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Unit 4: Section 5: Elections - Coggle Diagram
Unit 4: Section 5: Elections
Presidential elections
Balanced ticket:
pairing of presidential and vice presidential candidates on a ticket, who attract support for different reasons, thereby making the broadest appeal to candidates.
When are elections held:
First Tuesday of November every 4 years
Who can run for President
Constitutional requirements
Be born in the United States
Be at least 35 years old
Lived in the U.S. for 14 years or more
Additional experience
Political experience
Major party endorsement
Personal characteristics
Able to raise large sums of money
How long can you be President:
8 years, 2 four year terms
How is the President elected
Candidates announce that they are entering the race. This usually happens 1-2 years before the November election - invisible primaries
Members in the same party run against each other, trying to become the party’s candidate during the primaries and caucuses.
At the National Party Convention the party selects a candidate, the candidate selects a “running mate” for vice president
The party writes a “platform” of goals and promises.
When is the President sworn in?
January 20, President sworn in, in Washington, D. C. He recites his oath”
How do Presidential Candidates campaign?
Giving speeches
Meeting the public
Giving interviews
Paying for ads on TV, radio, and in the newspaper
Who can vote for President
A United States citizen
18 years of older
A resident of a state
Registered to vote
How do they vote
Punching a hole in a card
Touching a computer screen
Putting an X on a paper ballot
next to the candidate name.
How are canddiates selected:
Presidential primary – state-based election to choose a party’s candidate. It shows support for candidates among ordinary voters.
Run in states with large populations e.g. California. State run so there are several variations.
Presidential caucuses – state-based series of meetings to choose a party’s candidate. They attract unrepresentative and low turnouts.
Usually held in geographically large but thinly populated states e.g. Iowa, North Dakota and Nevada.
What are the main types of primaries?
Proportional – delegates are awarded to the candidates in proportion to the votes they get e.g. all democrat and most republican primaries
Closed – only registered party members can vote in the party primary e.g. only registered Democrats can vote in the Democrat primary
Open – any registered voter can vote in either party’s primary - Allows cross-over voting e.g. in 2008 significant numbers of independents and Republicans voted for Senator Barack Obama.
Modified primaries - like closed primaries but allow independents to vote as well
Winner-takes-all – some republican primaries e.g. Arizona, Donald Trump received all 58 delegates
How necessary the primaries
Necessary
Presidential candidates emerge during them.
A large number of candidates are eliminated by them.
Delegates (who make the final decision about the candidate) are chosen by them.
Not necessary
Primaries often merely confirm decisions made during the ‘invisible primary’
What goes on in the media is often more important e.g. televised candidate debates.
Many presidential skills are not tested e.g. ability to compromise, ability to work with Congress.
Strengths of primaries
Increased levels of participation by voters.
Increased choice of candidates.
Process opened up to outside candidates e.g. Obama, Trump.
Weaknesses of primaries
Can lead to voter apathy
Voters are often unrepresentative
Process is too long, too expensive, too dominated by the media
What affects voter turnout
Demography – between states and between groups e.g. age, income, education
Type of primary – open primaries are more likely to attract higher voter turnout
How competitive the nomination race is – e.g. 2016 turnout was 28.5% compared to 14.5% in 2012
Whether the nomination has been decided e.g. New York Republican was on Super Tuesday when the Republican race was undecided
What is the role of the National party convention?
The meeting held every four years by each of the two major parties to select presidential and vice presidential candidates and agree the party platform.
hat are the formal functions of the National Party Conferences?
Choose the party’s presidential candidate – candidate must receive a majority of delegates votes.
Choose the party’s vice-presidential candidate – this function is no-longer applicable as running-mates are now announced before the convention
Deciding the party platform – put together by the Platform Committee and then agreed at the National Party Conference.
What are the informal functions of the National Party Conferences?
Promoting party unity
Enthusing the party faithful
Enthusing the ordinary voters
Post-convention ‘bounce’ – opinion polls taken directly after the Conference
How important are National party conventions?
Important
The only time the national parties meet together.
Opportunity to promote party unity after the primaries.
Opportunity to enthuse the party faithful to campaign for the ticket.
Not important
Much reduced TV coverage.
Ordinary voters don’t really see them as important.
Nowadays make few significant decisions - merely confirm decisions made earlier that are already known about.
How is the vice presidential candidate chosen?
Chosen by the presidential candidate.
