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US Democracy and Participation - Coggle Diagram
US Democracy and Participation
The Invisible Primary
Description
US Presidential candidates are chosen by ordinary voters
Used y the candidate to gain recognition, money and put together an organisation
High correlation between who leading the polls at the end of the invisible primaries and wins the election
The invisible primary is mainly played out by the media (through newspapers, TV and social media)
Candidiate announcements
Formal announcements of candidates that are taking part in the presidential race (incumbent usually announces half way through the first term)
Most candidates challenging the incumbent announce this a year before the primaries (Democrat John Delaney was the fastest ever candidate declaration in July 2017)
Support for candidate seen through opinion polls
Can be national, regional or state based
Seen in 2024 election with Trump v Harris/Biden
Seen in 2019 election with Trump v Biden/Sanders/Warren
Televised party debates
Key part of invisible primaries
2019 Democrats highlighted differences between moderate and progressive wings of the party
Debates can be personal
Warren and Sanders argued over whether Sanders once said that a women couldn't be president as they can't win an election and she refused to shake his hand and openly called him a liar
Often little to none actual policy is discussed
Fundraising
A large amount of money has to be raised here 'war chest' to be taken seriously
Money used to campaign, advertise which improves poll ratings and brings in more money
Trump (2016) and Micheal Bloomberg (2020) self financed
Usually money is raised through individual donors or interest groups
2020 Democrat primary candidates who eventually dropped out spent over $1 billion (most expensive primary in history)
Biden spent $116 million
Bloomberg spent $409 million and didn't even make it to the final two
Front-runners
Its important to end the invisible primaries at the front of the polls as they usual go on to be the nominee
2016 Clinton and Trump fitted conventional pattern of early front runner to become nominee
2020 Democrat primaries Sanders had spent $60 million by September 2019 but Biden was ahead on all the polls despite being 5th in fundraising
There is evidence for and against it being dubbed as the 'money primary'
Primaries and Caucuses
A primary is when each state votes for a candidate through delegates this is either proportionally represented by how the state votes or it is a winner takes all method
Caucuses
When people get together (50-100) and they select delegates who go through many stages before they get who they will rally for which determines the final result
Used in Iowa and New Hampshire
Takes up to 5 months
Timing
A state may 'front load' their primary to try and influence other states due to media attention - this may even cause candidates to drop out due to lack of funding
A state may partake in 'Super Tuesday' which involves a group of states announcing their results on the same day to have more of an impact
Nominee may drop out mid primary
Seen with De Santis for the Republican party
Likely due to lack of funding as they won't be given money as people don't believe that they will win and don't want to damage their long-term career
Types of primaries
Closed - A primary which only registered members of the party a can vote in the party's primary
Open - A primary where any registered voter can vote in either party's primary (seen in Wisconsin in 2012)
Modified - Allows those who have registered as independents can vote in with party's primaries
Ways delegates are assigned to the National Convention
Proportional which happen in all Democrat primaries and caucuses and some republican
Winner takes all
Proportional unless a threshold is achieved (from 50% to 85%)
National Conventions
Formal functions
Choosing the parties Presidential candidate
Each states delegates announce which candidate they wish to vote for
Usually more of a confirmation in recent ties and it's usually pretty obvious
Situations that cause a contested convention
If no candidate has won a majority of delegates by the beginning of the convention
If a candidate enters the convention with a majority of delegates but a rival refuses to exit the race
If no candidate wins a majority when the delegates vote at the convention
Choosing a parties VP canididate
This role has also been lost recently (not happened since 1988) as usually the winning candidate announces it a few days before
Deciding the party platform
A document with policies and the candidate intends to pursue if nominated
Put together by the Platform Committee under the direction of the national committee
The draft platform is presented to the delegates at the convention
Debates at the convention over parts of the platform known as 'plans (recently avoided as this portrays the party as divided)
Informal functions
Promoting party unity
Heals wound between candidates from the primaries
2016 RNC was unsuccessful in doing this as Trump didn't get support from prominent Republicans (George W Bush)
2020 DNC there had been sharp exchanges between Biden and Harris and the NC gave them an opportunity to show unity
Enthusing the party faithful
Important that all states feel enhtusiastic and committed
NC gives opportunity to ensure support through speeches and appearances
DNC in 2020 and 2024 Michelle Obama
Enthusing ordinary voters
