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TIP 2 - Coggle Diagram
TIP 2
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Armed conflicts
1) UCDP: Uppsala Conflict Data Program
"an armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a State, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths".
- one state involved;
- use of force
- 25 deaths
2) COW requires 1000 deaths.
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Types of state-based conflicts:
- INTERSTATE
- INTRASTATE: they are the most common today, but they are less lethal because of the weapons that are used: less heavy weapons
- INTERNATIONALIZED INTRASTATE
- EXTRASTATE
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1) 2022: a particular deadly year
- 56 conflicts;
- Russia-Ukraine and the war in Ethiopia against the TigrayPeople'sLiberationFront (TPLF).
2) 2023: decrease in fatalities but the conflicts rose to 59
- end of the war in Ethiopia
From traditional security to human security:
- battle-related deaths;
- total war deaths: population can be unsecure even after the end of war. After toy achive peace, you have to secure the populaion.
PeaceKeeping operation by the UN and assessed contribution.
Civil Wars
One of the actors must be the government, whose opposition must me organized. One-sided violence in excluded and a certain number of casualities is required.
Short and long term effects in both the global South and the global South.
15% decline in weatlh, since civil war last on average 7 years.
Civil wars are increasing over time and they fail to end quickly: as a reslut we observe an accumulation of ongoing civil wars.
Why are they so long? Only 80% of civil wars end up with a clear victory from one side, and information in order to declare victory takes time.
- commitment problem
- a negotiated settlement means that one of the parties give up its weapons and will respect a certain behaviour in the future;
- parties fail to keep up with their end of the bargain
Third party enforcement:
- interest in peace
- willingness and ability to use force
- signal resolve and clear speeches and communication
Causes of civil wars
Structural opportunities: state capacity
- Particular conditions (economic, social or political) that consent the rebel to use force;
- Global South;
- Weak State which has a big territory to control;
- Weak statehood because of the "light" colonization.
Immediate causes
economic causes
1) collectiove grievance
being unhappy about something: social injustice, poverty, inqueality, socio-political instability.
2) greed
exploit resources, there's no demand for social justice. It is necesary to destroy this kind of people: no deal with them.
identity issues
ethnic wars and combination with commodities and resources.
Rebel's objectives:
- control of the state;
- secession;
- predatory;
- new transnational state.
How to cope with them?
- economic development, social justice, redistribution, wealth policies;
- strenghten statehood and hard security.
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Types of warfare in civil wars:
- conentional wars;
- irregular wars;
- asymmetric wars.
Terrorism
Terrorism as a form of Diplomacy of violence (coercive bargarin)
Force is used as a bragain instrument and it is effective and succesfull if it remains latent.
Particular kind of strategy: coercion
The main goal of terrorist is to produce pain and fear through it. Produce pain in the future
coercion
- pain is the variable that has to be manipulated;
- coercion has a diplomatic and political logic, based on persuasion;
- enemy's interests and fears;
- successful if violence is latent.
Coercion and power: importance of provocation. Terrorists want the enemy to respond in a disproportional and indiscriminate way in order to seek radicalization.
The population that experience a terrorst attack want the government to make justice immediately: this can be achived only through a disproportional and indiscriminate response, also beacuse terrorists hide and find shelter inside the population. There's no use of rule of law. States end up with striking the entire population.
brute force
- pain is incidental and related to the clash of forces. The first goal is to destroying your enemies' forces;
- there's no political logic;
- clash of armed force;
- overcome enemy's forces;
- it is succesfull when it is used.
Definitions: there's not a fixed definition.
- Noam Chomsky: "use of coercive means aimed at civilian population in an effort to achieve political, religious or other aims"; unlawful use of force
There's not a common definition also because the term is heavily politicized: side that you take in a dispute. Political judgment, normative connotation and delegitimation.
Send a message to those who survive a terrorist attack.
Terrorism is a strategy with specific means and a variety of political ends. Strategy takes into account other's behaviour, and means the use of available and limited resources to gain any objective.
Schelling: strategic actions
Production of fear: convey a message through the use of violence.
Terrorism is a strategy that produces fear through a variety of methdos: one of them is violence.
Production of fear through violence.
Fear is necessary because fuels phsycological effects: individuals often overstimate the probability to fall victim of this kind of violence so tend to ask for more indiscriminated and disproportional response from their government. Also terrorist magnify the effects of small-scale violence.
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Drones warfare
dehumanization of war: drones operator never experience the battle field. They are required to have three particular attributes:
- mental agility;
- communication skills;
- multi-tasking.
First drones were used as targets and trainers: built to be shot down. The first drones where produced by the US in the WWII.
Drones Today: remotely operated aircrafts, that state and non state-actors are using more and more often in the context of war. From a reconnaissance to a combat role.
Ballistic power: hit something from a distance. It becomes a matter of hunting. Minimize vulnerability and casuality aversion by John Mueller.
it is essential to reduce vulnerability for two main reasons (casualty aversion):
- minimize casualities in order to preserve men and militar power;
- political issues: if the numer of victim rises, the support of the war among civilians in the long term will drop.
