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7.Jumping to Conclusions Machine - Coggle Diagram
7.Jumping to Conclusions Machine
System 1 Characteristics
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Tendency
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Jumps to conclusions quickly, without considering ambiguity.
Automatically accepts new information as true.
Credulity
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Assumes truth for any new input unless challenged by System 2.
Limitations
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Prone to confirmation bias, reinforcing existing beliefs.
Requires System 2 to apply skepticism.
Role of System 2
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Conditions for Intervention
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Must be free from distractions, not fatigued, and actively engaged.
Skepticism
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Challenges and evaluates System 1’s conclusions.
Essential for critical thinking and avoiding bias.
The Halo Effect
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Definition
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A bias where one impression affects subsequent evaluations.
Mechanism
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System 1 uses limited, ambiguous information to reinforce coherence.
Example
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Grading: Initial evaluations influence subsequent judgments (e.g., Kahneman’s student papers).
Preventing Bias
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Decorrelation
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Separate or isolate observations to minimize the influence of earlier errors.
Practical Applications
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Evaluate tasks independently to ensure fairness and accuracy.
Structure for Objectivity
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Create workflows that avoid contamination between successive evaluations.
Key Takeaways
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System 1’s Nature
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Efficient but prone to errors due to its reliance on intuition and coherence.
System 2’s Importance
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Brings critical thinking but is energy-intensive.
Halo Effect’s Impact
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Demonstrates how initial impressions distort subsequent judgments.
Decorrelation Strategies
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Key to reducing bias and improving decision-making accuracy.