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Union State of Belarus and Russia - Coggle Diagram
Union State of Belarus and Russia
unions between countries are very rare
in the modern era usually ending in a
civil war like Yemen an independence
referendum like in Montenegro we're
still keeping most of the sovereignty of
all the nations involved like an EU but
out of all of these attempted and
ongoing unions there's one that many
people have never heard of but it's
important to the geopolitics of Europe
and is pretty confusing that is the
union state or better known as the union
state of Russian Belarus so today let us
take a look at this confusing and
somewhat dysfunctional marriage between
these two countries and how it became
important both for the war in Ukraine
and geopolitics as a whole so with that
all being said let us begin
The Failed Attempt At Reforming The Soviet Union
to understand how this marriage began we
must start in the Soviet Union in July
in July 1990 the Soviet Union was
incomplete Free Fall the baltics
declared complete Independence and the
caucases and will Dove over were soon to
follow it became pretty apparent to the
core Soviet leadership and to even the
leaders and peoples of each Soviet
Republic that the end was near SO
meetings were held on how to keep the
Soviet Union going for the next couple
of years the leader of the Soviet Union
mihail Gorbachev posed a new Union that
would be a lot more equal with each
Republic controlling their resources
sovereignty Taxation and more but they
would still be under one nation with a
shared Army foreign policy and currency
this plan was officially called the new
Union treaty and from the start it was
rejected by some of the republics such
as the baltics Armenia Georgia and
Moldova but on the other hand some of
the other republics supported it such as
all of Central Asia Ukraine Azerbaijan
Russia and Belarus nothing would be
written into law yet but within the
Soviet Parliament the topic would be
mentioned a few times and a few
agreements would be made however by the
sum summer of 1991 this new Union was
showing that it probably won't work
Azerbaijan was in a war of Armenia so
they would have to be cut out of the
plan and Ukraine was in causing a debate
if they should join it but the biggest
and the final straw was the coup that
occurred in August on August 18 1991 a
part of the Soviet government including
the KGB and some of the republics were
really against liberalizing the USSR and
thought they had to save the USSR by all
means so they arrested Gorbachev and
sent the military to the streets of
Moscow they saw a four-day standoff
between forces and republics loyal to
Gorbachev and forces and republics loyal
to the KGB and the quote unquote
hardliners eventually the hardliner
stepped down and Gorbachev returned as
the Soviet leader because of all of this
every Soviet Republic would try to
distance themselves from the Soviet
Union Ukraine would just straight up
leave the Soviet Union as a whole and so
did nearly every other Republic over the
span of three months however there still
were some that wanted to make a new
Union but that was mainly just Belarus
Russia and Central Asia but even these
plans got scrapped for a better strategy
of making an organization of post-soviet
states that would collaborate
economically and militarily while Al
being a Geo political block this new
organization would be called The
Commonwealth of independent states where
the CIS signed into existence on
December 8th 1991 but even then there
were large amounts of people who still
wanted this new Union
foreign
Wanting To Make a New Union
okay so now that we established how
there was some attempt to make a new
Union but it massively failed now we get
into how Belarus and Russia came to
making their own Union later down the
line so let's start by briefly looking
at the 1991 to 1995 period in Russian
Belarus a period which is nearly
completely untalked about in the west
but gives all the context needed for how
the union state began in Russia the
country would be divided between those
who were Democratic and cooperating with
the West led by President Boris yelston
then there were those who were
anti-democratic wanting to go back to
Communism and were for fully reclaiming
the Soviet Union led by Gennady zuganov
but there were also many other internal
divides such as chechnya the parliament
versus presidential crisis of 1993 and
constant corruption and influence of
oligarchs that being said both sides
were for expanding and increasing
Russia's influence and possibly borders
over states that were formally in the
Soviet Union usually by calling for
closer ties with the CIS intervening
militarily in conflicts in the
post-soviet space and expanding or
controlling natural gas markets the
benefits for uniting with anyone were
pretty clear since Russia would get more
resources more customers for its large
gas supply and would be able to put more
of its military bases abroad on the
other hand Belarus was a country divided
upon three which is easiest to imagine
as a line scale on the far left was the