Done through the television
Candidate acceptance speech is key
Likely many voters first serious look at the party with its candidates and policies
Impressions are key (2016 Trumps first running and 2020 was Biden's 3rd after 1998 and 2008)
Introducing the rising stars of the party (seem with Obama's speech at the 2004 DNC)
Opportunity for the candidates to appeal to the voters directly
When the two main political parties come together for multiple days a few months before Election day to nominate a candidate, more recently this has been more ceremonial
Superdelegates (only at DNC)
If no candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting, superdelegates are allowed to participate in subsequent rounds and most pledges delegates become unpledged
Make up 15% of Democrat delegates
Can support any candidate they choose and can switch support at anytime
They are major elected officials (Senators and House members), notable party members and some of the members of the Democratic National Committee
Adopted after the 1968 election after Humphrey won the nomination despite failing to win any primary
Weaknesses with the RNC
In 2016 several states and territories didn't hold a primary or caucus (Colorado, Wyoming etc) leading to 150 delegates to support who the wanted
Most delegates (95% of 2,472 in 2016) are bound to vote based off the result of the primary/caucus but if no candidate wins the ballot then they are free to vote for whoever
In 2016 if Trump hadn't won the nomination on the first ballot then 57% of delegates could have voted unbound in the second round and 81% in the third
Famous moments in convention history
Obama speech in 2004 DNC - where he made his name and was a test to see how he did speeches
Geraldine Ferro accepts VP nomination in 1984 - First female VP candidate (Mondale and her didn't win)
Hillary Clinton nominate Obama 2008 - healing after fight in caucuses and primaries so party unity prioritised
Michelle Obama 2024 - party faithful
Presidential Debates
'Winning' features of debates
Style is more importance than substance
1960 - Kennedy's physical presence dominated as those who listened on the radio thought Nixon had won but those who watched on TV thought Kennedy did
1992 - Clinton gained support from the debates as Bush was seen checking his watch making him seem bored
2012 - Obama had a weak first debate as he looked disengaged and bored
Verbal Gaffes can be costly
1976 - Ford said "There is no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe" despite the existence of the Iron Curtain which marked a turning point for his eventual loss
1988 - Dukakis was asked whether he would support the death penalty for someone that raped and murdered his wife and his response was deemed cold hurting him in the polls
Good sound bites are helpful
1992 - Perot's bulldog-like feistiness won the headlines of the debate
1984 - In Reagan's first debate he seemed tired and slow but in second debate he said "... I will not make ages an issue to this campaign. I am not going to exploit my opponents youth and inexperience"
Debates are more challenging for the incumbent than for challengers
1984 - Main topics were the Cold War and Reagan's view of the Soviet Union as the 'evil empire' and his programme cuts that disadvantaged medicare
1992 - One of the main topic's was Bush's reversal of his promise "Read my lips no new taxes"
2012 - Romney repeatedly recited high unemployment and the fact the US had lost some of its strength as the leader in world affairs
2016 - Trump attacked Clinton on missing e-mails and that she should be jailed for that
Limitations of TV debates
Clinton v Trump
Clinton outperformed Trump in every debate however her polls only moved marginally and she lost the election
Clinton and Trump's debate reached record numbers of 84 million in the first debate
Harris v Trump
Trump debated poorly against Harris
Trump still got 75 million votes despite claiming people are eating their cats and dogs causing the moderator to step in
Importance of TV debates
2024 Biden had a poor performance against Trump which led to the Democrats loosing faith in Biden causing the change nomination to Harris
Contestants
Candidates who are polling on average over 15% in national polls are able to take part
Recently there has only been two candidates from the two major parties
The Electoral College
The electoral college votes
States with the highest ECVs are California (54), Texas (40), Florida (30) and New York (28)
Maine and Nebraska has a unusual way of allocating EVCs as they have two votes to the overall winner of the popular vote and the rest to the winner in each congressional district
The 'battleground' states in the 2024 election were Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia (previously Biden by 13,000 votes) and North Carolina (previously Biden by 74,000 votes)
270 EVCs are required to win
If no one wins a majority the President is elected by the House where each state has one vote and a winner requires an absolute majority (26/50) and the same with the VP and the Senate
It can be projected when the EVCs begin to be counted who is likely to win but the VP formally counts the votes and announces the result (in 2021 this led to the Capitol riot)
How EVCs are allocated
A State is allocated a certain amount of electoral college votes which is the number of Senators (2) plus the number of Representatives in the House
Founding fathers were worried about small states being under respresented
