Era of crises 2009-
Rule of law
Art 2 TEU
Founding values of the EU
New member states must abide by these values
Works pretty well --> thorough inspection when a new member state is joining
Problem: the EU doesn't know how to deal with a member state who doesn't follow these values
Biggest problems: Hungary and Poland
Hungary and Poland (ongoing)
Right-wing populist parties win elections
illiberal concept of democracy
Orban's speech on illiberal democracy
No independent court or media: Especially rural areas of Hungary struggle to get any free media
Bills and checks
Winner takes all in the elections
Rejects EU values
Started a culture war
Hungary: complete rejection on asylum seekers: only white people, no mixing of races
Poland: Takes away all abortion rights --> Polish constitutional tribunal
The EU's response is slow to Hungary, since all of this came as a surprise
Better response to Poland
Challenge of independence of courts
Ruling party's systematic attempt to take over the top courts (e.g. changing judges by forcing them to retire)
Attempt to create a disciplinary chamber in court - can sanction judges if they go against the government
EU's response
Political response
ART 7 TEU: If a member state is in consistent opposition of the EU values, member states membership rights can be taken away
Membership rights can mean many different things (e.g. monetary benefits from the EU)
All the MS have to agree unanimously --> Poland and Hungary protect each other --> this has not progressed
Commission charged Poland 20.12.2017
Judicial response
Commission started to sue the countries for the violations
Cases in the national courts
Case of AK 2019: chambers violated the independence of the judges --> Court of justice: right to fair trial; does not allow courts that are not independent --> Poland refuses to follow this --> gets a fine of 1 million dollars a day for not complying --> 2023 Poland partially complies
Polish Consitutional tribunal 3/2019: any Eu supervision on the Polish judicial system is unconstitutional (same for the court of human rights)
Financial response
Regulations EU 2020/2092 on general regime of conditionality for the protection of the Union Budget
If the country doesn't have rule of law, no financial support (costs of over tens of billions of dollars)
Poland: solving the problems as soon as possible: EU won't release money until complete change
Lessons learned
Political responses are slow and ineffective
Need for unanimity
Judicial and financial responses are more effective
Poland has hope: the opposition won last elections (oct 2023)
Massive turnout of young votes and women
These problems can't be solved by outside forces, it's for the country to do
EU can delay these developments against its values
Trying to inform the voters of the consequences
The crisis is not over, Poland is doing good, Hungary is in trouble
Ukraine 2013-
2013: Ukraine agrees to an association agreement with the EU (trade agreement)
Russia objects: Ukraine's pro-Russia president rejects the deal and wants to get closer to Russia
Massive protests in Kiev - Euromaidan (snipers kill many protesters)
Opposition grows larger: the pro-Russia president is overthrown
Russia invades Crimea --> Russian perspective: civilization: it's not possible for Ukraine to join the "western civilization" since it's part of "Russian civilization"
February 2022 - Russia escalates the invasion to war
EU's response
Quick and effective: surprising to everyone
Massive sanctions on Russia and individuals connected to Putin's regime --> also Belarus and Iran (possibly China?)
Massive support to Ukraine: humanitarian, military and economic support (EU institutions are the largest supporters), massive support from individual member states
Massive support for Ukrainian immigrants: Temporary protection to all Ukrainian immigrants --> no need for applications etc. --> 4 million Ukrainians are taking advantage of this
Limit Russians movement in the EU - Different perspectives to this in the EU --> some stopped all movement - some want the Russians to see western world and bring it back to Russia
Limit Russians new stations in the EU
Massive effort to move EU from depending on Russian gas (not fully independent yet, but we have survived well)
Will the EU's support last?
Are we doing right things enough, sufficiently and quickly? --> artillery and ammunition promises? Will those hold?
Brexit 2020
Long lasting skepticism about EU membership (esp. among the conservative party)
David Cameron offers a referendum on EU-membership to please the right wing voters
Referendum 2017 ends up passing --> the UK wants to leave
Who voted to leave?
Upper-middle class wanted to stay
Middle class is split
Working class wants to leave (education level; old people want to leave, young stay)
Why the need to leave?
Immigration concerns: too many people coming from the east (esp. Turkey, not true, just a tactic to gain votes)
Healthcare concerns: immigrants will take advantage of the UK welfare state (not true --> most people coming from the east came to work --> good for the UK)
Debate dominated by dishonesty on a massive scale: scared the people by "turkeys Eu membership 2020 and overflow of immigrants" --> not true or even possible
Leaving in the eyes of law
Art 50 TEU
Court of justice: Wightman case to interpret the article --> sovereign rights to unilateral withdrawal
Withdrawal negotiations start (a divorce agreement): negotiations were hard but successful in the end (without agreement the withdrawal would have been very messy)
UK leaves the union properly in the end of 2020
TCA: trade and corporation agreement is also negotiated: what happens after the union?
Thin agreement:UK didn't want any kind of free movement of people, EU doesn't give access to single market either (similar agreement to the one with Canada) --> you just can't pick and choose what you want to benefit from
Consequences of leaving the EU
UK's economy doing worse (esp. after covid)
Idea: Brexit would show that the EU is a sinking ship and other countries would leave too --> not happening (even most right-wing populist parties don't advocate leaving the EU anymore)
Leaving wasn't that hard since the UK doesn't use EURO
European debt crisis (Euro-area) 2009
Financial crisis in the USA --> reflects to Europe
The EU had taken responsibility over some tasks that belonged to the member states (problem: integration had gone too far and not far enough at the same time)
The start of the crisis
Greece (and some other countries) had lived beyond their means
Spain and Ireland etc. spending in the private sector had gone overboard --> people lent money to buy real estate --> prices drop and banks are in trouble --> real estate bubble
Banks had lent money to each other (internationally too) --> states had to step in to save banks --> states in debt
No investors
Art 125 TFEU: No rescue efforts from other member states, everyone is responsible for their own economy
Art 123 TFEU: No rescue efforts from the ECB
To avoid complete collapse, EU's decision-makers invented complicated rescue efforts to Portugal, Greece, Spain and Ireland
EFSF = European Financial Stability Facility (temporary)
ESM = European Stability Mechanism --> possible to lend money to states in trouble
PRINGLE 2012: The ESM is not against the EU's constitutional treaties
ECB commits to OMT = The Outright Monetary Transactions Program
Need to solve the crisis whatever it takes
GAUWEILER 2015: ratification of ECB's right to put OMT measures into effect
Banks lent money to troubled banks under strict conditions + many measures were awaited from the troubled states
Moral problem: why do even poorer countries have to use their tax income to help others?
Prevention of further crises: The Commission supervises the member states and keeps them in order
Monetary union has to be also a political union --> the five president's report 2015 --> finishing touches of the EMU --> economic union, financing union, fiscal union, democratic responsibility obligation
The European Migrant crisis 2015
Even though lines between member states have faded, they still don’t have unified politics
In 2015 the number of refugees grew significantly
EU measures:
An agreement with Turkey about relocating etc.
France insisted on EU renewal --> point: the EU is too weak
Fear of decreasing wages
Member state has to inform EU about its intention of withdrawal which leads to negotitations