Discuss whether alliances are sources of stability or instability in Asian international relations; MY ANSWER: instability
What is Asian IR?
Ideas of Stability
What distinguishes Asian IR from IR in general?
Eurocentricity of mainstream IR theory and empirics
o Eurocentricity focusing on "ideologies" coming out of Europe as the norm and 'the standard'; going away from Eurocentricity and by focusing deep dow on historical and cultural factors, looking at new pods as how to look at Asian IR
Empirical examples (historical + cultural factors) from Asian cases seem to contradict existing theories
o Confucian long peace
o observed tendency to bandwagon rather than balance
o The predominance of hedging behavior over balancing
What are the conventional factors that mainstream IR theories such as realism point to as the causes of stability?
o Nuclear deterrence
o US presence in Asia as offshore and onshore balancer
US-Taiwan
US-Japan? US-Korea?
YES STABILITY
Stability by being cautious of adversary; by having nothing extraordinary bad happen, stability is kept; is it the best way to live, not necessarily, but it is a stable way to live...
Territorial Disputes
Regional Organizations i.e. ASEAN
Sino-Japan relations (Kim, Oct.17)
MAIN ISSUE: East China Sea surrounding 'inhabited small islands and rocks' known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan
o closely related to important interests of other countries, e.g. US, as both China and Japan have ties with country; BASICALLY, TERRITORIAL DISPUTES = IMPORTANCE INTENRATIONALLY!!; US not wanting to be dragged into wars, and wanting to promote peace in region...
Power dynamics i.e. US' involvement within Asia
Sino-Japan relations (Kim, Oct.17)
Economic reasons → economic cooperation, need for regional stability amongst two nations
Regional Stability → looking almost at regional hegemony, and how when stability is in favor of Japan and/or China it's good, but if other power tries grasping more power, it is seen as a 'threat to regional stability...'
The relations between China and Japan, two largest economies in Asia and an inextricably tied power dyad bound by their geostrategic proximity and economic/cultural integration, ‘bear directly on peace, stability and prosperity of the region and the world as a whole’ (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, 2012) (p.51)
COUNTERARGUMENT!: Alliances Source of Instability
Sino-Japan relations (Kim, Oct.17); Territorial Disputes
The two claim that their rights to islands are "mutually exclusive," making both sides unable to accept other's stance; this constant ideology never reaches a solution among two nations, therefore instability... always tension, or on edge (p.49)
Chinese and Japanese citizens respectfully being fearful/concerned over potential conflict over territorial disputes → leading to instability b/w two regions and across East Asia (p.46)
- "the rise of nationalism in both countries has further plagued Sino- Japan relations, creating politically colder climate and even damaging their previously warm economics ties" (p.42); nationalism → more of one's success → growing power...
- "regional power shift due to clash of Sino-Japan nationalisms in conjunction with historically rooted animosity on both sides, creating an environment more conducive to bilateral tensions rather than mutual trust and cooperation. Mounting tensions between China and Japan challenge a widely held assumption that close economic relations would lead to a more stable regional order" (p.41) THAT'S HUGE
o Alliances as a whole can't have each others interests 100% of the time; always making other state "on edge" of something if state they have alliance with does something unexpected or something...
- e.g.
o Alliances with non-Asian states e.g. US leads to politics partly shaping external powers' wishes, therefore within 'Asian IR", can lead to sources of instability; never stable among those states because always "third party" watching, influencing their moves;
- e.g. China-Taiwan alliances unstable, US being major actor; US-Taiwan + US-China relations stable, but its involvement makes China-Taiwna alliances unstable, where Taiwan relies on US, and China wants US out of the way... common actor is US
Regional Organisations e.g. ASEAN
ASEAN way's "of informal, consensual, and incremental decision making and focus on confidence building measures have persuaded China especially to adopt a "mutual secu- rity" discourse, more transparency about its military plans, and multilateral approaches to its territorial disputes in the South China" (p.123)
- through this, China's vision is seen e.g. East China Sea = instability in region
ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), key example of strategy of engaging many big powers, Asian and others, i.e. US, even EU into regional security dialogue (p.124); focusing on regional security = stability in region
Looking at its EAS implications, ASEAN's "symbolic value of the summit as a vision of an 'Asian security order for Asians'" (p.126); yes but that's all talk, and not much evidence of it happening...; seeing it as a long-term process, WE CAN'T SEE THE EFFECTS OF IT TODAY!
Omni-enmenshment → multiple countries in Southeast Asia pursuing that individually BUT AS WELL THROUGH ASEAN is concerning.. seeing term in itself is hard to carry out, if not impossible;
Omni-enmeshment function → cooperative security: states cooperate with each other through ascription to norms and principles such as TAC, and through informal dialogue and exchange, cultivating a climate of conflict avoidance and functional cooperation shared issue areas" (p.131);
o is conflict avoidance the best way for stability... looking at Korean Peninsula, and 38th parallel... is that considered stability?
Ranking ASEAN fourth in the hierarchical regional order looking at "regional security affairs" kinda makes you think that it isn't as beneficial as other alliances per se... therefore how much does it help Asia in being stable? (p.149)
US-Japan Alliance
US-Japan Alliance
The Revised Security Treaty of 1960
- 10-year time limit, decennial renewal; has been renewed and is is today
- More of a collective defense agreement than the treaty signed in 1952
**Joint defense area (“territories under Japanese administration”)- stil kinda of a restricted view...
- stil kinda of a restricted view...
