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Voting behaviour and the media - Coggle Diagram
Voting behaviour and the media
4.1 General election case studies
1979
Party policies and manifestos
Both parties gave high priority to bringing inflation down
Thatcher campaigned to return recently nationalised industries to private hands and remove some trade union powers
Wider political context
Thatcher's victory was largely attributed to the weakness of the Labour government, which precipitated the dissolution of parliament
Despite Callaghan's personal popularity and tentative signs of economic improvement, his government was a minority administration which survived by constructing deals with smaller parties
During the
'winter of discontent'
in early 1979, the government's attempts to impose a 5% limit on pay increases collapsed as a series of strikes created a sense of national paralysis
Callaghan's failure to control militant trade unions ultimately led to Conservative victory
The media image Callaghan was out of touch and was ignorant to the issue was perpetuated by The Sun headline 'Crisis? What crisis?' furthered the image of him as a weak leader who couldn't manage economic and social breakdown - the Conservatives used this to their advantage
59% of middle class voters voted Conservative, compared to 24% for Labour
49% of working class voters voted Labour, compared to 34% for Conservatives
43% of men and 47% of women voted Conservative, compared to 40% of men and 35% women who voted Labour
1997
Party policies and manifestos
Blair drove forward the policy of modernisation - the
'New Labour'
project abandoned old-fashioned party policies such as nationalisation, tax increases and trade union powers, which might put off non-committed middle class voters
Blair also gave tough signals on law and order, an issue that to mattered to voters following rising crime rates in the early 1990s, and emphasised his links to the business community
Labour also won the endorsement of the media - including The Sun and The Times
Labour also stressed specific policy details such as reducing primary school classes and cutting hospital waiting lists
There was no stark difference between Labour and the Conservatives
Blair's emphasis on constitutional reform gave the party common ground with Lib Dems, making it easier for Lib Dems to vote tactically for Labour in marginal seats, which Lib Dem candidates could not hope to win
Election campaign
New Labour employed PR experts to handle the media, used focus groups to assess public opinion and systematically targeted marginal seats rather than safe seats - however Labour's share of the vote increased by 12% in target seats, but by 13% seats in constituencies it neglected
Wider political context
Labour's landslide victory was partly due to the weakness of the Conservative government under John Major following their narrow victory in the 1992 election
By 1997 the economy was recovering from the recession of the early 1990s, but voters did not give Conservatives credit for this - instead focusing on the catastrophe of
'Black Wednesday'
in September 1992, as the fruits of recovery failed to materialise in either tax cuts or increased public services investment - Conservatives has lost their reputation as efficient managers of the economy
The image of Conservative incompetence was confirmed by a series of financial and sexual scandals ('sleaze') and continuing divisions over Britain's relationship with the EU - creating the impression of weak leadership
39% of middle class voters voted Conservative, compared to 34% for Labour
59% of the working class voted Labour, compared to 21% for Conservatives
Trends between men and women were very similar - 31% of men and 32% of women voted Conservative, compared to 45% of men and 44% of women who voted Labour
27% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative, compared to 36% of over 65s
49% of 18-24 year olds voted Labour, compared to 41% of over 65s
2019
Leadership
Corbyn and Labour received bad public image due to anti-semitism in Labour
In contrast Johnson was perceived as a charismatic leader
Economy
Corbyn suffered due to fears of taxation would cause return to 1970s and winter of discontent
Brexit
Main deciding factor for result - Corbyn refused to side for or against Brexit, whilst Johnson's main campaign was 'Get Brexit Done'
48% of men and 42% of women voted Conservative, compared to 29% of men and 36% of women who voted Labour
19% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservatives, compared to 57% who voted Labour
62% of over 64s voted Conservative, compared to 18% who voted Labour
Social class was not a defining factor and did not align with previous trends - 44% of middle class and 50% of working class voters voted Conservative, compared to 31% of middle class and 30% of working class voters who voted Labour
Class-based voting and
other influences
Up until the 1970s, voters were strongly influenced by their social class - Labour voters were predominantly working class or trade union members, and Conservative voters were 'white collar' and business workers
During the 1970s, class began to lose its importance as a determinant of voting behaviour - a process known as
class dealignment
Labour also tended to appeal to the middle class, particularly those in the state sector, and Conservatives appealed to deferential and patriotic working class voters who valued established institutions such as the monarchy
As society became more affluent and working class people aspired to a middle class way of life, differences between social class have not been as visible - this gathered pace during the 1980s, promoted by the sale of council houses to their tenants under Thatcher
The decline of industrialisation reduced trade union power and the privatisation of industries and services reduced the size of the public sector, traditionally a source of Labour support - the creation of New Labour in the 1990s was a recognition of this trend