Every states gets automatically 3 EVCs due to all having 2 Senators and 1 House member
Does lead to some small states being over represented by their 3 EVCs (Wyoming, North and South Dakota, District of Columbia and Vermont
Majority vote
Candidates can loose the popular vote but still win the election due to the electoral college system
In 2000 Bush lost the majority vote 47.9% to Gore who got 49.4% but won overall
In 2016 Trump lost 46.1% to Clinton who got 48.2% but won overall
In 2024 Trump got 49.8% and Harris got 48.3%
The Incumbency Factor
Incumbent advantages
Named recognition - media advantage and highlight achievements
Fundraising - don't have to fund campaign to be the nominated candidate
Single candidate - Unchallenged so party seems more united
Executive position - Can use position to benefit key groups/ swing states and announce a popular measure just before the election (2011 Obama troop with drawl from Afghanistan)
Experience of the campaign
Risk aversion - Only 11 Presidents have failed to win re-election (only happens if something significant happens)
Incumbent disadvantages
Unforeseen events - Can get blamed when things go wrong (COVID)
Presiding over a weak economy which they get the blame for - Happened with all 4 recent presidents who have lost
Replacing the Electoral College
Instant runoff voting (IRV)
Voters rank candidates then countered based off first vote then if no majority second vote is counted
Advantages
Proportionally represented
Other choices taken into account
Disadvantages
Complicated
Time consuming
Proportional Allocation of Electoral Votes
Splits each state's electoral votes in accordance with their popular vote percentage
Disadvantage - may lead to a less clear majority
Advantage - proportionate
Direct Vote with plurality rule
Abolish the electoral college and each person would vote for each candidate and the one with the most votes wing
Disadvantage - a lot of effort to implement as constitutional change is needed for this
Advantages
Simple
Proportionate
Congressional District Method
Divides electoral votes by district and use remaining two as a bonus for the statewide popular vote winner (Used in Nebraska and Maine)
Disadvantages
Complicated
Slightly pointless (2024 was the first year they were split)
Advantages - more accurate representation of the views within the state
National Bonus Plan
Maintains current system but awards extra electoral votes as a bonus to the winner of the popular vote (102 extra) that would almost always guarantee that the popular vote winner would be overall winner
Advantages
Will provide a clear majority
More proportionate popular vote
Disadvantages
More complicated
Would compromise current over representation of lower populated states
Turnout was 66.6% in 2020 which is was the highest in recent years and in 2024 it was 63.7% which is also deemed pretty high
Campaign Finance
Role of finance
They money spent as part of the electoral process is a legitimate concern for some civil liberties pressure groups as there are question surrounding transparency of the money and how fair it is that only those who can afford it can run
The candidate spends the money on marketing, the media, rallies, their team of staff and advisors and travel costs (including their team)
Hard money goes directly to the candidate which they then spend
Soft money is money spent on a campaign but through indirect channels
1974 FECA (restricted)
Direct result of watergate which led to charges in the limiting of direct contributions (hard money) from individuals, unions and cooperations
Means candidate is only relying on a few wealthy donors
Attempted to reduce hard money and increase democracy and results were praise-worthy and partly successful however there were loopholes and it was weakened by the SC and Congress
1976 Buckley v Valeo (enabled)
SC ruled that limitations on what individuals or political action committees spent on campaigns infringed on the 1st amendment and was therefore unconstitutional
1979 Congress amends FECA (enabled)
Development of 'soft money'
Congress further weakened the law by allowing parties to raise money for aspects like vote registration campaigns and 'party building' activities (soft money)
2002 McCain-Feingold (restricted)
Banned soft money going to the party
Raised cap to $2000
Corporations and Unions banned
SBYA requires candidates to endorse ads
Done through the endorsement of 2 senators (Republican John McCain and Democrat Russell Fitzgerald
Bipartisan campaign reform act
2008 Less use of 'matching funds' (enabled)
1976-2008 'matching funds' were used which is federal money administered by the newly formed Federal Election Commission (FEC) given to presidents who meet criteria and limitations
2008 Obama opted out of this meaning he could outspend John McCain who only got the $84 million
2010 Citizens United v FEC (enabled) - said money is free speech (1st amendment)
2014 McCutcheon v FEC - set a cap on how many candidates could be supported is unconstitutional
Republicans
Conservative attitude
Influenced by neoconservatism so want to preserve the USA's organic society from social fragmentation (uneasy with social and sexual revolution in 1960s)
Informed heavily by Christianity with rights and wrong (oppose generally abortion, gay marriage and recreational drug taking) so they push for prayer in state run schools
Uphold traditional values through strong law and order
