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Uncertainty The only certainty in life is uncertainty itself., Decision…
Uncertainty
The only certainty in life is uncertainty itself.
Rational decision
Importance
Long-term perspective
Accountability
Efficiency
Problem-solving
Accountability
Conflict resolution
:
Gather information
Identify the problem or decision to be made
Identify alternatives
Evaluate alternatives
Make a choice
Implement the decision
Monitor and evaluate
Learn and adapt
Chaos Theory
Chaos theory states that small changes in initial conditions can lead to significantly different outcomes in complex, nonlinear systems.
Applications
Run tests
forecast models
Andrey Markov
mathematical system that undergoes transitions in state space
Markov Chain
Chaos theory states that small changes in initial conditions can lead to significantly different outcomes in complex, nonlinear systems
Applications
Genetics and Molecular Biology
Weather and Climate Modeling
Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
Internet and Social Networks
Examples
Web page ranking
Snake ladders
Predicting traffic ranking
Hidden Markov Model
A Hidden Markov Model is a statistical model that represents a system with hidden states and observable outputs, where the current state depends only on the previous state and emits an output based on its probability distribution
Speech processing
Population genetic drift
DNA / Genome sequencing
Page ranking on Google
Stochastic process
A stochastic process is a mathematical model that describes the evolution of a system over time, where the future values of the process are uncertain and are determined by random variables
Brownian Motion
Bernoulli Process
Random Walk
Uncertainty
Uncertainty refers to a lack of precise knowledge or predictability about the outcome of a particular event or the state of a system
A way to represent uncertainty in a formal language.
A semantic justification of the nature and source of the doubt
An effective memory control method for managing uncertainty
Several inference principles that lead to ambiguous conclusions
Decision theory
Decision theory = probability theory + utility theory
Probability theory
Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that quantifies uncertainty and provides a framework for analyzing the likelihood of events or outcomes based on mathematical principles and reasoning.
Decision making
steps