Belarusian popular front led by Zion
pasnik they were anti-communist
anti-russia and wanted to unify with the
West while solely recognizing the
Belarusian language and culture then
there were the moderates in the middle
led by president stanislav shishkiewicz
who were anti-communist but not
anti-russia didn't want to unify with
the west or Russia and wanted to
recognize both Belarusian and Russian as
official languages and lastly were the
Communists led by prime minister
vichyslav cabbage they were Communists
in everything but named since the party
was banned but they made trade
agreements with Russia wanted to be a
part of a new Union and wanted to
recognize both Belarusian and Russian as
official languages as a whole
three-fourths of the population sat
somewhere around here on the scale
between the moderates and the Communists
most were against Independence and
wanted to return to the Soviet Union but
wanted to keep a separate Belarusian
identity that being said Belarusian
Politics as a whole from 1991 to 1994
were complete mess with no one able to
be making a working economy constant
debates over everything and even
resorted to arresting each other over
corruption but as elections began in
June 1994 a military man and farmer
joined the race as the one to be in
between the moderates and the Communists
his name is Alexander lukashenka and he
would quickly gain most of the votes due
to him calling out the mess that was
ongoing for the last four years
lukashenko was and still today is not
really a communist but he was a very big
supporter of the Soviet Union and a part
of his campaign was claiming at the end
of the Soviet Union was a massive
tragedy and that he would make closer
ties with Russia to rectify it so in
conclusion by 1995 belarus's biggest
trading partner was Russia its natural
gas came nearly entirely from Russia its
population mostly spoke Russian as a
native language the population was four
and had been for creating a new Union
and now the president was claiming he
was going to build close ties with
Russia so now lukashenka just had to get
rid of the opposition and just proposed
a unification with Russia in the eyes of
Russia in 1995 Belarus was a state that
was nearly all Russian nearly all of its
energy half of its trade depended on
Russia and now its population and
president was for closer ties and even
unification of Russia so now the
belarusians just had to get past their
internal debates and just unify with
Russia already and so lukashenko had
proposed the marriage later that year
Creating The Union State
on February 21st 1995 lukashenka and
yelston would make a deal that made
Russian oil cheap with Russia getting a
large cut of belarus's state-run
industry and Military Intelligence this
gave Russia full permission to deploy
its military in Belarus and would
officially get rid of the border between
both countries a year later on April 2nd
1996 another series of deals were made
that eliminated any Belarusian debt to
Russia and promised a future shared
currency and a United Parliament this
gave Russia full permission to regulate
the Belarusian currency which was so
overly inflated that people were using
the Soviet rubles since it was more
stable and finally another year later on
April 2nd 1997 Belarus and Russia
officially entered a union with each
other both nations would be officially
separate but would collaborate in every
aspect of military and economy but
annexation was yet to happen further
Union agreements were planned but the
1998 Russian financial crisis put that
on hold as both Nations economies
suffered massively in 1999 talks resumed
and more agreements were made that
officiated this Union State however at
this time problems with the Union
started to come into view but first I
want to debunk a conspiracy theory okay
Caspain Report Is Wrong About The Union State
okay so this is going to be a side
tangent before going into the next
chapter so please just excuse me as I go
on so Caspian report is a channel that
focuses exclusively on geopolitics and
they released a video two years ago
called when Belarus tried to Annex
Russia this video's premise is saying
that lukashenka's goal with doing the
union was to take the presidency of the
union state and then somehow Annex
Russia and Belarus together and become
the leader the evidence for this is
built on a few arguments that seem solid
at first glance to begin yelson was
deeply unpopular from 1997 to 1999 with
his failed war in chechnya failing
Health possible corruption and being
blamed for the 1998 financial crisis
while supposedly at that same time
lukashenko was making connections with
Russian oligarchs and was touring
Russian villages in the Far East and a
possible quote-unquote presidential
campaign but there's a lot of problems
with these points and there's plenty
more impossibilities the first problem
is that lukashenka himself didn't even
want Belarus to disappear as it was his
main supporter base the second problem
is that lukashenka didn't even have that
much support from Russian oligarchs he
actually accused him of selling this
country out a few years later in 2003.
