EQUITY VALUATION and ANALYSIS
EVA

Valuation

Value

Analysis

Model

process of estimate of an asset value

base on

perceived future investment return

comparison with similar assets

Type

Book value

Going concern value

Liquidation

Intrinsic value

Market value

Fair value

Replacement value

Special value

Additional value place on an asset, unique to an individual investor

Total Asset - Total liabilities

aka Net asset value

Original cost - depreciation, amortization or impairment cost

amount that could be realized by selling the assets of a business in a forced or distressed situation

amount that could be obtained by selling the business as a whole, assuming that it will continue to operate and generate cash flows in the future

the price at which an asset would change hands between a willing buyer
and a willing seller and neither buyer or seller are under any compulsion to buy or sell.

true value of an asset

Based on

Fundamental characteristic

Future earning/growth potential

Role

ADVANCED CORPORATE FINANCE

MM1

Assumptions

Present value of CF

Perpeptuity

Anuity

With growth

MM1 With Tax

Relative Advantage Formula RAF

click to edit

RAF< 1 => Debt advantage
RAF >1 Equity advantage
RAF = 1 - Indifference between debt vs equity

FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS

Asset

Definition

Non current

Current

Controlled by the Entity

Result of past event

Economic resource

Cover ST liability

Expected to be sold, collected, or used within a year

yield benefit > 1 yr

CASH and CASH EQUIPVALENT

Definition

Cash

Equipvalence

RECEIVABLE

Acc Rec

Note Rec

No interest charge

Charged interest

Analysing

Authencity of Receivable

Collection risk

Determine competitors’ receivables as a percent of sales relative to the company under analysis

Examine customer concentration

Investigate the age pattern of receivables

overdue and for how long

Determine portion of receivables that is a renewal of prior receivables

Analyze adequacy of allowances for discounts, returns, and other credits

Securitization

Definition

With resource

Without resrouce

C ompared to your competitor

How much/How many % that the customer is borrowing

Prepaid Expense

INVENTORY

FIFO

LIFO

AVERAGE

Analysing

image

Tangible

Intangible

Goodwill

PPE

Depreciation and Amortisation

Impairment

Analysing

VL = VU + PV (interest tax shield)

Debt + equity

Leverage

equity only

Unleverage

No tax

VL = VU

Permanent Debt

Temporary debt

Tax shield = Tc(RD x D)

PV (Tax shiled) = [Tc x (RD x D)] / RD
= Tc x D

Tc= Corporate tax rate

D= Debt level

RD = interest rate

VU = (1-Tc)X/RA

RA = rate of return for Unleverage firm

X =CF

VL = (1-Tc)X/RA + Tc(RD x D)/ RD

WACC

Investing activity

Intercorporate Investment

Company invest in another company

Purpose

Type

Debt securities

Equity securities

Held to Maturity

Trading

Available for sale

No influence
Below 20%

Significant influence
20-50%

Controlling interest
above 50% holding

Trading or Available for sale

Lecture 4 slide 4

Lecture 4 slide 5

Analyse

Objective

To separate operating performance from investing
(and financing) performance

To analyze accounting distortions from investment securities due to earning management and/or accounting rule

Method

Equity Method Accounting

Purchase Method

click to edit

Goodwill

Lecture 4 page 14-15

Pretax

Tax

FCFF

Value of firm (VF) = FCFF/ (WACC-g)

2 stage growth

EARNING VS CAPITAL

FREE CASH FLOW

FCFF

FCFE

click to edit

ALSO SEE ABOVE FCFF

= All Cash inflow - all cash outflow

Definition

= E + NCC -WCInv - FCInv+ Net borrowing + Other NCL

NCC = NON CASH CHARGE

WCInv = CHANGE IN NET CURRENT ASSET

=current assets - current liabilitie - interest bearing liabilitiess

FCInv = FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

= change in non current asset between 2 period + depreciation of the period

Net Borrowing

Change in interest-bearing debt (BOTH CURRENT AND NON CURRENT)

Other NCL = CHANGE to the remaining NON CURRENT LIABILITIES AND MINORITIES INTEREST

VF = FCFF / (1+WACC)^t

=E + NCC -WCInv - FCInv + Other NCL + Interest expense (1-T)

