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DEVELOPING THE OPPORTUNITY (Module 4), G3 (林俊良111212038 國企三 40%, 張微微…

- - - - define your desired outcome
        
        GOAL
        
        endpoint → all planning is reverse-engineered from this
      - map operational steps
        
        break into broad functional areas
        
        sales & marketing
        
        order booking
        
        manufacturing
        
        shipping/returns
        
        detail each process
        
        raw materials
        
        production line speed
        
        staffing and equipment
        
        costs, productivity, etc.
      - build a reverse income statement
        
        start with target profit
        
        work backwards to define:
        
        revenue needed
        
        costs allowed
        
        fill in with assumed values
        
        link inputs and outputs to test business viability.
      - benchmark your assumptions
        
        evaluate every assumed number
        
        it's source
        
        call suppliers
        
        consult industry reports
        
        talk to competitors
        
        use your own experience
        
        it's reliability
      - match milestones to assumptions
        
        identify key assumptions
        
        (high impact + high uncertainty)
        
        create milestones
        
        create an assumptions vs. milestones matrix:
      - 🔧Additional Tools & Tips
        
        🎯 Sensitivity Analysis
        
        test what happens when numbers change.
        
        E.g., change staff from 6 to 7 → what’s the impact on cost and profit?
        
        📊 Spreadsheet Model
        
        allows real-time adjustments
        
        makes assumptions visible and testable
        
        ⚠️ Important:
        
        cap model at 30 assumptions/milestones
        
        treat it as a steady-state model, not a timeline
        
        constantly update as real-world data comes in
        
        💬 Benefits of DDP
        
        Wey
- - - - Will the costumer help your reach others?
    - - Will this market teach you things useful for scaling?
    - - Does this costumer it your long term brand/ strategy?
- - - - Startups need to avoid direct battles with big companies.
        
        Instead, they must find market positions where big players don’t want to or can’t compete effectively.
  - - - Brand risk if they enter your niche.
      - Cannibalization of their current products.
      - Low profit margins that make the space unattractive.
    - - Offer equity or royalties to turn a competitor into a partner.
      - If they benefit from your growth, they’ll support you instead of fighting you.
    - - Find early market opportunities, act fast, and turn them into long-term positions.
      - Like opening a beachhead in a war—you secure it and expand from there.
  - - - Innovate in a part they outsource or don’t focus on.
      - Example: Foxconn makes devices better than Apple/Amazon could in-house.
      - Work within an incumbent’s value chain.
- - - - Prevents early groupthink and idea bias.
  - - - If people don’t do pre-work, start the meeting with silent individual brainstorming.
- - - - Step 1
        
        Define the goal
      - Step 2
        
        Work backward
      - Step 3
        
        Fill in business activities
    - - Key Assumption
        
        Consider What have been known
        
        Look at the quality of the data
        
        Tornado Chart
        
        Monte Carlo Simulation
        
        Move the number in ranges
        
        ⬆️higest and ⬇️lowest number
    - - match key assumption to milestone
        
        Which Milestone?
        
        When are the test?
        
        How
        
        Figure out sade?
  - - - tools
- - - - User interviews, prototypes, competitor analysis
    - - Unique solution, solves real pain points
    - - MVP, good docs, sample projects
    - - Beta testing, hackathons, community
    - - Tutorials, blog posts, developer programs