchment
Managers cares about their position => take less risk => move diversification
Cost
Determination of winning/losing
determination of winning and losing division is complex
Could also be subjective
Eliminate/discontinue a division could incurrred higher cost than continue
IPO
Venture capital Vs Debt
sometime, lenders do not understand or trust new venture
Lender require collareral
some doesnt exist, some difficult to get (as new venture)
Debt may inhibit growth as firm need to repay loans rather than invest in growth
Interest is obligation, dividen is not
Underwriter
Primary and secondary offering
Investment bank that manages security issuance and design its structure
Old share holder forbid to share in secondary market for a certain time
Spread
difference between public offer price and price paid by under writer
Type of offering
Firm commitment
Best effort
Underwrite guarantee to sell all the stock at offer price
Underwriter does not guarantee to sell all the stock, sell the stock for the best possible price
Auction IPO
Reason
Raising capital
Exposing to public information
Exposing to bigger market
use share a collateral for loan
Create public share for future M&A
Establish market price or value for firm
Allow venture capital to cash out
Cost
Direct cost
Indirect cost
Time
Discussion
Negotiation
Preparing
Waiting
Financial cost, including accounting, legal, printing
Disclosure of information
Agency cost
UNDERPRICING
Reason
Rock model
Market feedback
IPO are underpriced because informed investors have better info and only buy cheap deals. To attract uninformed investors who rely on price as a value signal, companies lower the offering price
Lower prices entice informed investors to reveal how much they really value the IPO, helping set a fair price.
Bandwagon effect
Jump on the bandwagon: Lower prices create a sense of hotness, attracting more investors who fear missing out.
Lawsuit avoidance
Underwriting can be risky, but underpricing might be done to avoid lawsuits in some places, even if not always effective.
Signaling Hypothesis
a successful IPO (due to underpricing) creates goodwill, allowing the company to raise money at higher prices later. There's not much evidence to support this though.
Compensation for underwriter
Underwriters take a risk if they can't sell all the shares. Lower prices can make them easier to sell, reducing the underwriter's risk.
Compensation for owner
Underpricing can be seen as leaving money on the table for the company's owners. The initial price gain could have been captured by selling fewer shares, resulting in less dilution (ownership stake decrease) for the owners.
MANAGER MAY NOT BE BOTHER BECAUSE
Prospect Theory:
Secondary Offering
People tend to feel less excited about gains than they feel bad about losses. So, if the IPO price is higher than expected (even if it's underpriced compared to the true value), managers might be satisfied due to exceeding expectations (prospect theory).
: Companies often only sell a small portion of their shares in the IPO. This means they can raise additional capital later through a secondary offering, potentially at a higher price if the company performs well after going public
Attract media
underprice => significant price increase after IPO => Attract media => free marketing
Enhence Investment bank reputation as successful IPO
LINTNER'S FACT
Companies aim for a consistent dividend payout ratio (percent of profit paid as dividends) in the long term.
Managers focus on increasing or decreasing dividends, not necessarily the exact amount paid.
Dividend changes reflect long-term earning trends, not short-term fluctuations.
Managers avoid cutting dividends if they think it might need to be raised again later.
Companies may also buy back their own stock (rep repurchase) if they have extra cash or want to adjust their capital structure.
MODEL
Div1 - Div0 = adjustment rate x [(target ratio x EPS 1)- Div0]
Target Dividend (NOT actual)
Div1 = target payout ratio x EPS1
Target Dividend Change
Div1 - Div0 = target ratio x (EPS1 - Div0)
THEORY
MM: Dividends DO NOT affect value
Dividend are bad
: taxed more than capital gain
Excess cash hypothesis
topic 6 pp 22-30
Argument
Counter
click to edit
excess cash (for dividend) = no investment => no growth
Excess cash can be temporary
Consider stock by back
Dividend are good
Clientele Effect: Some investors prefer companies that pay regular dividends, so attracting these investors by offering dividends can increase the company's value.
Signaling: Increasing dividends can be seen as a positive sign by the market, indicating strong financial health and potentially leading to a higher stock price.
Wealth Transfer: Paying dividends can be a way to transfer wealth from bondholders (who receive interest payments) to stockholders (who receive dividends).
Agency Costs: Dividends can act as a control mechanism on managers. By forcing them to pay out some cash, it reduces the risk of them using the money for unnecessary investments or empire building.
For main activities of a business
Planning
Financing
Investing
Operating
Goals and objectives of the business
Acquiring fund to execute plan
equity
debt
Buying and maintain asset for functioning
ppe
Intangible asset
execute plan
Profitability
ROI or ROIC
Income /Invested capital
Invested Capital