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Theory of Change Smackdown w/ Theo - Coggle Diagram
Theory of Change Smackdown w/ Theo
Agree on
Want a new paradigm (e.g. that is post-capitalist or teal)
That paradigm is onto-social ie. cultural part (views and values and material part
A transformation in both material systems (economy) and cultural systems (ontology) (Aside: many of the important institutions are kind of both ...)
The next paradigm looks like this ...
Rufus contention: Life Itself work is "better" (more important, higher marginal return) than e.g. Demos Helsinki (who are also amazing btw!)
Theo's marginal contribution is greater at something like Life Itself than at Demos ...
Theo claim: given complexity of response required can't know marginal contribution - let a thousand flowers bloom is best approach -> go where your heart calls (within reason)
But wait ... there seem many more Demos' in the world than Life Itself - the distribution of interest / resources does seem randomly distribution across areas ...
In fact, Demos is largely coupled to and embedded the mainstream paradigm - look at the tenders they do on crypto ...
Your "heart" is shaped by an environment and allowing everyone to just to follow their heart won't lead to effective randomization (leave aside randomization might not be the right strategy)
Also: Theo's career development should factor into equation
Sure, though if there was a clear answer to the above e.g. that Life Itself path is better than surely this would be temporary: you'd gain X skills, resources and then re-focus again on the priority ...
Question
Both onto and economic shifts needed, and which is more important (marginally)?
Rufus claims onto ...
Can you do culture first?
Theo: no. You need material experience to create amenable environments for culture shift (e.g. black panther food programmes)
Hard to get people out of individualism when all the material circumstances in their lives press them in that direction. Especially for "ordinary" people whom we'll need on side
What are the pathways to that next paradigm?
Which have the great marginal return (for a given set of talents)?
🚩 Causal linkage of getting people together to do inner work collectively leading to micro-ecosystems is not sufficiently specified
People have pressing material issues so they won't pay attention to this "touchy-feely stuff"
But what about protestanism
Hey, people won't individualistic then and not so materially focused and so open to this ... (whereas not today)
Capitalism has such a pull people cannot escape its grasp (stronger than catholicism in the reformation)
❌ protestanism was of same variety as catholocism so it was a simple meme to adopt ... [why work is the new religion]. This new meme won't be because it is so different from dominant culture.
✅ People's meaning doesn't come from religion anymore, it comes from their work, their circumstances etc
Re vanguard - it's notoriously hard to get well-off people to make real sacrifice at the level (i think) required, off their own back without wider shifts, pressures or value proposiitions
❌ obviously not so, we are talking a minority of the vanguard, of course but the very thing the rich lack is meaning and purpose which creating a new paradigm brings ...
So many middle-class progressive liberals who lack meaning but won't put money where their mouth is re action, material sacrifice
Hey, people are adopting major new worldviews e.g. caring about animals, about environment etc - cf inglehart, our own experience ...
❌ Veganism most plausible and most of this shift comes from environmental (i.e. material) concern
not
expansion of the moral circle
i.e. the culture change comes from material conditions
🚩 How will that then scale ...?
Things can seem very quiet a while and then blow up ... (imagine being in 1480 - all previous protestant like stuff have been wiped out. Feudalistic catholicism seems unassailable, yet 40y later look what happens)
The bet ...
How will degrowth happen?
Rufus ToC
Mix of self-interest for future, wellbeing comes from sources other than consumption, care for environment, ... [onto shifts] amongst a
vanguard
this leads a greater number to realize wellbeing comes from other sources
More supporters
Etc
Theo ToC: degrowth grows in discourse (shifting overton window), we give people experiences of "degrowth life", they stop consuming less under these terms THEN maybe undergo full onto shift to immaterialism
If you can find a way for them to get food w/o going to s
* supermarket that would be gateway to
talking to them about...and then** them choosing a different paradigm
Very hard to get a better supermarket (already very efficient)
We're not trying to build better supermarkets per se
even if you got that, it won't inspire people (e.g. working hours have change a lot thanks to campaigns)
Theo steel-manning Rufus: get people together and have tham have a some amazing psycho-spiritual experience and then they get the new paradigm
No, my contention is we need a movement
But for that movement ot sustain and to keep a true essence (that is needed) it needs that new culture
So start with core groups who can hold and develop culture
Theo: an ideology is a key stuff ...