Nomination confirmed by a majority vote of delegates at the National party convention
Big media event
Different strategies used:
Balanced ticket e.g. Biden-Harris [2020]
Potential for government e.g. Trump-Pence [2016]
Party unity e.g. Kerry-Edwards [2004]
Are televised debates important?
Usually three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate.
Only major party candidates invited to participate
Play a decisive role in the campaign [2012]
Affect opinion polls
Important for the less well-known challenging candidate.
Winners don’t always go on to win e.g. Clinton, 2016.
Trump’s numerous debate mistakes didn’t lose him voters.
Policy detail is rarely discussed.
What is the role of the Electoral College:
The institution established by the Constitution to indirectly elect the president and vice-president. The Electors cast their ballots in their state capitals.
How many electors are needed to win?
There are 538 presidential electors. Victory requires one over half. So, a great deal of importance is placed on the concept of 270 to win.
The winner-take-all system gives all of a State’s electoral votes to the candidates who wins the popular vote of the State. Even if the candidate wins by one vote, they receive all of the votes.
Does the Electoral College still effectively select a President?
Critics note that the electoral process does not always end up with the winner of the popular vote winning the electoral vote and the presidency. Critics argue that winner-take-all has made this a bigger concern.
Four times in history, the person with fewer popular votes became President through the electoral college system. The most recent example was the election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Donald Trump: 62,000,0000 votes, 304 Electoral College votes
Hillary Clinton: 65,000,000 votes, 227 Electoral College votes
Electoral College
Advantages
Preserves the voice of the small-population states e.g. Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska.
Usually promotes a two-horse race, with the winner receiving more than 50% of the popular vote e.g. Joe Biden [2020] won 51.3% of the popular vote.
Disadvantages
Small-population states are over-represented.
Winner-takes-all system can distort the result.
Possible for the loser of the popular vote to win the Electoral College vote e.g. Donald Trump [2016]
Importance of money
What determines success in an election
Being a Democrat or Republican at least five years before the election
Having held an elected government office previously
Employing the largest campaign team
Raising more money than the opponent
Example of spending:
In 2020, $14bn was spent on the US Presidential elections, which dwarfs election spending anywhere else in the world.
What do candidates need to spend their campaign money on
Political parties are not strong in the US. Therefore, presidential candidates need to project their own image far more strongly. This needs substantial spending.
It is expensive to advertise on television, especially during the prime TV slots. Despite, this being the age of the internet TV still the main form of spreading the campaigning messages.
Messaging to target key voter groups or swing states needs to be undertaken with precision and extensive polling, which is an expensive science.
Specialist campaign staff need to be employed and the latest specialist technologies, website and social media methods used
Presidential campaigns are long - they start now, almost two years before the actual election. At the same time congressional, state and other elections mean that election campaigning is on an almost permanent nature.
Sources of election finances
Candidates personal finances:
It helps to be a billionaire, like Donald Trump.
Party political money:
Either the Democrat or Republican national and congressional party committees supply money to their candidate
Federal funding:
This was introduced to try and stop election spending spiralling ever higher. For every $1 raised the federal government would match this. In 2008, however, Obama correctly believed that he could raise far more than the federal funding limit and therefore rejected federal funding.
Political Action Committees (PACs):
Registered with the Federal Election Committee (FEC) but have limits placed on them, with respect to the amount they can raise or spend on any one individual.
501/527 groups:
Advocacy groups who normally work on behalf of a cause group or someone else to promote a candidate. They are tax exempt and can collect and spend unlimited amounts.
Super PAC’s:
Independent expenditure-only committees who can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money but unlike ordinary PACS they cannot co-ordinate with candidates or give them money directly.
2010 decision by Supreme Court in Citizens United, ruled political funding could not be restricted because it breached the First Amendment of the US Constitution on Freedom of Speech.
Fund raising through the internet or social media:
this can generate large amounts of money from many millions of small donations. In 2008 Obama was able to raise some $186 million from donors of $200 or less.
Types of money
Soft money
Name of the donors must be disclosed; there are limits applied to the amount that can be given
Organisations are allowed to coordinate their efforts to help elect a presidential candidate
Traditional type of political spending.
Groups that are involved are candidate committees, political parties, and traditional Political Action Committees (PAC).
Hard money
Expenditure not made by the candidate themselves but by other individuals and organisations; can accept unlimited sums of money from individuals, corporations, or unions.
Doesn’t include traditional PACs (Soft money) or political parties. With these donations the groups can then engage in direct political activities such as buying negative or positive campaigning advertising for or against a candidate or running a phone bank designed to promote one candidate or another.