= FCFE - Net borrowing + Interest (1-T)

Interest(1-T) = INTERE

click to edit

EPS1 = ROE1 x BVPS1

BVPS = Total equity / number of share

PEG

g=b x ROE

PE/g

EPS(BUYBACK)

(E(future) - e') / (n-m)

ROE

Net profit / Equity

divided by the number of share

EPS / BVPS

(Price/ Book value) / (Price/Earning)

PB/PE

Price/ Earning per share

Earning Per share (EPS)

Current (Trailing)

Future/Forecast

Buy back

Dividend per share

click to edit

(E1-e')/(n-m)

E1

e' = additional earning

e'=m.P.roe

m

n

change in number of share (no of share buy back)

P = Price at which share is repurchased

roe= marginal after-tax- roe

no of share before buy back

Earning current period / Book value of equity form LAST period

Lease

Definition

Why

Convertible debt

Bond <-> Stock

Right to convert

embbedded call

callable and putable

Conversion ratio

The number of shares the bond holder gets when converting one bond into shares.

Conversion price

Implied purchase price in the bond currency of the convertible upon conversion is face value /
conversion ratio

Premium to parity

Bond floor

Valuation

Biomial

Sensible reason

Dubious reason

– Short-term leases are convenient

– Cancellation options are valuable

– Maintenance is provided

– Standardization leads to low costs

– Tax shields can be used

– Leasing and financial distress

– Sidestepping the limitation on debt interest

Avoid capital expenditure controls

Preserves capital

type

Operating lease

Financial lease

– Rental lease ( Full service)

– Net lease

– Direct lease

– Sale and lease-back

– Leveraged lease

Short-term, cancellable lease

Long term, noncanelable

Lessee: who lease

Lessor: who own the asset

SALE AND LEASE BACK

Reason

  1. Raising funds
  1. Diversifying funding sources
  1. Improve efficiency
  1. Enhancing occupational flexibility
  1. Disposing of low-yield assets

NPV

  • +Cost of asset
  • -PV(payment)
  • +PV (Tax saving/cost on lease payment)
  • -PV (tax saving on depreciation)
  • -PV(after tax residual value)

NPV

  • -Cost of asset
  • +PV(payment)
  • -PV (Tax saving/cost on lease payment)
  • +PV (tax saving on depreciation)
  • +PV(after tax residual value)

positive for both

Taxation

Cost of capital

TRANSACTION COST

Lessor tax rate > Lessee tax rate

  • => higher tax saving cost
  • => Charge lower borrowing rate
  • => lessee payment lower

No cost (as did purchase the asset)

pay the lease

Tax shield on lease

No deprciation

COC Lessor < lessee

ownership transfer to lessee
=>the financial risk of the lessor is not that high and can borrow at a lower rate.

= Distribution to share holder= duality of FCFE

E = Net income

= Equity of last period (t-1) + earning of current t - Equity of current t

Distribution to debt holder and share holer

(B+D) of t-1 + Earning of t - (B+D) of t

Value of firm

Value of Equity

=VF -VD

Note: VD = value of debt-> difficult to find => use book value of debt

FORECASTING

? SALE IS DEPENDENT ON THE ECONOMY

DISCUSS THE FACTOR THAT AFFECT THE SALE

COST OF EQUITY

CAPM

Beta

covariance between stock return vs market return

Risk free rate - Rf

Fed vs state bond

ST vs LT bond

Equity risk premium

Market risk - Risk free rate

Rm-Rf

Rm

Share price index vs Accumulation Index

page 11

Accumulation Index
or Total return index

click to edit

Corportare Governance

Agency conflict

Board of directors

Legislation

defines fiduciary duties for managers

Important legislation

SOX 2002

Prohibits personal loans to directors and executive office

Restriction on stocks sale during retirement plan blackout periods

Dodd-Frank 2010

Audit

Executive Remuneration

Board independence

role

Size

Larger board size , lower performance

explanation

Larger number => harder dicision making

Larger group => easier for CEO to control

Ownership of equity

0-5%

5-25%

higher 25%

click to edit

RATIO

Liquidity ratio

Current ratio

Consideration

Profit/loss in INVENTORY

Solvency

Cash based ratio

Cash to current asset

Cash to current lianbility'