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Future of drones:
- size;
- swarms;
- stealth;
- speed.
Rally 'round the flag: is a political and sociological concept referring to the phenomenon where a country's population shows increased support for its government, leaders, or national institutions during a time of crisis, particularly in the context of war or external threats. This term can also evoke broader cultural, historical, and political themes tied to national unity.
causes:
- perceived external threat;
- Nationalistic appeals by political leaders;
- role of the media
History:
- 1849 Austria attacked Venice;
- 1898 Cameras on kites to gather information (Cuba);
- after WWII US exploited drones to create a Lighting Bug: reconnaissance in Vietnam;
- Drones used as misleading devices.
Types of aircrafts:
- The predator (2001-2017): used for the first time during the balkan wars as reconnaissance aircraft. Illuminate targets to allow the F-16 to strike;
- from the Predator to the Reaper: faster drones and could double the missile count. It was an actual combat device
Before the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war (2020) there eas a consensus that currnt drones were not very useful in interstate wars because they fly low and slow.
Drones and Counterterrorism: hunting, decapitation and pursuing. Out the theater of war. The US increased the use of drones for counterterrorism activities. Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden.
Drones attractiveness:
- continuous surveillance and gather information;
- save in trainings;
- cheap and easy to replace: cheapness means quantity;
- easier to kill beacuse there's no relation with the target;
- Dave Grossman: On Killing. Phisycal distance from the target and resistance to kill.
Risks of drones:
- Blowback effect;
- Moral hazard
War in Afghanistan
In 2021, during the Biden administration, the American army withdrew its troops, and in a little, the Afghan troops surrended to the Talibans. Two main reasons of the defeat:
- The afghan government as VICE: Vertically Integrated Criminal Enterprice: it was heavily corrupted and wanted to get as much money as possible from the international community;
- Role of the Pakistan in sheltering the Talibans. Sanctuaries in Pakistan that was the primary support.
Western Philosophical assumptions: bolster a political change and modernization under Western auspices. Import democracy, rule of law, non discriminatory educational system; juidicial refroms.
Durand Line is the souther board of Afghanistan and it is not recognized also for ethical reasons: Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek. Many Pashtuns were located in the Pakistani territory.
Previous history of Afghanistan:
- Soviet invasion in 1979. It helped creating the Afghan resistance fighters, known as Mujahideen, that fought against the Soviet occupation. The war fostered the growth of militant groups and radical Islamist ideologies that would later evolve into organizations like the Taliban and al-Qaeda;
- after the Soviet withdrawal (1987-89), Afghanistan plunged into civil war as Mujahideen factions fought for control. This instability created a power vacuum, paving the way for the Taliban's rise in the mid-1990s;
- 1992 fall of Najibullah;
- Agreements of Peshawar: coalition government;
- Hekmatyar;
- civil war 1992-1996: in 1994 the Taliban's operations started in southern areas. 1996 taking of Kabul.
5 main operations since 2001 (1996-2001 the Taliban conquered the majority of Afghnaistan):
- Operation enduring freedom --> Operation Freedom's Sentinel in 2015 (US);
- ISAF had the aim to destroy Al-Quaeda with the contributing nations providing troops --> Resolut Support Mission (NATO). Regional commands. ISAF wanted to build a modern government able to control the country and to promote economic and social development (PRT's);
- UNAMA which is still active
Insurgents:
expel foreign forces by increasing the costs of their stay and weaken the authority of the GIRoA.
Terrorism and hit and run operations. Kalashikov and suicide terrorists.
Also, a shadow government was created by the Talibans with judges and police to enforce decision. Parallel institutions
US tried to respond to the insurgency with the COIN FIELD MANUAL (2006). Problems:
- corrupted government. Local population didn't want international forces;
- irreconciliable talibans;
- economic development failed;
- sanctuaries in Pakistan: Biden and Karzai. Fear of destabilizing Pakistan.
Israel - Hamas war
- Israel stayed in Gaza until 2005;
- in 2006 Hamas wins the election;
- in 2007 Hamas consolidated its power in the strip, while Fatah did the same in West Bank: de facto division;
- from 2007 to 2023 Israel adopted a containment strategy: manage the conflict rather than solve it.
ISRAEL
1) containment to reach the minimum goal:
- fence and concrete wall (its construction ended in 2021);
- technological tools;
- episodic use of force;
- raids to cope with the escalation of tension.
2) mown the lawn: intermittent application of force. It was believed to be sufficient in order to jeopardize Hamas' appetite for destruction.
3) avoid COIN
positive outcomes
- containment worked for 16 years;
- minimize Isreali's casualties;
- Israel did not expose to any major existential threat.
negative outcomes
- containment failed in both degradating Hamas' infrastructures and jeopardizing Hamas' appetite for destruction;
- moral hazard.
New strategy: Annihiliation. Try to destroy the enemy by inflicting the final blow. Operation Iron Swords
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Human Toll
Hamas decided to position its center and facilities underneath the civil population: tunnels.
ICJ and ICC on genocide and war crimes and crimes against humanity