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Nov. 21, 2023: Unit 8-9 - Coggle Diagram
Nov. 21, 2023: Unit 8-9
Review from unit 6
P(AL1 - Roll5(1Dice)) = 1 - (1 - P(Roll5))^1
AL = at least
1 - 5/6 = 1/6
1 - P(Roll5) = probability of not getting a 5 on a dice roll
5/6
1 - (1 - X) = X
X represents any number
for example/proof this works: 1- (1 -
7
) =
7
example
only a 1 in a billion chance there is even an earth-like planet
1/1 000 000 000
astronomers estimate that there are 2 billion earth-like planets in the galaxy
solution
1 - (1 - 1/1 000 000 000)^2 000 000 000
1 - 14/100 =
86/100
analogies (unit 8)
often used in scientific contexts
darwin said that animals in the wild can share a common ancestor
proof being: even though two dogs can be two different breeds, they are still dogs: somewhere in history, they share a common ancestor
using an analogy in an argument
"jupiter's moon europa is similar to earth. since earth has life on it, europa probably does too"
"(1) like earth, europa has a salt water ocean and (2) a source of heat below it (produced by tidal forces from jupiter's gravity). since (3) earth has life on it, probably (4) europa does too"
analogical argument pattern is on page 186 in the course manual
analogical normative arguments
generalizing from a sample (unit 9)
generalizing from a sample is risky, though saving time and work
example
"with the rise of social media, phone addiction has become common, calms psychologists at gotham university. addicts use their phones compulsively even when it's bad for work, school, etc. by surveying first year students in psychology and philosophy classes at GU in the fall term n = 800), the researchers determined that 22% of first year university students are phone addicts"
population
sample size
measured feature
sample feature?
the larger of a sample you take from a population, the less varied results you will get (will become more reliable)
1:3 = 1/4 = 25%
accuracy and precision are not the same thing
accuracy = how close the truth
precise = exactness (not truthness)
for example, you could get an answer that is a very exact number such as 4.4839, but still be incorrect (inaccurate)
for example:
high accuracy, high precision
: the solar system has 8 planets
high accuracy, low precision
: the solar system has around 10 planets
low accuracy, low precision
: the solar system has thousands of planets
low accuracy, high precision
: the solar system has 22 planets
margin of error: when a +/- sign is stuck to a number
lower precision means bigger target
sample = work