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Chapter 2 (Strategic choice) "decision-making framework" -…
Chapter 2 (Strategic choice) "decision-making framework"
Uncertainty areas
Environment-related (UE)
: Uncertainty about the work environment that could be addressed through technical solution (data collection , surveys, numeric analysis)
Value-related (UV)
: Uncertainty about the guiding values, goals or priorities which is handled through political responses (referring to higher authorities, clarifying objectives)
Related Decision Fields (UR)
: Uncertainty related to choices on related agendas managed by exploring relationships between different decision agendas
This is uncertainty about how decisions in related areas or agendas might influence or be influenced by the current decision.
Examples: collaboration between departments, coordination between policies
these areas are later addressed in the choosing mode
4 modes of decision making activity
Designing mode
Purpose
: To generate and evaluate possible courses of action for each decision area. (we focus on each problem)
Process
:
List mutually exclusive action options ( 2 to 5) for each decision area (e.g., “Build no prisons,” “Build 5 prisons,” “Build 10 prisons”)
Identify incompatibilities between options across different decision areas
Enumerate all possible decision schemes:
(A decision scheme includes one option from each area, ensuring no incompatibilities exist.)
Narrow down to feasible schemes by eliminating incompatible combinations.
Comparing mode
Purpose:
To assess and compare feasible decision schemes based on chosen criteria.
Process
:
Identify
comparison areas
(criteria) for evaluation—these could include cost, acceptability, or effectiveness.
Assign values to each decision scheme for these criteria
(Use numerical scales, rankings)
Schemes are then selected and inspected in a pairwise manner, individually or in a shortlist
Using the comparison the uncertainty areas are then explicitly considered to identify the areas related to the schemes being compared
Shaping mode
Purpose
: To define and structure the decision problem
Process
:
Identify
decision areas
—these are areas of where courses of actions are possible
Map these areas onto a
decision graph
:
Nodes represent decision areas
Links (edges) between nodes indicate interdependencies—areas where decisions may influence each other.
Highlight clusters of decision areas that are critical, urgent, or closely connected.
choosing mode
Purpose
: To make a final decision and plan implementation.
Process
:
Select the preferred feasible decision scheme based on comparisons.
Develop a commitment package
Immediate decisions to be implemented
Explorations: Actions to reduce uncertainty (e.g., further studies or consultations)
Deferred decisions: Actions delayed until uncertainties are resolved
Contingency plans: Alternatives in case the preferred scheme becomes infeasible