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Block 18: Future Thinking - Coggle Diagram
Block 18: Future Thinking
VUCA
Managing in a VUCA World:
Volatility:
Changes are frequent and unpredictable, making it difficult for managers to make confident decisions. For example, sudden market shifts or technological disruptions can upend business strategies.
Uncertainty:
The future is hard to predict, and managers often lack the information needed to make informed decisions. This can lead to anxiety among employees who look to leaders for guidance.
Complexity
: Multiple interconnected factors make decision-making challenging. For example, global supply chains are highly complex, and disruptions in one part of the world can have ripple effects elsewhere.
Ambiguity:
Situations are often open to interpretation, and conflicting information can make it hard to determine the best course of action. For example, the debate over remote work’s effectiveness is ongoing, with research supporting both sides.
Impact on Teams: VUCA environments can cause anxiety, reduce motivation, and disrupt planned changes. Managers must address these challenges by fostering resilience and adaptability in their teams
Is the Scope and Speed of Change Increasing?:
Henry Mintzberg’s blog post challenges the notion that change is accelerating, pointing out that many aspects of life (e.g., buttoning shirts, driving cars) have remained relatively unchanged for decades.
However, in the business world, the pace of technological and societal change has accelerated, particularly in the last 20 years. Managers must balance the need for continuity with the ability to adapt to rapid changes.
Spotting Trends
Spotting Trends
Managers need to identify trends that may impact their business in the future. PESTEL analysis is a useful tool for this, but it can be challenging to determine which factors are most relevant.
The goal is to anticipate future scenarios rather than reacting to them after the fact. This requires managers to think critically about how trends, opportunities, and threats might evolve.
3D Printing Activity:
Scenario: Imagine a future where 3D printing is widely available, allowing people to print household goods, car parts, and other items at home.
Activity: Students are asked to consider how a delivery company might adapt to this scenario. For example, the company could invest in high-quality 3D printers for large items or partner with customers to deliver raw materials for 3D printing.
Feedback: Possible strategies include reviewing product lines to identify items that could be replaced by 3D printing, investing in new technologies like drones, and forming partnerships with customers.
Megatrends:
Definition: Megatrends are large-scale forces that shape the future, such as technological advancements, demographic shifts, and environmental changes.
Examples:
Decarbonization: Companies must reduce their carbon footprint and prepare for the impacts of climate change.
Technonomic Cold War: The competition for technological dominance between countries and companies, leading to increased cybersecurity risks.
Behavioral Economy: The use of data to influence consumer behavior, such as through nudging or personalized marketing.
Synthetic Media: The rise of deepfakes and manipulated media, which can spread misinformation and damage reputations.
Future of Thinking: The impact of technology on critical thinking and attention spans, particularly among younger generations.
Work and Life Unbounded: The blurring of boundaries between work and personal life, accelerated by remote work and digital communication.
Microbiomes: The use of microbes to address challenges like climate change and health issues.
Synthetic Biology: The engineering of biological systems to create new products and solutions, such as personalized medicine or sustainable food production.
Conclusion:
Managers should stay informed about global trends and adapt their strategies to align with these forces. The key is to focus on the broader forces of technology, globalization, demographics, and the environment, rather than fixating on specific megatrends.
How Will You Keep Up To Date?
Discussion:
Staying informed about trends and megatrends is crucial for managers. Dr. Katie Best shares her personal methods, such as listening to news podcasts, reading HBR, and exploring academic research.
Students are encouraged to develop their own strategies for staying informed, such as subscribing to industry newsletters, attending webinars, or following thought leaders on social media.
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning:
Scenario planning involves creating multiple plausible futures and developing strategies that are robust across different scenarios.
Process:
Invite the Right People:
Include participants with diverse perspectives and expertise.
Identify Key Factors: Use tools like PESTEL or Porter’s Five Forces to identify factors that could shape the future.
Imagine Different Futures: Create scenarios that push the boundaries of plausibility, such as a world with severe water shortages or a cure for obesity.
Inhabit Those Futures: Use immersive techniques, such as creating fictional newspaper articles or videos, to explore how the scenarios might play out.
Isolate Strategies: Identify strategies that work across multiple scenarios, such as investing in renewable energy or diversifying supply chains.
Implement Strategies: Develop formal plans to implement the chosen strategies.
Ingrain the Process: Make scenario planning a regular part of the organization’s strategic process.
Use of Scenario Planning:
Scenario planning is used by governments, nonprofits, and businesses to prepare for uncertain futures. For example, the US Coast Guard used scenario planning to prepare for the mass evacuation of Manhattan during 9/11.
The process helps managers avoid relying on a single worldview and encourages them to consider a range of possibilities.
Conclusion:
Scenario planning helps managers prepare for a range of future possibilities and adapt to large-scale changes. It encourages a broad perspective and helps organizations stay resilient in the face of uncertainty.