Account Receivable liquidity measure

Account receivable Turnover

Day Sale in receivable

How often the firm collect its current receivable in recent year

Receivable Collection period

Higher the btter

Net Sale on credit / Average account receivable

On average how many day the firm take to collect the receivable

Account receivable / (Sale/360)

Lower => better

On average, how many day the firm will collect the payment of sale on credit

360/ Acc rec turn over

Inventory turn over

Days Sale inventory

Inventory Turn over

COGS / Average Inventory

Inventory / (COGS / 360)

360/ Inventory Turnover

Current liabilities

Days purchases in Acc Payable

Acc Payable / COGS

Acc Payable Turnover

click to edit

ACID test ratio

Long term

Capital structure

Equity vs debt financing

click to edit

Ratio

Total debt/ Total Capital

Total debt / Equity Capital

LT debt / Equity Capital

ST Debt/ Total debt

Earning to fixed charged

Earning available for fixed charges / fixed charge

Time interest earn ratio

(Income + tax expense + interest expense) / interest expense

click to edit

CA/CL

Improve

Take over

Synergy

Operation synergy

Financial synergy

Economic of scale

Pricing down

excess cash

Debt

Tax benefit

DIVIDEND POLICIES

Free cash flow

Retain

Pay Out

Pay Dividends

Repurchase Share

Inv in new Project

Increase Cash Reserves

DIVIDEND

Likely to increase or NOT CHANGE in dollar Dividend

Increase in trend

Possible reason

Increase value of the remaining share (less share outstanding)

Flexibility

Buybacks offer more flexibility than dividends. Companies can adjust buybacks based on their financial situation.

Tax Efficience

Management compensation:

Some managers receive stock options or other compensation tied to the stock price. Buybacks can increase the stock price, potentially benefiting these managers.

INTERNAL CAPITAL MARKET

m&a

internal capital market

Synergy

Identify

the concept that the combined value and performance of two companies will be greater than the sum of the separate individual parts.

1 + 1 >2

Gain/Loss
Total gain /Target gain / Bidder gain

Efficency

All gain

Overpay

Total gain =0
Target = + gain
Bidder = - gain

Agency problems or mistake

Total gains = - gain
Target = + gain
Bidder = - gain

Target always gains as unable to sell with lower price than the market price

Merger

Type and motives

Horizontal

Vertical

Conglomerate

firms at DIFFERENT STAGE of production

2 firms with SAME LINE of business

Firms with UNRELATED LINES of business

increase market power/market share

Efficiency in operation
cost saving
May also negative affect compatitor (by constrain/limit their supply

Diversification

Sensitive Motive in general

Economic of scale

Large firm => reduce cost by unit

Cost saving
Efficiency in operation
Negative impact competitor

Complementary resource

Additional resource from merger (Copy right, chain of supply etc)

Surplus Fund

Extra positive NPV project if has extra fund (wand have limit project available)

Eliminate in efficiencies

Big companies with limit potential to growth or extra project

Tax benefit

Obtain company with loss to have tax deduction

Dubious Reason

Diversification

Increase EPS

Buy high PE firm + sell low PE firm

Related to empire building

Related to manager entrenchment

Reduce risk

Free rider problem

Target firm get increase in price due to better management

If merge => share price will increase ++ (final price)
=> Offer price > = Current price

The more offer firms, the closer the price will reach the final price

Potential solution: Toehold

seminar 10, page 13, 40 min

Cash (required for project) is funded internally

STEIN'S 1997

assumptionS

Credit constrained

Managers are self interest

Not all +NPV can be financed/go to market when needed

Implication

Winner Picking

Keep good division, sell bad division

Advantage

Protect firm secret (technology, copy right etc)

Protect firm asset (compared to bond/ loan)

MAY save cost from loan or equity

Not always happened

Managers TREAT all division EQUALLY

Empire building

Diversification allow managers to retain prestige and power

Entrenchment

Managers cares about their position => take less risk => move diversification

Cost

Determination of winning/losing

determination of winning and losing division is complex
Could also be subjective

Eliminate/discontinue a division could incurrred higher cost than continue

IPO

Venture capital Vs Debt

sometime, lenders do not understand or trust new venture

Lender require collareral

some doesnt exist, some difficult to get (as new venture)