Current party strongly oppose abortion with Trump being the first ever sitting President to attend an anti-abortion rally in January 2020)
1984 Reagan instigated Mexico City Police which required non-governmental organisations receiving US global health assistance to not provide abortion services and discuss option of abortion
Republicans at state and federal level issue out strong punishments for the use of drugs
Focus on 'family values' seen when Trump stopped transgender people from joining the army and in 2025 when he forced people to identify as their born gender on formal documents
They often believe in the death penalty, are stricter on immigration and want higher defence spending
More restricted on government intervention while protecting US trade and jobs
Favour the neoliberal negative freedoms
Want to defend the 2nd amendment that is the right to bear arms which gives ultimate guarantee of freedom against the government
Included ideas of 'rugged individualism' and self help
Instinctively favour lassiez-faire economics
Rejected the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009) which provided a $787 billion stimulus after the financial crash
Rejected the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Consumer Protection Act (2010) which regulated Wall Street after the crash
See restrictions to limit environmental damage as inefficient
Like to roll them back to protect the interest of industry and business
Summer 2020 Trump opened some of the Artic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska to oil and gas developments
Trump in 2017 and 2025 withdrew the US from the Paris agreement
Do see need for some government intervention as they accept the need for some social welfare and finance this through a low degree of tax
Support a nation-state when it comes to foreign policy with some protectionism (seen with Trumps tariffs to most countries across the world)
Demonstrate pragmatism in times of crisis
2008 financial crisis Bush used the Emergency Economic Stabilisation Act (2009) creating $700 billion asset relief programme stabilising the banking industry
2020 Republicans supported the Keynesian Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES)
Acceptance of social welfare but a preference for personal responsibility
Acceptance of a safety net
Should only be for those who are actually struggling but not handouts eroding responsibility
Support existence of Medicaid, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Programme (SNAP)
However, recent Republicans under Trump have suggested abolishing these
Believe that the welfare programme of Johnson's 'Great Society' have created a dependency culture
Republicans doubt human nature so argue poverty programmes and counter-productive as humans aren't naturally hardworking
They favour lower taxes, a smaller state as it allows individuals to benefit from hardwork
Believe in private competition when it comes to healthcare
Against a state monopoly of healthcare due to the cost and unwanted tax on individuals
2016 argued healthcare must be 'based on genuine competition and patient choice'
History
Were more anti-slavery as they were wealthy businessmen in the north and eventually lost interest in slavery and left the south to their own devices
Became the party of big business in the 1920s
During the wall street crash they claimed that 'prosperity is just around the corner' as they left things up to the free market which led them to being voted out (Roosevelt came in)
Opposed a big government (therefore against civil rights movement as they saw it as looking after minorities)
Democrats
History
Emerged with government action during the Wall Street Crash (Roosevelt)
Race issue still remained in the 20th century
Pro-civil rights Democrats gained the upper hand after the split of the Democrat party
Johnson 1964 Civil Rights Act and 1965 Voting Rights Act
Managed to gain support through an increasingly diverse America
Emerged with progressivism by challenging the hierarchy
Progressive attitudes on social and moral issues
The party is based around modern liberalism and the idea of equality of opportunity
Instigations of the Civil Rights Act (1964) and the Voting Rights Act (1965) which ended legal segregation and gave black Americans full political and civil rights
They support mixture of punishment and rehabilitation when it comes to crime (after death of George Floyd they wanted Justice Policing Act to address institutional racism)
Strong supporters of pro-choice and oppose attempts to weaken it ('heartbeat pills' only a few pro-life democrats remain for example Dan Lipinski from Illinois lost his primary race in 2020)
Greater government intervention in the economy
Since the 1960s they have been influenced with the ideas of modern liberalism and an enabling state with positive freedoms and a empowering role for the state within the economy
Until the Great Depression both parties advocated for a small state but Roosevelt took ideas from Keynes and used them to tackle the economic downturn
Roosevelt argued believed mass unemployment neglected individual freedom
Examples of later Democrat President intervening in the economy
Obama was influenced by Keynesian deficit spending with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009) which involved a $787 billion stimulus
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES) (2020) involved a $2.2 trillion stimulus
