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Referendums - Coggle Diagram
Referendums
Referendums in the UK
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1997 - Scotland - Should there be a Scottish Parliament? - 74.3% yes - 25.7% no - 60.4% turnout
1997 - Scotland - With tax varying powers? - 63.5% yes - 36.5% no - 60.4% turnout
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1998 - Greater London - Should there be a London mayor and London Assembly? - 72% yes - 28% no - 34% turnout
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2004 - Northeast England - Should there be a regional assembly for the Northeast? - 22% yes - 78% no - 48% turnout
2011 - Wales - Should the Welsh Assembly have primary legislative powers? - 63.5% yes - 36.5% no - 35.6% turnout
2011 - UK - Should the alternative vote replace FPTP for elections to the House of Commons? - 32.1% yes - 67.9% no - 42.2% turnout
2014 - Scotland - Should Scotland become an independent country? - 44.7% yes - 55.3% no - 84.6% turnout
2016 - UK - Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU? - 51.9% leave - 48.1% remain - 72.2% turnout
- national votes (e.g. 1998 Good Friday Agreement) tend to have higher turnouts, also as impacts everyone & historical significance
- massive defeat for north-eastern regional assembly in 2004 due to lack of demand for devolved powers
- 2011 referendum became a Lib Dem vote, also shows people do not care a lot or want change
- 1997-2010, more referendums due to New Labour wanting. this, constitutional changes
- government can influence & push a narrative, push/hide media coverage e.g. 2011 UK
- 2016 can be seen as undemocratic as there is a small difference between leave & remain (marginal victory), people given misinformation, under 18s not allowed to vote, tyranny of the majority
Why hold a referendum?
- resolve party dispute
- see public opinion
- issues of national significance
- may not be able to get through parliament without it
- elevate public pressure
- distraction
- consolidation
- if an authority wants to increase council tax or have a neighbourhood plans for housing developments, they must hold a referendum
- these changes introduced by Brentwood and Ongar MP Eric Pickles
- implemented Localism Act, many local elections held due to him
- EU referendum brought attention to referendums & showed distinct party divides, referendums may not be held for a while as feelings of dividing people
2014 Scottish Independence Referendum:
Why held?
- happened as the SNP, who campaign for Scotland to be independent, won a majority at the last Scottish Parliament election
Issues during the referendum campaign:
- Yes Scotland was supported by SNP
- Better Together (supported by Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems) was criticised for a negative campaign focused on the dangers of independence
Results including turnout / impact:
- success in terms of political participation and education
- turnout was very high (84.5%) and 16- and 17-year-olds were permitted to vote
- 55.3% said ‘no’ to independence while 1.6 million (44.7%) supported
- result did not settle the issue of Scottish independence and the SNP supports a second vote, particularly due to the 2016 EU referendum
2016 UK EU Membership Referendum:
Why held?
- EU membership had long been a topic of debate in the UK
- May 2015, following Conservative Party manifesto pledge, legal basis for the EU referendum was established through the European Union Referendum Act 2015
- rise of UKIP pressure on Cameron to call a referendum
- Britain Stronger in Europe became the official group campaigning for the UK to remain , endorsed by PM Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne
- Vote Leave official group campaigning for the UK to leave, fronted by Conservative MPs Boris Johnson and Michael Gove along with Labour MP Gisela Stuart
- Immediately after result, financial markets reacted negatively worldwide, and Cameron announced resignation as PM and Conservative Party leader, having campaigned unsuccessfully to remain
Issues during the referendum campaign:
- Leave campaigners said leaving would create more jobs, remain said millions of jobs would be lost; lack of definitive information
- 'The money saved from leaving the EU will result in the NHS getting £350m a week', another false claim
- 19 March 2019, Vote Leave fined £40,000 for sending 196,154 unsolicited electronic messages to people who had not given consent for their contact details to be used for these purposes
- many fines for spending returns being failed in some way
- May 2018, the Electoral Commission gave Leave.EU the maximum available fine of £20,000 for unlawfully overspending
Results including turnout / impact:
- first time a national referendum result had gone against the preferred option of the UK gov
- more than 100 reports of racist abuse and hate crime in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, with many citing the plan to leave the EU
- many petitioned for a second referendum
- 24 June 2016, number of applications from the UK for Irish passports had increased significantly
- referendum criticised for not granting people younger than 18 a vote
Disadvantages
are a challenge to parliamentary sovereignty, voters elect representatives to take decisions on their behalf, referendums undermine representative democracy - electors lack experience on complicated issues e.g. if to join the Euro
Govs can choose whether or not they hold a referendum, can do so for their own political purposes e.g. 1975 & 2016 on Europe aim to settle party divisions (but, Blair did not call referendum in 2007 Lisbon Treaty, leading to calls for greater regulation of circumstances when they can be called)
if arguments not explained clearly, turnout may be low (e.g. 2011 UK referendum), arguments may also be distorted (e.g. 2016 EU referendum the electoral commission said leaders on both side distorted arguments & say need greater regulation)