Debt may inhibit growth as firm need to repay loans rather than invest in growth

Interest is obligation, dividen is not

Underwriter

Primary and secondary offering

Investment bank that manages security issuance and design its structure

Old share holder forbid to share in secondary market for a certain time

Spread

difference between public offer price and price paid by under writer

Type of offering

Firm commitment

Best effort

Underwrite guarantee to sell all the stock at offer price

Underwriter does not guarantee to sell all the stock, sell the stock for the best possible price

Auction IPO

Reason

Raising capital

Exposing to public information

Exposing to bigger market

use share a collateral for loan

Create public share for future M&A

Establish market price or value for firm

Allow venture capital to cash out

Cost

Direct cost

Indirect cost

Time

Discussion

Negotiation

Preparing

Waiting

Financial cost, including accounting, legal, printing

Disclosure of information

Agency cost

UNDERPRICING

Reason

Rock model

Market feedback

IPO are underpriced because informed investors have better info and only buy cheap deals. To attract uninformed investors who rely on price as a value signal, companies lower the offering price

Lower prices entice informed investors to reveal how much they really value the IPO, helping set a fair price.

Bandwagon effect

Jump on the bandwagon: Lower prices create a sense of hotness, attracting more investors who fear missing out.

Lawsuit avoidance

Underwriting can be risky, but underpricing might be done to avoid lawsuits in some places, even if not always effective.

Signaling Hypothesis

a successful IPO (due to underpricing) creates goodwill, allowing the company to raise money at higher prices later. There's not much evidence to support this though.

Compensation for underwriter

Underwriters take a risk if they can't sell all the shares. Lower prices can make them easier to sell, reducing the underwriter's risk.

Compensation for owner

Underpricing can be seen as leaving money on the table for the company's owners. The initial price gain could have been captured by selling fewer shares, resulting in less dilution (ownership stake decrease) for the owners.

MANAGER MAY NOT BE BOTHER BECAUSE

Prospect Theory:

Secondary Offering

People tend to feel less excited about gains than they feel bad about losses. So, if the IPO price is higher than expected (even if it's underpriced compared to the true value), managers might be satisfied due to exceeding expectations (prospect theory).

: Companies often only sell a small portion of their shares in the IPO. This means they can raise additional capital later through a secondary offering, potentially at a higher price if the company performs well after going public

Attract media

underprice => significant price increase after IPO => Attract media => free marketing

Enhence Investment bank reputation as successful IPO

LINTNER'S FACT

Companies aim for a consistent dividend payout ratio (percent of profit paid as dividends) in the long term.

Managers focus on increasing or decreasing dividends, not necessarily the exact amount paid.

Dividend changes reflect long-term earning trends, not short-term fluctuations.

Managers avoid cutting dividends if they think it might need to be raised again later.

Companies may also buy back their own stock (rep repurchase) if they have extra cash or want to adjust their capital structure.

MODEL

Div1 - Div0 = adjustment rate x [(target ratio x EPS 1)- Div0]

Target Dividend (NOT actual)

Div1 = target payout ratio x EPS1

Target Dividend Change

Div1 - Div0 = target ratio x (EPS1 - Div0)

THEORY

MM: Dividends DO NOT affect value

Dividend are bad

: taxed more than capital gain

Excess cash hypothesis

topic 6 pp 22-30

Argument

Counter

click to edit

excess cash (for dividend) = no investment => no growth

Excess cash can be temporary

Consider stock by back

Dividend are good

Clientele Effect: Some investors prefer companies that pay regular dividends, so attracting these investors by offering dividends can increase the company's value.

Signaling: Increasing dividends can be seen as a positive sign by the market, indicating strong financial health and potentially leading to a higher stock price.

Wealth Transfer: Paying dividends can be a way to transfer wealth from bondholders (who receive interest payments) to stockholders (who receive dividends).

Agency Costs: Dividends can act as a control mechanism on managers. By forcing them to pay out some cash, it reduces the risk of them using the money for unnecessary investments or empire building.

For main activities of a business

Planning

Financing

Investing

Operating

Goals and objectives of the business

Acquiring fund to execute plan

equity

debt

Buying and maintain asset for functioning

ppe

Intangible asset

execute plan

Profitability

ROI or ROIC

Income /Invested capital

Invested Capital