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Uncertainty In Project Activity Times - Coggle Diagram
Uncertainty In Project Activity Times
expected time (3 time estimates)
most probable time, m
the most probable activity time under
normal
conditions
pessimistic time, b
the maximum activity time if significant delays are encountered
optimistic time, a
minimum activity time if everything progresses
ideally
Calculate Probability of PCT
CP expected time, E(t)
CP variance
identify critical path
standard deviation for PCT
expected time (t)
z value and probability (using table)
the larger variances, the larger the degree of uncertainty
should monitor the progress of the activity even though E(t) does not identify it as criticalmactivity
Introduction
Accurate estimates of activity time are important when creating a schedule
If activity times are uncertain, the three time estimates help the project manager cope uncertainty when determining the critical path and the activity schedule