referendums generally have a low turn-out, reduces their legitimacy (e.g. 1998 Greater London referendum, 2011 UK referendum, 2004 North-East referendum)
outcome of referendums have nothing to do with actual issues that is being voted on e.g. 2011 AV referendum was in large part a protest vote against unpopularity of Lib Dems
government can absolve itself if any responsibility, making themselves less accountable
referendums provide a 'snapshot' of public opinion at one time, may not be the most reliable method of choosing a policy direction
Advantages
referendums can raise public awareness, Scottish referendum gave people the opportunity to raise a wide range of issues related to independence
Scottish independence referendum gave rise to numerous important issues e.g. impact of independence on economy, future of nuclear deterrent & Scotland's relationship with the EU
allows a single-issue to be decided in isolation, an unambiguous decision can be given, some issues cut across party lines and thus general election cannot decide this issue
directly involve the electorate in decision-making, electorate has right to be consulted in democracy, trust in politicians is low and some questions are too important to be left to them alone
demonstrate clear public support for change (legitimacy), settling arguments & entrenching reform; decision doesnt have to be irreversible but to do so would necessitate another major public debate
a check on elective dictatorship (dominance of majority party in the House of Commons), referendums between general elections gives people the opportunity to have their say more frequently & hold gov accountable
conduct of referendums is subject to supervision by the independent Electoral Commission (2000), reduces opportunity of a skewed result as it limits the expenditure both sides may spend on the campaign and looks at working of the referendum question
Local referendums
- an increase in the amount of referendums held at local levels in recent years as well, although they have been far less publicised than national referendums
Directly elected mayors:
- referendums are also held to decide whether a town or city will be run by directly elected mayors
- by 2016, 52 referendums held to decide if to move to the directly elected mayor model (only 16 approved)
- referendums can be triggered by central government, the local authority or a petition by local citizens
- 2012, 12 of England's largest cities held referendum's on whether to move to directly-elected mayors; only Bristol voted yes, with Doncaster voting to retain their mayor
Congestion charges:
- also referendums to decide on whether to introduce congestion charges
- two cities, Edinburgh and Manchester held referendums on this issue in 2005 and 2008 (both cases, approx 75% of voters rejected the changes and they were dropped)
Local authorities:
- If a local authority seeks to increase council tax above a threshold above that set by central government, it must hold a referendum to approve its proposals
- 2011 Localism Act requires local authorities to hold referendums on neighbourhood plans for housing developments
- by the end of 2015, 126 such referendums were held and approved, with an average turnout of 33%
- changes introduced by MP Eric Pickles
Local issues:
- The Local Government Act 1972 allows voters to request that a parish council holds an advisory referendum on a local issue
- regulations for such referendums were tightened when it emerged that the system was being used to hold referendums on issues that were not local matters (e.g. EU treaties)
National referendums
Divisions:
- before 1975 referendums almost unknown in UK political system
- NI referendums in 1973 boycotted by nationalists and lacked legitimacy
- 97 referendum on UK should remain member of the European Community, has joined in 1973; Harold Wilson called election to solve long-running internal Labour Party disputes within his party over membership (hard-left elements opposed)
- 2016, Cameron called a referendum to heal party divisions over EU membership (more right-wing elements of the Conservative Party opposed EU)
Constitutional changes:
- landslide Labour victory in 1997 saw a series of ground-breaking constitutional changes, required a mandate from the people in the form of a referendum
- powers devolved from Westminster to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, Greater London Assembly and London mayor was also created
- referendum not always necessary for constitutional changes
- The 2005 Constitutional Reform Act led to the establishment of a Supreme Court and the 1999 House of Lords Reform Act, abolishing hereditary peers, did not require referendums
Compromises:
- sometimes political parties are forced to concede ground on changes they would like to see
- Conservative Party coalition with the Lib Dem in 2010 after failing to secure a majority, agreed to hold a referendum on replacing FPTP with AV and agreed to increase the number of referendums that would be held to decide local matters
Political pressure:
- sometimes there is strong political pressure for a movement
- 2014, Scottish independence referendum; Alex Salmond and the SNP's won the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections and increased the calls for an in-out referendum on Scottish independence
- rise of UKIP increased pressure on David Cameron to call an in-out referendum on UK membership of the EU
- despite this pressure, governments are unlikely to hold referendums owing to public pressure unless they think they can win
- many politicians and citizens criticised Cameron's decision to hold both the EU and Scottish referendum, saying it was a calculated short-term decision to prolong his political career rather than a long-term decision for the UK.
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What is a referendum?
Definition: a general vote by the electorate on a single political question which has been referred to them for a direct decision
- a single-issue vote often given to produce a "yes" or "no" outcome