They regulate the free market seen with The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Consumer Protection Act (2010) that introduced regulation on the financial market to avoid another crisis
Favour an increase in tax for the wealthy and support the Buffett Rule (no millionaire should pay a smaller share of their income in taxes than a middle class family)
Government provision and social welfare
Modern liberalism has influenced the Democrats when it comes to the enabling state and social welfare
Seen by Johnson's 'Great Society' programmes in the 1960s which were a 'war on poverty'
Obama succeeded to build upon Johnson's legacy with the Affordable Care Act (2010) which is what Clinton failed to pass
They have (with limited success) tried to increase the rights for illegal immigrants and their children and greater gun control
Actions for LGBTQ+ and Rights
Ensuring equality for LGBT federal government employees
Ensuring hospital visit rights for LGBT+ patients and their loved ones (2011)
Ending the Defence of Marriage Act (2011)
The Hate Crime Prevention Act (2010)
Democrat Factions
Liberals/progressives
In recent years this wing has seen a mass resurgence and is particularly popular with the young metropolitan and urban middle class
Sanders and AOC have both described themselves as socialist and want more remodelling of society than the other factions
AOC commented "In any other country, Joe Biden and I would not be in the same party but in America we are"
AOC argues for
Affordable healthcare
Higher minimum wage
Housing which isn't about the profit
Stronger trade unions
To 'fight' oligarchy
More equality of outcome
Favour legalising marijuana, citizenship for dreamers, environmental issues, free college education, LGBTQ+ rights, oppose the death penalty and mandatory prison sentences
Want to reform campiagn financing as currently wealthy business,em have more influence than the ordinary working class
Believe centrists lack progressive drive for racial equality
Include Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Elizabeth Warren
Associated with the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC)
Moderates/centrists
Concerned about climate change so want to rejoin Paris Climate Agreement and invest $1.7 trillion in climate change to reach net zero by 2050
Biden wanted $15 minimum wage, higher tax on corporations and the wealthy (Buffett Rule) and a wealth tax
Focus on homeless and wanted to spend $640 billion over 10 years on affordable housing (progressives wanted $7.5 trillion)
Have respect for the progressive wing with Biden calling them "brilliant" and "really smart"
Want a 'public option' for health care which is seen with Biden trying to lower prescription drug prices costing $750 billion over a decade
Want minority rights but cautious about wholesale reform, more affordable college, tax reforms on the middle class and fair approach to immigration
Included Joe Biden, the Clintons and Terri Sewell
Associated with the New Democrat Coalition Caucus
Conservatives
The weakest group and heavily defeated in 2020 including the founding member Collin Peterson
Most powerful as a group in 2009-10 when they had enough influence over Obama (DREAM)
Included Joe Manchin and Congressman Jim Cooper
Manchin did not accept the Affordable Care Act (seen public health insurance as expensive), the DREAM Act, same sex marriage in 2015 (still argues that there should be no discrimination due to sexuality) and supported the Mexican wall
Bipartisanship with the Republicans
Manchin worked with Republican Pat Tooney
They voted with the Republicans when it came to easing the Dodd-Frank banking rules in 2018
Manchin was the only Democrat to cote for Brett Kavanaugh's nominations
However, Manchin did vote to impeach Trump and against ACB becoming a justice
Less supportive of gun control (high NRA rankings) and often have no official stance on social issues
Associated with the Blue Dog Coalition
Republican Factions
Moderates
Made up the last two Presidential candidates John McCain (2008) and Romney (2012)
Susan Collins approved Biden's nominations of Brown-Jackson for SC justice
2020 Collins publicly criticised the Trump administration for wanting to abandon the Affordable Cares Act
Collins and Murkowski voted for same sex marriage
2010 Mike Lee unseated Utah Republican Senator Bob Bennett who was criticised for not being conservative enough
Party polarisation has squeezed the Republicans like it has the Democrats
They are less socially conservative than other factions of the Republican party
They advocate for a bigger role of the state in society and the economy
More sympathetic towards immigration and high public spending on education
Names include Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Congressman John Katko
Associated with the Tuesday Group
Fiscal conservatives
Associated with the Freedom Caucus and in 2017 they tired to influence Trump by sending 228 regulations they want removed to him
They argue for measures to cut prison population due to the high costs (death penalty)
They resist bipartisan
Have a 'no compromise' approach when it comes to working with the Democrats
House Speaker John Boehner 2015 resisted bipartisan even after increasing pressure (especially after 2013 government shutdown)
The Freedom Caucus is made up of the most stubborn and awkward faction for the Republican party to manage
2015 national debt
Was $18 trillion and Rand Paul and criticised the Republicans for this
Paul argued against high $740 billion defence budget for being too high