However it remains the case that higher class voters are more likely to vote Conservative than Labour
Richer members of the electorate who have more at stake financially, through property ownership, savings and investments, are more inclined to vote than the poor, who may believe the political system delivers little for them - at the 2010 election, 74% of homeowners voted, compared to 55% of those in social housing or the private rented sector
Partisanship and voting attachment
Partisan dealignment
is another feature of voting following the 1970s - the decline in attachment felt by voters to the major parties
In the past this loyalty had been instilled by family tradition and the influence of the workplace and local community - these bonds became weakened as people became less likely to work in the same industry for their whole lives, improving education also reinforced this process
Many people have become 'swing voters' who do not identify with a particular party and are open to persuasion at each election - this is partly due to a growing sense of
disillusion
and
apathy
- a loss of confidence in the capacity of politics
The size of the core vote for Conservatives and Labour has diminished - in 1979, 81% of the electorate voted for the major parties, compared to 74% in 1997 and 65% in 2010
Governing competency and voter choice
A way of explaining voting behaviour is
rational choice theory
- the idea voters behave like consumers, deciding how to vote by evaluating what is the most beneficial option for them as individuals
This is linked to the growth of a more educated electorate, with more access to political information, particularly since the rise of the internet
However this approach is problematic because it assumes that voters make rational choices based upon knowledge of party policies - it does not explain elections where voters feel differently about different issues, or where there is no single overriding issue
Rational choice theory argues voters are not influenced by detailed party policies but by much broader questions such as who is the best potential PM? Who is expected to manage the economy most successfully? Who will provide the best quality public services?
Many skilled workers voted Conservative for the first time in 1979, in response to Thatcher's populist style, and because they had become disenchanted with the perceived incompetence of Labour in the 1970s - however these voters transferred support to New Labour in 1997 as evidence of poor management by Major's government accumulated, later abandoning the party in 2010 after their faith in Labour was weakened by the financial crisis and ensuing recession
At each of these elections, voters were passing judgement on the
governing competency
of the main parties - assessing how successfully the current party has managed the business of government, policy success, evidence of a clear agenda and strong leadership are key indicators
A variant of the rational choice theory is the
economic voting model
- this argues voters are more likely to support a governing party if it has successfully managed the economy
Voters may be influenced by factors such as inflation, unemployment, interest rates and taxation
Public anger over the 'winter of discontent' largely secured the Conservative victory in 1979, at the 2010 election, Conservatives were able to portray Labour as having responded inadequately to the financial crisis
Public image of leaders
has become more important as politics has become increasingly personalised - Blair modelled himself to a great extent on Thatcher's strong leadership qualities, Brown notoriously failed to come across as a dynamic, assured leader in 2010
Influence of gender, age, ethnicity and region in voting behaviour
Gender
Historically women have been more inclined to vote Conservative, possibly due to the Conservative emphasis on traditional family
In the Blair era, the difference between men and women lessened, with young women being more likely to vote Labour than men, possibly due to the increase in working women by the 1990s
Alternatively, they may have responded to New Labour's more family friendly policies, such as the provision of free nursery places
Older women are more likely to vote Conservative than young women, similar to men - in 2010, 30% of women aged 18-24 voted Conservative compared to 42% of women over 55 - party leaders recognised this and targeted younger women through platforms such as Mumsnet
Age
Older people tend to vote to Conservative compared to young people - as they are more likely to own property, they vote for the party more likely to protect their material interests
Age means they are also less likely to vote idealistically, or with the aspiration of fundamentally changing society
Older voters today will remember the difficulties faced by Labour governments in the 1970s, when trade unions enjoyed greater power - this is not a factor for young voters - in 2010, 44% of over 65s voted Conservative, compared to 30% of 18-24 year olds - due to this, Cameron refused to cut pensioner benefits
Older people are more likely to vote than the young - 76% of over 65s did in 2010, compared to 44% of 18-24 year olds
The elderly have acquired habits of voting earlier in their lives, and tend to see the outcome of electing as more impactful on their lives - younger people are more likely to feel alienated from politics which they believe has not impacted their lives
Ethnicity
Ethnic minorities are traditionally more inclined to vote Labour, which has focused more strongly on promoting a multicultural and anti-discrimination agenda - this also links to social class, as members of minorities are disproportionately employed in low wage jobs
