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Scenario Planning 5 Years - Coggle Diagram
Scenario Planning 5 Years
Depression
Deflation
Real Wages Increase
Cost of Living goes Down
Layoffs
Mom and Vanessa lose Jobs?
Dad Keeps Job
Money Printing
UBI / Helicopter Money
Increased Government Debt
Debt to Private Net Worth Increased
Gold Debt per Capita Increases
Dollar Devaluation
Precious Metals Increase?
Zero Interest Rates
Refinancing Debt Time
Hard to Get Loans
Stock-Gold Drop
Parents retire w/ Debt
Sell off Assets
Sell part of Retire Funds
Deflation
Inflation
Downsize House?
Use Equity to pay off debt
Move away from Front Royal
Stagflation
Inflation
Recession
Commodity Bubble Continues
Social Unrest
Civil War?
Red vs Blue
Riots
General Strike
Stagnation
Low-Neg Inflation
Imports Decreased?
Low Interest Rates + Money Printing
Loan Refi
UBI?
Inc Gov Debt
Real GDP Growth Flat
Stock-Gold Flat
Prosperity
Stock-Gold Rise
No Worries?
Strategy makes ~80% avg over 5 yrs
100-50-100-50-100
Works no Matter Market Cond
FIRE at 35
Dream Life
Retire from Tutoring in 2+ yrs
Partial FIRE at 32+
Continued Momentum in Market
Global Decline
Demographic Collapse
Many Countries Decline
Deglobalization
Some Goods Scarcer
America Stable?
Self-Sufficient Economy
China Collapse
Parents Die Early
Inherit Half of Estate
House, Collection, Retire Funds
Still live at Parents' House
Life Insurance
Student Loans Paid off
In 1 year, On Time
$600 Mn Bill off Parents' Budget
Sell Assets to Pay off Now or Soon
Give $100/Mn to Parents to Pay Extra
Pay for a Vacation for Parents Instead?
Strategy Makes ~40% avg over 5 Yrs
Not FIRE by then
Wait Longer?
Due to Depression?
No Momentum in Market