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What are the origins of the North Korean nuclear crisis and how has it…
What are the origins of the North Korean nuclear crisis and how has it evolved over time?
Origins
July 1953: US nuclear coercion against North Korea to sign an armistice
must have nuclear weapons and extensive array of missiles to be able to deter wars in future
lack of nuclear power for DPRK, helps US maintain presence in Northeast Asia, seeing US is dominant and nuclear power at the time
since US has weapons, so should DPRK
Theory → offensive realism (US-DPRK relations)
states maximizing wealth of capabilities to survive
Evolution
At first, was very hindered
1985: North Korea signing Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
on the cusp of producing its own nuclear weapons, being seen as an international player to denuclearization
post-Korean war, no one helping NK starting its nuclear program
Post-Cold War: NO DEPENDENCE
Isolation; China + USSR (two biggest allies) turning backs on NK; take matters into own hands, will provide themselves with weapons they need
US signaling it will launch a military strike in Yongbyon nuclear complex, believing weapons are being built there... →
DPRK exits NPT
DPRK exiting NPT → fires its Rodong missiles towards Japan (where US' bases are located) , shows countries anti-US that NK is a country with missiles, starting trade practices, e.g. Iran
1994 Agreed Framework
NK's process of freezing and dismantling its weapon programs
US still remaining suspicious that two graphite-moderated reactors are being built in Taechon and Yongbyon...
incoming Bush Administration scraps it
Six-Party Talks and Joint Principles Statement = have NK give up and/or faze out nuclear programs; Western + Asian powers involved
fizzles out as it drags on and nothing ends up occurring
October 2006: NK tests its first nuclear weapon
"strategic patience," trying to wait out NK believing it would die out...
NK continues missile and nuclear tests
; 4 underground 2009, 2013, 2016, and satellite launches in 2013 and 2016
September 2017: NK conducts underground hydrogen bomb test, approx. 20X yield of atomic weapon dropped on Hiroshima
July + November 2017: ICBM tests
2023: tested Hwasong-18, a solid fuel rocket → can be stored, and can launch them then,
Essay Format
Origins
Realizing it needed to protect itself against other powers
following laws of offensive realism
-- having offensive capabilities
-- international system is anarchic
mostly against US, seeing US-South Korea relationship and seeing its presence as a threat
-- STARTED WITH
July 1953: US nuclear coercion against North Korea to sign an armistice
Evolution
interested in nuclear weapons as early as 1956
, asking allies i.e. Soviet Union and China for help in nuclear program, both countries refusing
*1967: Soviets did help DPRK build Yongbyon nuclear complex
1993: US' threats against Yongbyon nuclear complex → North Korea exits NPF and fires its Rodong missiles towards Japan:
shows its missile capability
shows it will target US bases if necessary
1994 Agreed Framework, Six-Party Talks and Joint Principles Statement have all been ways for US to try to have North Korea agree to denuclearization but without success...
has given North Korea more resolve to test its nuclear weapons (against US 'hostile policies')
i.e. first one in 2006, 4 underground ones during Obama administration, most recently 2023, testing solid fuel rocket
arms control
new solution? more specifically
inter-Korean arms control??
not seeing inter-Korean arms control as second to wider regional security concerns, but rather that
inter-Korean arms control = best approach in dettering potential nuclear outbreak
US recognizing North Korea's strength, backing away from negotiations, and leaving Korean Peninsula to work it out amongst themselves,
NOT HAVING NEGOTIATING STRUCTURE B/W US AND DPRK