Paul is a strong libertarian so softer when it comes to things like drugs
2017 Tax and Jobs Act
Seen Trump being a fiscal conservative
2020 election proposed $4.4 trillion spending cut in Medicaid, Children's health insurance etc
Cut revenue by $1.5 trillion over 10 years
Includes names like Rand Paul and Andy Biggs
They want very low government spending in all areas to reduce to budget deficit
Social Conservative
Included names like Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio (now secretary of state) and Mike Pence
Against drug use due to it eroding society and escalate crime (advocated strongly by Texas Congressman Pete Sessions)
May also be a fiscal conservative but both are anti-moderate conservative (Ted Cruz spoke openly against former House Speaker John Boehner)
Associated with the Republican Study Committee
Rand Paul argues for full personhood to embryos meaning an outlaw on abortion (Rubio, Walker and Santorum all pro-life)
Gun ownership
All pro-grun ownership due to the 2nd amendment
Argues that harsher gun laws will not deter mass shootings
There is a religious element as Cruz argues that guns are indirectly supported in the bible (Exodus 22:2 that talks about individuals have a right to defend themselves and their family)
Also don't want to risk a low gun rating from the NRA
Intra-party factionalism can be underestimated
Trump couldn't successfully dismantle Obamacare despite it being something all Republicans want
Trump said to have fell between two stools (not radical enough for some and too radical for others)
Moderate Tuesday Group fears loss of Obamacare as the cuts were too high (argued by Rodney Frelinghuysen)
Obamacare cut was criticised by the Freedom Caucus as they wanted a total removal as they believe healthcare belongs to the free market
Supporters for each party
Race and ethnicity
In the last 12 elections black Americans have given at least 83% of support to the Democrats (86% in 2024)
Obama represented black Americans by being the first black US President getting 95% of support amongst the group in 2008 (turnout amongst this group also increased by 13% as a result)
Clinton in 2016 black support for the Democrats fell after Obama back down to 89%
The hispanic population in the US is increasing and in now up to 19% of the population
In 2000 Bush tried to appeal to the increasing Hispanic vote as he spoke Spanish and his brother married a hispanic woman this led to raise for the democrats from 20% in 1996 to 43% in 2004
In 2025 Trump appealed to the Hispanic gaining 46% of their vote with Harris only 5% in front with 51%
In 2016 Clinton regained the support from the hispanics with a 38% lead
Religion
Protestant and White Evangelicals
Closely linked with social conservatism
Trump won around 80% of the vote amongst white evangelicals in 2016 and 2024
Trump doesn't practice evangelical Christianity but holds many beliefs of Christian nationalism
Protestant are staple support for Republicans giving between 54% and 62% of their vote to them in the last 7 elections
In 2020 Biden attracted nearly 1/4 of the white evangelical vote (29% in Michigan and 14% in Georgia which is triple Clinton's 5% in 2016)
2020 Biden had a lot of ads running on Christian radio and had a more compassionate tone compared to Trump waving a bible outside Washington church as a photo opportunity
Catholics
Traditionally the support of Catholics went to the Democrats due to immigration from Catholic places like Ireland
Since the 1970s Democrat support has wavered due to support for abortion so are now drawn to the Republicans
In 2025 Democrats lost the Catholic vote 51% to 49% (won in 2020 but lost in 2016)
Other religious groups
Both Jewish and Muslim voters strongly favour the Democrats (2020 Biden got 68% of the Jews and 64% of the Muslims)
Trump can be controversial when it comes to Muslims as he said in 2016 "I think Islam hates us" but in 2015 he aid "I love Muslims, I think they are great people"
Attendance at places of worship
Those who worshipped once a month only favoured Trump by 54%
2020 showed that those who worship at least weekly favoured Trump by 61%
Strong correlation between frequency of attendance and party support
No Religion
Advantage is very much with the Democrats
2024 64% with Harris and only 35% with Trump
Women
9 out of 10 elections between 1964 and 2000 women were significantly more supportive over the Democrats (called the gender gap)
2016 and 2020 gender gap was 11 points and was 10 in 2024
With men 54% voting Trump and 44% voting Harris and the same vice versa for women
Due to democrats being more pro-choice, oppose capital punishment and they pushed for the equal rights amendment
Democrats have more high profile female positions (Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris and Nancy Pelosi
Trump made rude remarks about his fellow female Republican candidate Carly Fiorina in 2016 but also in general
Trumps voted among women have increased from 41% in 2016 to 42% in 2020 and 44% in 2024
Education
Those who never attended college/university tend to support the Republicans
Democrats won 55% of college educated votes in 2024
Trump 2020 won the support of 70% of male, white, non-college educated men
Biden increased the votes among white, male non-college educated men white is how he won the election as he upped it to 28% from Clintons 23% in 2016 (especially in the swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin)
Interest Groups