One exception is that Asians are more likely to support the Conservatives than voters of African descent, as Asians respond in particular to the party's emphasis on small business values
Overall ethnic minority voters remain loyal to Labour - in 2010, they preferred Labour to Conservatives by 60% to 16%
67% of white people voted in 2010, compared to 51% of ethnic minority groups
Region
Most voters in the south (excluding London) and in rural areas and suburbs - the most prosperous areas with highest levels of employment and home ownership - are typically Conservatives
In industrial and urban areas, in the North, Wales, and Midlands - the poorer areas of the country - there is much stronger loyalty to Labour
Education
has also been a factor - in the 2016 EU referendum, those without qualifications went 75% for Brexit, while those with university degrees went 75% against
4.2 Influence of the media
The role of media and its impact
Opinion polls
are used to gauge popularity of political parties by asking a sample of people how they intend to vote
These are not always accurate - in 1992 most polls failed to predict John Major's 21 seat majority - some believed this inaccuracy was due to a 'boomerang effect' - the polls showed Labour lead early in the campaign, causing voters who opposed a Labour victory to turn out and cause a late swing to the Conservatives
It was also suggested the results had been skewed by 'shy Tories' - people who intended to vote Conservative but did not want to declare themselves in public as Conservatives
Impact of changing types of media
In 2000, only 26% of households had internet access, this figure rose to 82% by the 2010 election, leading parties to make extensive use of the internet to reach the electorate
Another new feature by 2010 was the rise of social media - parties learned from the success of Barack Obama in making extensive use of social media to target different groups of voters in the 2012 election - in the 2015 election campaign, the Conservatives spent £100,000 on Facebook advertising
These developments helped parties reach the young in particular - at the 2015 election, 79% of 18-24 year olds said they relied on online sources to inform themselves
These considerations do not apply on the same level to older people, who are more likely to turn out to vote - there is little evidence that social media played a major role in the outcome of the 2015 election
Since the 1990s, leaders have become more conscious of the importance of projecting a favourable media image, and of seeking to control the news agenda as far as possible
This reached a peak during the New Labour era - when the term 'spin doctor' was coined
Blair recruited a press secretary, Alistair Campbell to cope with the arrival of 24 hour news in the 1990s
Another sign of the importance of media is that governments have been increasingly making important policy announcements in TV studios rather than the House of Commons - ministerial speeches are often summarised in the press before they are delivered
Debates around bias and persuasion in the media
The media in a democratic society
Free media is a virtue of a democracy and can play an essential role in holding governments to account, especially when opposition is weak, as it was for much of the New Labour era
However popular newspapers tend to present an unduly simplified interpretation of political issues, focusing excessively on personalities - newspaper owners cannot be held to account in the same way politicians can
The 2011 phone hacking scandal revealed that employees of Rupert Murdoch's News International had been involved in illegal information gathering, further reducing public trust in the press
Media bias
Newspapers are notoriously partisan and will alter their allegiance in response to changing circumstances eg The Sun began as a Labour-supporting paper but switched to the Conservatives in the mid-1970s, Rupert Murdoch responded to Thatcher's hard-line approach to trade unions, which aligned with his business interests
Television is less biased in its coverage than newspapers - terrestrial television must be balanced, by contrast the press is practically free from regulation - the BBC Charter insists on political neutrality
Websites and social media platforms are not subject to control of their content, and are likely more biased than traditional broadcasters
Influence of the media on the public
It is unlikely that the influence of press causes people to change their voting behaviour - most people read newspapers that broadly reflect their outlook, so papers usually confirm their readers' existing political views
However the press is an important reflection of public opinion - the winning party at each recent election was supported by the majority of the press, in 2010 and 2015, the Daily Mirror was the only major newspaper that backed Labour
The press may also shape the political agenda through the way it covers political issues - which may be more important in an age of class and party dealignment, when voters' loyalties to parties are more changeable
A survey found that 62% of respondents cited television as the strongest influence in helping them form an opinion in the run up to the 2015 election, while 25% said newspapers first
In the 2010 election, Nick Clegg enjoyed a boost in the polls following an impressive performance in the first televised debate
The relentlessly negative coverage of Jeremy Corbyn since becoming Labour leader in 2015 centred as much on his personality and appearance as on his policies, which may have prevented him from becoming established with the wider public
It appears that electronic media like the press, reinforces rather than changes political attitudes - the many differing views online make it seem unlikely users will deliberately seek out those that conflict with their own views
Social media often provides a vehicle for trivial political stories, rather than a serious form for debate