Called ‘outside political spending or ‘independent or non-coordinated’ spending.
Influence of money in elections
The necessity of raising large sums of money in order to run for public office; the protracted electoral process for the Presidency and its financial consequences, the soaring cost of running for Congress.
The failure of legislation to regulate and control spending at election time.
The decline in the role of public spending (‘matching funds’) in presidential elections and the development of alternative sources of finance.
The developing role of Super PAC’s and PAC’s in the process of spending at election time.
What determines voting behaviour
Long term voting determinant of voting behaviour
Partisanship
Between 1896-1932 Republicans were dominant party. They dominated every region except the South.
Wall Street Crash changed this. Democrats formed ‘New Deal Coalition’ – included blue collar workers and white Southerners
Realignment of voting behaviour
In the second half of the twentieth century the ‘solid south’ vote went over to the Republicans and Democrats made gains in the northern states. Why?
Racial desegregation:
Democrat President Johnson passed Civil Rights Act 1964, and Voting Rights Act 1965. From 1964 about 90% of African Americans have supported Democrats. Democrats steadily lost ‘solid south’.
Ideology issues:
Republicans became steadily more conservative esp. on role of government. Democrats became more ‘tax and spend’.
Economic issues:
More lower income groups supported Democrats, Republicans were supported by the wealthier looking for tax cuts (Reaganism)
Moral issues:
Republicans became associated with pro-family, anti abortion lobby and Christian right.
Ethnic group issues:
Democrats always been a party of recent immigrants. Republicans more associated with WASPs. However, since 1960s immigration has increased and been mainly Latino. Both parties try to court Latino vote as is fastest growing group.
Gender issues:
Increasingly visible gender gap. From 1980 on women have leaned towards Democrats. However, gap may be closing.
Is partisanship still important in US presidential elections?
Red America [Republicans]
Predominantly white
Largely Protestant (esp. evangelical)
Rural, small town or suburban
Fiscally and socially conservative
Blue America [Democrats]
Racial rainbow - white, black, Asian, Hispanic/Latino
Urban
Socially liberal
Support gun control measures
What are the main issues that concern voters?
Economy
Health Care
Terrorism
Federal budget deficit
Factors affecting voting behaviour
African American vote
Solidly Democratic since 1930s. This is due to New Deal. Black vote is concentrated in certain areas due to re-districting.
Welfare programmes benefit poor
Democrat support for civil rights movement
Democrat support for affirmative action
Democrat black role models
Republican party’s failure to support black interests.
Hispanic vote
‘Sleeping giant’ of US politics
Concentrated in certain key areas like Florida
Tend to vote Democrat for social not religious reasons
Illegal immigration issue
Religious vote
WASPs strong Republicans
Catholic voters historically Democratic but in 2004 many groups switched to Republicans due to issues of gay marriage and abortion
Jewish voters traditionally Democratic - key voting blocs in New York and Florida
Christian fundamentalists – strong Republican supporters in past. Strong in bible belt and the South.
Black Protestants overwhelmingly Democrat.
Working class male vote
Class and education have become increasingly important, especially since 2016.
White, older, blue-collar, non-college educated men living in the Rust Belt (Northeast/Midwest) - 71% voted Trump in 2016
White non-college educated men - 24% voted Democrat in 2016, 34% voted Democrat in 2020
Gendered vote:
More women vote
Mostly they vote Democrat
‘Security moms’ in 2004 and ‘hockey moms’ in 2008
Women are more pro-choice, anti-guns, and anti-death penalty. Favour health and education benefits, not hawkish on foreign policy and more environmentally friendly.
Trump [2016] - 41% of female votes
Biden [2020] - 57% of female votes
Age votes:
Older voters more likely to be partisan and thus to vote.
Younger voters more de-aligned and volatile
Geographical vote:
No longer Democrat ‘solid South’ but the Northeast seems to be solid for Democrats
However, Northeast has a declining population
South is still solidly Republican.
More densely populated areas tend to vote Democrat and more sparsely populated Republican. Thus the real battlegrounds seem to be the suburbs.
Factors determining short-term voting behaviour
Image/personality of the presidential candidate
Single issues or issues
New political or economic events
Political advertising
Presidential debates
Economic issues
Why does voter turnout fall?
A century ago some 80% of all eligible voters regularly turned out for American presidential elections.
Voter apathy
Problems with registration
Disillusionment with politicians
Alienation from the political process