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CHAPTER 10 - Coggle Diagram
CHAPTER 10
THE EXPERT PROBLEM, OR THE TRAGEDY OF THE EMPTY SUIT
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Hearding like cattle
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Applying statistical physics' methods to economic variables and using empirical methods to observe the data is a way closer to truth opposite to Mediocristan mathematics that uses bell curve and forecasts
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I was "amost" right
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Its is better to be a "fox" and to await judgment and to keep an open mind, because once we have an opinion it is hard to let it go, even with new data at hand
Reality? What for?
There is a problem with prediction, economists ahev shown that they have an inability to predict, even the most complex methods dont really work
On the main title
Always a good idea to question error rate of the expert. Instead of questioning his procedure, question his confidence
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"OTHER THAN THAT", IT WAS OKAY"
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On the main title
Plans have systematic errors, we cant predict everything.
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CONCLUSIONS
We need to remember, though counterintuitive, scalability of randomness
Some variables are related to the bell curve, but the ones from Extremistan, are in an opposite effect
Example with aging and waiting for an answer-letter (human projects and ventures) -- each day brings you closer to death but further from receiving the answer