the third problem is that lukashenko was
not even that popular in Russia in the
1990s people knew about his complete
Crackdown on opposition and Assumption
of power in 1996 and that he was
completely anti-western wanting to
recreate the Soviet Union and expelling
Western diplomats numerous Russian news
stations were actually raided or shut
down by lukashenka in 1996 and 1997
including orrt which was one of the
biggest in Russia this combined with
some actual disdain between lukashenka
and yelson by 1998 and the fact that the
quote-unquote president of the Union
State title doesn't even exist finally
kills this argument of lukashenka
attempting to take ultimate power so
with that being said let us get into
some of the deep problems that created
this dysfunctional marriage
Deep Problems With The Union State
for lukashenka himself he was hesitant
to go further with this Union since as
early as February 1997 there were large
protests against the union state
lukashenko would send the police over
and over again to shut down these
protests but two years later on October
17 1999 another much bigger protest
would occur called the freedom March
this one had at least 25 000 people and
resulted in some of the heaviest clashes
between protesters and the police since
lukashenka's complete power Takeover in
it would only last for a single
day with lukashenka sending an interior
Ministry forces to end the protest so if
there's anything to take away from this
video it's that lukashenka will do
anything to prevent a possible popular
Uprising and this includes having to
stop moving forward and away from a
complete Union with Russia for Russia in
December 1999 yelson stepped down and
gave the presidency to Vladimir Putin
Putin did not really care for going any
further with the union and he would go
as far to say in 2002 that it made as
much sense and I quote to unite flies
and meatballs Hoon would also say with
in that same meeting that if anything
Belarus should be annexed as either one
giant Province or six smaller provinces
but why would he say these things well
the real problems with the union state
is that Russia is at least 15 times
bigger than Belarusian population 30
times bigger in GDP has a military that
is 10 times bigger in size and is over
82 times as big in land mass and
geopolitically Russia has real
connections with India China Syria and
more while Belarus only has connections
with States the USA hates like Libya
Venezuela and Iran so honestly why would
Putin and the Russian government as a
whole claim Russia as equal in a union
to a nation that is far far less in
power is isolated internationally and
pretty much depends on Russia for its
trade and energy but outside of that
Belarus and Russia's economy was
actually quite different even back then
see Russia's economy in 1999 was half
state run and half private Belarus is at
the time was 85 percent state-run and 15
percent private today the numbers are at
similar odds the Russian economy today
is still split 50 50 give or take either
way but the Belarusian economy is now at
least 70 percent state-run with 30
percent being private though some have
argued that belarus's economy is 90 to
100 state-run these are issues that make
it very hard to organize and combine an
economy that plus the complete failure
of the Belarusian Ruble in the 90s are
probably why they never had a shared
currency it's just a really unequal
marriage and that is the reason why
things haven't really gone forward with
the union state and in fact it actually
has led to disputes between both sides
Trade Disputes And Invasion Routes
since 2002 there have been a few
disputes between Russia and Belarus
mostly over energy and trade in 2004 and
2007 Belarus had a dispute with gazprom
the biggest Russian gas company and the
one in the center of the Russian EU gas
debate this resulted in a gas problem
shutting down gas to Belarus which as
you can imagine the country heavily
relied upon so they stood down and the
Belarusian government sold half of its
biggest natural gas company to gasprom
in 2009 there would be another major
dispute as lukashenka refused to
recognize the russian-backed separatist
states of abkhazia in South Osteria so
Russia just put a complete ban on
Belarusian milk exports which crippled
the Belarusian dairy industry two weeks
later it was taken off but the message
was very clear this led to Belarus and
Russia actually now having border guards
again for checking trucks and goods and