*Seen as adding stability b/c shows how US sees Japan and the seriousness these two nations are with each other...
alliance: pool resources against common challenge/threat; strong alliances have joint military plans amongst allies to fight enemies
Theory of Alliances (Walt 1987)
- lists as to what alliances are, how they come to be, etc.
What has been the purpose of the US-Japan alliance?
- balance against USSR, but maybe keep Japan down? not re-militarize and become an aggressive state (as it was during WIII and years leading up to it) and have it integrate "peacefully" in East Asia
How might the US-Japan alliance evolve with time and changing strategic
- Japan becomes a more proactive power, and less of a passive power living under US security umbrella, as seen during the Cold War; turning its defense expenses from below 1% to 2% (that's more than double!)
San Francisco Peace Treaty and Security Treaty (April 28, 1952); ended American occupation of Japan → Japan sovereign again!
Limitations INCLUDED:
- not a collective self-defense arrangement: one-sided treaty, US provides military security, but Japan doesn't do anything... Japan seen as a 'ward' to US
- US forces stationed in Japan “may” be used for Japan’s security: no guarantee... ambiguity
- Okinawa, under US control (post-WWII)
- No prior consultation with Japanese government necessary before using US military forces stationed in the country → US can do whatever they wanted to do in regards to how they ran military forces in Japan
- No time limit to the use of Japanese bases by US forces; no say in duration of US forces in that regard...
TREATIES NOT REALLY HELPING ALLIANCE PER SE, JUST HINDERING JAPAN FROM BECOMING BIG POWER!!
The Revised Security Treaty of 1960
- 10-year time limit, decennial renewal; has been renewed and is is today
- More of a collective defense agreement than the treaty signed in 1952
**Joint defense area (“territories under Japanese administration”)- stil kinda of a restricted view...
NOT REALLY A SOURCE OF STABILITY, JUST IMRPVOING RELATIONS B/W COUNTRIES BUT NOT HELPING MUCH WITH ASIAN IR IN ITSELF!
EX: Yoshida Doctrine; every incoming Japanese PM sticking with Yoshida Doctrine, US not liking it b/c they are seeing Japan enrich itself while US is freeriding...; wants Japan to spend on military defenses, Japan says no...
Why is US-Japan alliance still robust? Soviet threat is gone... economic? Military? nothing about stability of Asia is being brought up...
LOOKING AT SECURITY, IT IS FOR SELF-INTEREST (e.g. with North Korea). NOT FOR REGION
Increase defense budget to 2 percent of GDP by 2027
Restructure Self Defense Force (SDF) to better meet security challenges in the southwest
(East China Sea, Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands)
Pursue closer operational, strategic, and institutional integration of the SDF with US armed
forces
North Korea not giving up on reunifying Korea under its rule; Kim Il Sung fighting Japanese forces (Kwantong army) in Manchuria; even now descendants fight each other (North Korea and Japan having SOUR SOUR relations!! SWORN ENEMIES!
US-ROK Alliance
negotiate division of Korean Peninsula, so Soviets if they wanted to would sphere of influence in Northern part of peninsula, and Americans having some presence in South, to protect Japan
- Korea as a buffer to shield Japan in US interests
"People's Committees" (allowing ordinary people to have a say in their governance) to Americans sounds like 'communism"; foreign concept to them;
- Korean people want socialism to be state's economic system
US Statement Political Advisor H. Merrell Benninghoff: Korean could go down socialist route (People's Committees), but are encouraging signs of pro-US presence of several hundreds conservatives, bandwagon with US against socialists + nationalists
NOW WE ARE TALKING!
South Korean government under Syngman Rhee signs a Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States as soon as an armistice is signed with North Korea on July 27, 1953;
- FORMALIZE hierarchical relationship b/w US and S. Korea as a security patron and security client
US chose a bilateral mode of alliance-making in East Asia to maximize its power over allies; interact with US 1-1, but did few exchanges in military sphere among American-Asian allies
The US-ROK alliance sought to constrain aggressive leaders like Syngman Rhee who might embroil the United States in unwanted regional wars that could escalate to a world war
- ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT US INTERSETS, NOT OF ASIA!
When North Korean targets missiles, looks at Camp Humphreys (Pyeongtaek)...; nearly 1000 tests have been conducted, since 2011;
- ballistic missile defense
The US-ROK alliances places certain constraints on the South Koreans, in return for a firm security guarantee from the US to protect South Korea from any external attack; South Korean president does not possess wartime operational control over
the ROK armed forces
US-led United Nations Command and then the US-led Combined Forces Command HAS CONTROL OVER SOUTH KOREAN MILITARY DURING WARTIME!
--Unique how leader of sovereign state doesn't have control..
*having Peacetime operational control returned to ROK in 1994 but would need wartime operational control for it to benefit ROK more...
Full operational capacity assessment was being done in 2021, but the Yoon Suk Ryeol government does not seem to want Opcon back; sees more benefits in trusting the US-led command to do the job;
- full dependency and will of US
Recent issues in Alliance
- Nuclear sharing?
-- If ROK has nuclear weapons, w/o wartime operational control, its in hands of US to decide how to use it...; NEED WARTIME OP CON BACK, then see what can happen - Talk of nuclear weapons is mostly a 'ploy' to let N. Korea know what's up, but mostly talk
- ECONOMY! US Inflation Reduction Act (Re-shoring, friend-shoring American productive capacity back, and not relying on adversaries like China) and pressures on South Korean manufacturers and exporters to navigate problems caused by their position in the global supply chain of key technical products
-- South Korea exports lots to China, e.g. building electronic vehicles for cars, components from China... Americans doesn't want that, want S.Koreans to export them to US