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15.Linda: Less Is More - Coggle Diagram
15.Linda: Less Is More
Definition 🧠
- A bias where combined events (A ∩ B) are judged as more probable than single events (A).
- Occurs due to reliance on narrative coherence over logical probability.
Mechanisms ⚙️
Narrative Coherence:
- Stories that align with stereotypes or expectations feel more plausible.
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Example: Linda’s Story 📚
Scenario:
- Linda is described as an engaged, socially conscious young woman.
Error:
- People judge "Linda is a bank employee and a feminist" as more probable than "Linda is a bank employee."
Logical Reality:
- A ∩ B (bank employee and feminist) is always less probable than A (bank employee).
Why It Happens 🔍
- Relies on quick, intuitive judgment influenced by descriptive details.
- Plausible details (e.g., "feminist") overshadow logical probabilities.
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Implications 🌍
Decision-Making Errors:
- Leads to skewed judgments in everyday reasoning, hiring, and policy-making.
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Key Takeaways 📚
- Conjunction fallacy arises when plausibility overrides probability.
- Combined events (A ∩ B) are always less probable than single events (A).
- Awareness and logical framing help counteract intuitive biases.
- Encouraging System 2 engagement improves decision-making accuracy.