since 2009 there has been numerous other
small incidents in power plays by the
Russian government to the Belarusian
government but there has been some on
the ground cooperation as of recent in
2020 Bell Belarus had its biggest
protests ever against lukashenka and
Russia watched closely for a few months
but it became apparent that there had to
be something done or there could be more
issues so using the Clauses made from
the union state Russia would at least
under the table support Belarus the
Russian government would send members of
the media Network Russia Today to take
over Belarusian TV stations that were
abandoned in protest and most likely
sent FSB units to work with the
Belarusian KGB and breaking up and
arresting the leaders of the protest and
most recently Russia with Clauses and
Union State agreements used Belarus as
the staging ground and Invasion Source
into Ukraine this has been met with fear
in questions if all of Belarus will be
used as a staging ground or even if
Belarus itself will join the war both of
which I think are really outside of the
scope of this video but how about
expansion of the union state and what
role does it have in geopolitics
Possible Expansion Of The Union State
for the expansion of the union state
let's just go through all of the former
Soviet republics the baltics Georgia
Ukraine and Azerbaijan have shown zero
interest in joining the union due to
reasons of national identity and
sovereignty moldova's third President
Vladimir varonin which you can find more
about in my video about moldova's recent
history and role in geopolitics did
actually show interest in joining the
union state but these talks broke down
in 2002 due to not making an agreement
with Russia over transnation Armenia
hasn't shown any interest and is
involved in a near-constant war with
Azerbaijan turkmenison became fully
neutral in 1995 not joining any
geopolitical Bloc and just became an
isolationist dictatorship Uzbekistan
also hasn't shown any interest but since
2004 has shifted away from being solely
in Russian influence Tajikistan is
basically already in Russian control but
due to a huge Civil War in the 90s and
looming threat of another one they're
not a good candidate Kyrgyzstan did have
some calls to join it but Kyrgyzstan has
had revolutions every few years and is
already in Russian influence Kazakhstan
has shown interest since 1994 and
actually has a trade Union with Russia
and Belarus since 2010 but in the 2000s
it started to shift away from just being
under Russian influence and now just
sits comfortably between Russian and
Western Investments then there is the
russian-backed separatist states of
transnistra navorrosia South osettia and
abkazia which of course have shown some
interest but Russia hasn't really taken
it seriously in letting them in and
lastly there was the Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia which in 1999 actually did
pass a piece of legislation to join but
Russia and Belarus never took it
seriously and that is pretty much it in
terms of Nations that could actually be
invited and the reality is is that it
will probably just stay between Belarus
and Russia so let's get into the Final
Chapter conclusion on its place in
geopolitics
The Union State's Role In Geopolitics Today
the union state is probably one of the
weirdest blocks on the world stage it
was a field project that had a clear
goal and even had a possible way of
getting there but the reality was that
neither state was up for it Belarus and
lukashenko wanted to be a part of the
Soviet Union again but wanted to also be
a nation with equal power to whoever
they wanted to unify with Russia and
Putin would be glad to have Belarus once
again a part of its territory but there
is zero reason to go down the path of
sharing equal power with Phoenician that
is at least 15th of its everything the
result of these failed Ambitions and
failed alignment is a geopolitical
entity that serves no real purpose other
than just propaganda a clear Line in the
Sand and a further extension of Russia's
military I highly doubt anything more
will come of the union state there has
been some discussions of Russia annexing
Belarus but but that's more based on the
history and future of lukashenka than
anything relating to the union state
anyways let me know what you think thank
you so much for watching if you're new
to the channel and like videos like this
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day and goodbye