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12.The Science Of Availability - Coggle Diagram
12.The Science Of Availability
Definition
🧠
A cognitive bias where judgments are influenced by how easily examples or information come to mind.
Affects frequency estimates, category size judgments, and event probability assessments.
Mechanisms
⚙️
System 1's Role
:
Provides an intuitive sense of availability based on ease of recall.
Quick and automatic but prone to error.
System 2's Role
:
Searches for examples and evaluates availability.
Can mitigate the bias by explaining factors affecting recall ease or difficulty.
Factors Influencing Availability
🎯
Ease of Recall
:
The easier it is to retrieve examples, the larger or more frequent the event or category seems.
Difficulty of Recall
:
Struggling to recall examples leads to underestimation of category size or frequency.
Personal Relevance
:
When examples are personally significant, individuals focus on the number of examples, not ease of recall.
Systematic Errors
🔍
Inadequate Anticipations
:
System 1’s flawed assumptions about availability lead to errors.
Over- or Underestimation
:
Large or small judgments based on ease or difficulty of recalling examples.
Impact of External Factors
:
Stimulating or distracting environments can skew judgments.
Amplifying Factors
⚡
Positive Mood
: Encourages reliance on intuition (System 1).
Overconfidence
: Diminishes the corrective role of System 2.
Fatigue or Distraction
: Weakens System 2’s engagement.
Power Dynamics
: Sense of control increases bias.
Knowledge Gaps
: Lack of domain expertise exacerbates errors.
Mitigation Strategies
🛠️
Focus on Counting Examples
:
Shift attention from recall ease to the number of examples.
Contextual Awareness
:
Identify and explain factors influencing recall (e.g., mood, distractions).
Engage System 2
:
Actively question initial intuitive judgments from System 1.
Practice Statistical Thinking
:
Use objective data to verify assumptions about frequency or category size.
Key Takeaways
📚
Availability heuristic simplifies decision-making but is prone to bias.
Systematic errors occur when judgments rely heavily on ease of recall.
Awareness, critical thinking, and contextual evaluation reduce bias effects.