Interest groups are healthy for democracy as they scrutinise the government and help voice the views of the people
Sectional Groups
American Business Conference
National Automobile Dealers Association
US Chamber Of Commerce (represents many businesses)
AFL - CIO (equivalent to British Trade Unions)
American Farm Bureau Federation
NOW
NAACP
Causal groups - National Rifle Association (NRA), Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) and American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)
Key Functions
Representation
Perform an important link between the public and the politicians in all three branches at different levels
Enable a more specific form of representation that what 2 main parties offer
Eg Environmentalists, Gun owners, farmers and businessmen
Citizen participation
Increases opportunity for ordinary citizens to participate in the decision making process between elections
Means greater and more frequent participation (through emails, social media and marches)
Eg in abortion, anti-war or environmentalists
Agenda building
Attempt to influence the agenda of parties, legislators and bureaucrats
Brings together different areas of society to achieve a common interest
Eg abortion with Faith2Action and Americans United for life who have seen more than 400 abortion related bills between 2010-18
Programme Monitoring
May scrutinise and hold gov to account in the implementation of policies to make sure promises are fulfilled
Eg ACLU brought legal challenges to Trumps executive order on him placing a 90 day ban on entry to the US from 7 predominantly muslim countries
Eg the Bipartisan Reform Act 2002
There are more access points in the US compared to the UK due to the state government and the 3 different branches which isn't the case in the UK
Top spenders
National Association of realtors - $86 million (2024)
US Chamber of Commerce - $76 million (2024)
NRA spent $9.2 million on Trump's 2020 election
Opensecrets is the organisation which publishes these numbers
Case Studies
Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense
Want gun violence reform
They work at state and federal level by having a chapter in every state and they work with business
They want policies like background checks on gun owners at a federal level
Firearms Policy Coalition
Fighting for restoration of civil rights (2nd amendment)
Doesn't engage in negotiation, they use aggressive involvement
They want the removal of restrictions on gun laws
It is funded by members and individuals
The Biotechnology Innovation Organisation
Fight for firms so they don't have to charge less for pharmaceutical drugs
They hold meetings and make deals with investment in companies, they also meet with new Congress members
The want no reduction in the cost of pharmaceuticals
They are funded by investors
Patients for affordable drugs
Want lower prices of medical drugs
They have talked to policy makers and use patient stories (including the founders own)
Interest groups will target Congress members who are on the relevant committees to their cause
Methods used
Electioneering and endorsement
Reforms have limited the amount an interest group can give to a candidate which has encouraged PACs and Super PACs which are affiliated to interest groups (NRA and its Victory Fund PAC)
Interest groups actively support/oppose candidates based on their positions (2019 pro-life endorsed Trump and 2020 Biden supported by Stop Gun Violence)
Lobbying
Make direct contact with Congress members and their websites will give directions on how to contact local members and what the current state of legislation is
The small and costant nature of congressional committees makes it easier to aid and build relationships.
They target committee staff as they are more accessible then their bosses (also target standing committees)
Senate Judiciary committee protecting older Americans from financial exploitation 29th June 2016 had pressure group witness Joseph Marquart
Voting Cues and scorecards
This is guidance on which candidate to vote for
Progressive liberal democrats look to groups like AFL-CLO and ADA to reassure their stance
Conservative Republicans look to the ACU and pro-life groups
They publish ratings of legislators and how much they support their policy position of that group
Organising grassroots activity
Seen as most effective, they include organisation of a social media or phone 'blitz' on Congress etc however they can be ignored
Sometimes use marches and demonstrations after controversial SC ruling
January 2016 cross sector of over 1500 interest groups all wrote a letter urging Congress to oppose the Trans Pacific Partnership
Mounting Legal Challenges
Also done through the courts so they support and finance legal cases
1954 Brown v Topeka supported by NAACP
2008 NRA played a role in the District of Columbia v Heller with DC declaring handguns illegal which was said to be unconstitutional
Case Study Methods
Susan B. Anthony list (SBA)
Positive examples of methods used
Raised over $10 million before 2020 election to get pro-life (women) in Congress
87,000 supporters
2020 most success ever with 16 pro-life women in Congress
Referenced by Trump in May 2018
Strongly lobbied for ACB to be nominated as SC justice
Success in cutting federal funds to planned parenthood
Negative examples of methods used
Action isn't solely down to this group instead there was a societal rightward shift
Republicans didn't win the 2020 elections
Sierra Club
Positive examples of methods used
