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4.2 Demographic Transition - Coggle Diagram
4.2 Demographic Transition
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM):
A model that describes population change over time in terms of birthrates, death rates, and total population.
Based on the experience of developed countries but also applied to developing countries.
Comprised of five stages.
Stages of the DTM:
Stage 1:
Characteristics:
High birth rates and high death rates, fluctuate due to disease, famine and poor living conditions.
Population growth is minimal or stagnant.
Examples:
Pre-indusrial societies.
While there are no longer any countries still in this stage some examples include indigenous tribes in parts of Brazil, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Reasons:
Lack of medical knowledge, poor sanitation, substance economy.
Stage 2:
Characteristics:
High birth rate and high death rate fluctuate due to disease, famine and poor living conditions. However as a whole death rate is declining.
Population growth is minimal but increasing in rate.
Reasons:
Lack of medical knowledge, poor sanitation, substance economy.
However these reasons are slowly declining.
Examples:
Stage 2 still describes pre-industrial societies.
For example Afghanistan, Ghana and Bangladesh.
Stage 3:
Characteristics:
Birth rates begin to decline due to changes in social attitudes, access to contraception, and improved education (especially for women).
Death rates continue to decline, but at a slower pace.
Population growth slows.
Examples:
Many of these countries are post-Industrialsation or going through industrialsation. This means a massive increase in urbanisation.
For example Mexico, India and South Africa.
Reasons:
Urbanisation, industrialisation and slowly increasing living standards.
Stage 4:
Characteristics:
Low birth rates and low death rates, leading to stable or slow population growth.
Population size may fluctuate slightly due to economic or cultural factors.
Examples:
USA, UK, China and France.
Reasons:
Advanced healthcare, widespread use of contraception, cultural shifts toward smaller families.
Stage 5:
Characteristics:
Birth rates fall below death rates, resulting in natural population decline.
Ageing population becomes prominent.
Examples:
Japan and Italy.
Reasons:
Career-focused lifestyles, higher cost of living and relcutance to have larger families.
Strengths of the DTM:
Provides a general framework to understand population change over time and how it relates to the development of a country.
Applicable to many countries, with room for variation.
Highlights the role of industrialisation and development in population dynamics.
The DTM can be used to predict what will happen to developing countries in the lower stages.
Limitations of the DTM:
Eurocentric:
The DTM is based on the historical experiences of Europe and may not fully apply to the rest of the world.
Doesn't account for:
Government Policies
For example China's One child policy.
Cultural and religious influences.
Wars or pandemics, which significantly alter population trends.
Countries such as the USA as they skipped stage 1 and 2.
Stage 5 is a more recent addition and is not universally accepted.