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POWER and DEVELOPMENT in GLOBAL POLITICS, Kevin Bloor, 2022. :link: -…

- - - - Population/territory
      - Resource Endowment
      - Economic Capability
      - Political Stability
      - Military Strength
    - - The maintenance of order and stability within the anarchic system requires some degree of intervention from great powers.
    - - Those countries and organisations that may be classed as great powers fluctuate over time. In recent years, China has made impressive strides in both its economic and military standing. This has led some to predict that China will eventually be classed as a superpower, and that the distribution of power within international relations will gravitate towards bipolarity.
        
        Since the mid-nineties, there have been a number of proposals for an informal special relationship between the US and China, primarily upon an economic basis.
        
        G2
    - - The academic Joshua Baron (2013) argues that the main reason for this welcome trend centres upon the primacy of American military power.
      - Secondly, there is a degree of consensus (diplomacy) among great powers that military force is no longer an effective tool for resolving disputes.
  - - - In a system characterised by unipolarity, only one state, by definition, is classed as a superpower.
        
        In the post-Cold War era, the US experienced what became known as ‘the unipolar moment’. The United States no longer had to contain the spread of communism. Given the realities of the new world order, Samuel Huntington (1999, 36) observed that the United States was now the only country ‘with pre-eminence in every domain of power…with the reach and capabilities to promote its interests in virtually every part of the world.’
        
        To underline his point, in 1999 the French Foreign Minister, Hubert Verdine, memorably described the US as a ‘hyper-power’, due to its dominance within international relations.
      - Under a bipolar system, there are two superpowers in existence.
      - Samuel Huntington: a 'uni-multipolar system'
        
        In a uni-multipolar system, there are a number of emerging powers.
        
        This is most noticeable within the economic realm with China likely to overtake the US on the basis of current economic trends. China may also utilise its military capacity in order to secure a geostrategic advantage in the South China Sea. Having said this, China still lacks the necessary level of soft power comparable to a truly global superpower.
        
        The military and political resources held by Russia also presents some counter-balance to American hegemony. The Russian Federation has a military presence within the Middle East that limits the ability of the United States to impose its own particular agenda in the region (notably in its relations with Iran and Syria). Having said this, the Russian Federation is nowhere close to the geopolitical status of the former Soviet Union. In the Global Firepower ranking to determine a nation’s Power Index, Russia is ranked a distant second to the United States (Global Fire Power 2021).
        
        In this uni-multipolar system, another emerging superpower to consider is the European Union. When conventional wisdom gravitates towards military capacity, it is problematic to classify the EU in this manner. However, the soft power of the organisation is highly impressive. It is the world’s largest single market and has diplomatic representation at the top table of global governance. The civilian power of the EU demands a re-examination of traditional realist conceptions of power within the academic field.
        
        The term ‘potential superpower’ offers a useful conceptual toolkit to comprehend contemporary international relations. In the economic realm, the emerging powers of the BRICS could be classed in such a manner. This is likely to have implications for the future distribution of power within international relations. For instance, relations between Washington and Beijing are likely to have considerable economic and political consequences. Given the economic might of the two nations, a trade war between Washington and Beijing would have a devastating impact upon the global economy.
        
        The European Union may also be described as a potential superpower, particularly if it continues to enhance its capacity within the realm of hard power. The process of European integration has already created a Common Foreign and Security Policy. In terms of its defence capacity, the EU can also mobilise a multi-national battlegroup. Having said all this, forecasting future superpowers will always prove a hostage to fortune.
    - - Since the collapse of the USSR, the US has emerged as the world’s only military superpower. As a hegemonic power, even the symbolism of its diplomatic actions can have major repercussions in various hotspots of the world.
        
        For instance, Donald Trump’s surprise decision to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem empowered the Israeli state. In addition, his description of Jerusalem as the ‘undivided capital of Israel’ is of a magnitude that no other state could reasonably command.
    - - conduct a global strategy including the possibility of destroying the world;
      - command vast economic potential and influence;
      - and present a universal ideology.
  - - - Alongside a burgeoning economy, there are other dimensions of state power that determine a country’s status as an emerging power. These include geography, population, resources, military capacity, diplomacy and national identity. Only a great power (or a superpower) can be said to hold all seven dimensions of state power.
        
        On this basis, it is clear that South Africa can only be an emerging power because of its decision to abandon its nuclear weapons programme. In addition, India is classed as an emerging power due to social underdevelopment amongst its population. Unlike great powers, it still has a relatively high rate of illiteracy and malnutrition (Panda et al. 2020).
        
        MINTs (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey)
        
        There are a number of emerging powers who undoubtedly have the potential to follow the same trajectory as the European Union. According to the political scientist David Robinson (2011), India is now a great power. For instance, India has the second largest army in the world and is the second most populous country in the world. In terms of a qualitative measurement, the State Power Index for 2017 ranked India, underlined by its nuclear capacity and ambitions, above both France and the United Kingdom. However, according to the Global Diplomacy Index (Lowy Institute 2019) India still sits behind countries such as Turkey and Spain, ranking at twelfth globally.
        
        In the case of Brazil, it could be argued that it will eventually emerge as a great power with an important position in terms of its sphere of influence. As the leading regional power of South America, Brazil’s strength lies in its military capacity and a rapidly expanding economy. It is perhaps worth noting here that Brazil is also a member of the G4, which campaigns for a permanent seat on the UNSC (alongside India, Japan and Germany). This is clearly indicative of how the country’s policymakers perceive Brazil’s relative power.
        
        When considering a typology of states, it is important to note that overlaps are commonplace. For instance, China is rightly referred to as an emerging superpower based upon its economic might. Confusingly, it is sometimes classed as a great power or superpower. Equally, the Russian Federation emerged as the successor state to a superpower (the Soviet Union). Whilst Russia is often called a great power, it is also classed as an emerging power as part of the BRICS. It could also be argued that Russia is actually re-emerging as a global force.
- - - - On the basis of nominal GDP, the US is still the world’s largest economy. However, in terms of purchasing power parity the US has already lost out to China.
      - Multipolar global economy: the five countries that make up the BRICS have established the New Development Bank to rival the World Bank (which they claim is biased towards Washington). China is also flexing its economic muscles via the ‘Belt and Road initiative’ which involves infrastructure development and investments in nearly 70 countries. China has also engaged in currency manipulation and protectionism despite repeated complaints from the United States.
      - In the contemporary world order, policymakers in Washington have to accept that they cannot dictate the rules of the game. Despite its economic might, the United States must negotiate with other actors and accept the constraints of complex interdependence.
    - - Finally, in terms of soft power, the United States still has an international reach. It provides a considerable amount of international aid in various regions and has the most diplomatic missions of any country in the world. Yet having said this, quantitative measures do not in themselves mean that the world order is necessarily dominated by the US.
        
        Even with its considerable military arsenal, the United States has not always managed to translate hard power into a satisfactory outcome.
    - - The US has personnel in dozens of countries and a naval and air capability that can be deployed to multiple theatres of conflict.
        
        Even with its considerable military arsenal, the United States has not always managed to translate hard power into a satisfactory outcome.