Claims to have 3.8 million supporters
Endorses candidates who have an environmental agenda (Clinton 2016 and Biden 2020)
Uses grassroots tactic with 35,000 volunteers contacting millions of voters in battleground states (2020 made 5.5 million calls, 1.3 million letters and 20 million texts)
Negative examples of methods used
Little support from Republicans due to their close ties with the fossil fuel industry
Environment is rarely a big influence when it comes to deciding who people are going to vote for due to their being so many other issues
Trump 2024 'drill baby drill'
Natural Association of Realtors
Positive examples of methods used
Provides range of services to members like training and certifications
One of the biggest and most active lobbyist as it has its own PAC
Raised over $13 million for the 2020 election which was equally split between the Democrats and the Republicans (mostly incumbents)
Around 1.4 million members (largest trade association in the US)
Success in reauthorisation of the National Flood Insurance Programme (NFIP) and helped secure 7 year reauthorisation of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Programme
Negative examples of methods used
Not too gripping topics and not as highly charged as other debates
PACs and Super PACs
A PAC is most commonly used by business interests, labour union, individual issues and ideological groups. Limited by how much they can give directly but can spend unlimited amount on advertisement and media
Super PACs
They are a type of Political Action Committee which has arisen from Citizens United v Federal Election Committee 2010 (Speechnow v FEC)
They are designated as independent expediture committees and may raise and spend an unlimited amount to advocate for or against candidates
Rules
Prohibited from donating money directly to candidates campaign
They must no coordinate with the Official Campaign for that candidate (there are way around this)
Requirement to disclose donor information to the Federal Election Committee
Influences in the 2024 election
Estimated to have contributed $2.25 billion in total
There are were over 563 Super PACs
Biggest Democratic spender was Future Forward USA who received $56.1 million
They take money from groups who don't disclose their owners so real sources are hidden
Biggest Republican spender was Make America Great Again Inc Mellon gave $125 million
Musk put $75 million into a Super PAC which he founded who got a position after the election as 'special government employee' in the DOGE (department of government efficiency)
Can indirectly influence what happens after the election
Monetary influence
It does have a big influence in US elections
2020 Biden out-raised Trump raising $1.6 billion
Superior funding enables candidates to air more TV ads and employ more fieldwork staff to maximise vote
Neglecting the importance of funding is a risk not many candidates rake
It doesn't have a big influence in US elections
2016 Clinton out-raised Trump and lost
A larger 'war chest' is only one factor in determining the final result
The ability to raise large sums of money just indicates strong candidate/ incumbent this money follows them rather than cheating them into the place
Elections in Congress
Gerrymandering - state governments are allowed to draw their own congressional district boundaries by 'packing' or 'cracking' every 10 years
Power of incumbency
In 2024 95% of Congress were incumbents
There is evidence of strong support for incumbent in congressional elections
Due to incumbent having the ability to provide constituent services eg helping individual constituents or getting legislation passed for federal funds
Higher levels of name recognition than their challenger and likely seek for places on committees which are prestigious
Have huge advantage when it comes to fundraising
Coattails effect is limited
Occurs when a strong candidate for a party at the top of the ticket can help other party candidates get elected at the same time
Seen when Reagan contributed an extra 33 seats in the House and an extra 12 in the Senate with Democrat incumbents being defeated
2016 Trump argued to have helped some Republican senators however many got a higher share of the vote than Trump so his coattails were small/non-existant
Split ticket voting is declining
Positive things for democracy from criteria
Demonstrates a level of engagement
The decline is a bad things for congressional elections
However in 2024 4 states that carried Trump in the election elected Democrat senators (twice as many as 2020,2021 and 2022 Senate elections combined)
Fewer competitive districts
Only 69 of the 435 seats are deemed competitive in 2024
85% of seats solidly Democrat or Republican
Means that winner was basically chosen in the parties primary before a single vote in November ('primary problem')
Believe that low turnout is caused by these uncompetitive areas
President's party tend to loose seats in the midterm elections
Biden midterms
Senate +1, House -9
Lost fewer seats in the House than any other Democratic President in the 1st term in the last 40 years
Pleased by the lack of interference of the MAGA Republicans (accusations of stealing the election)
Trump midterms - Senate +2, House -40
2014 Obama midterms - Senate -9, House -13
2010 Obama midterms - Senate -6, House -63
A postive as it shows freedom of democracy and people having a saw (bad in other ways like 'lame duck' presidency
However often low turnout (2014 36.7% and 2024 46.6%