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The Political Risks Facing The World Economy in 2025 - Coggle Diagram

- - - - President of EU Commission
        https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/sv/statement_25_673
      - UK Defence Budget Increase
        https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-biggest-sustained-increase-in-defence-spending-since-the-cold-war-protecting-british-people-in-new-era-for-national-security
- - - - International relations declining
        
        WPS undermined by Trump - values in NATO are deterioating p2.
        https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/14702436.2025.2474059?needAccess=true
        
        p2
        "This makes the WPS agenda vulnerable within NATO, especially so under a second Trump presidency, which swept to power by actively rejecting many of NATO’s core values."
        
        p6
        As noted above, Russia’s war against Ukraine, has been one fought not just in terms of Ukrainian territory but against NATO values, including gender equality. If WPS were to remain merely a “hollow concept,” not a core part of what NATO is and does, then this would undermine NATO’s normative defence against such an offensive.
    - - p17
        "The growth in violent extremism around the world, and the attendant risks to development, have been linked to a set of wider phenomena that in varying combinations jointly facilitate the spread of violent extremism.21 UNDP’s conceptual framework highlights the following eight drivers that can lead to radical behavior and result in violent extremist action: (1) the role and impact of global politics; (2) economic exclusion and limited opportunities for upward mobility; (3) political exclusion and shrinking civic space; (4) inequality, injustice, corruption and the violation of human rights; (5) disenchantment with socio-economic and political systems; (6) rejection of growing diversity in society; (7) weak state capacity and failing security; and (8) a changing global culture and banalization of violence in media and entertainment."
      - p4
        "Growing horizontal inequalities are one of the consistently cited drivers of violent extremism. Critically, unemployment or poverty alone is not the only push factor inciting violence and extremism: perceptions of injustice, human-rights violations, social-political exclusion, widespread corruption or sustained mistreatment of certain groups, are also considered important push factors."
        
        p4
        "There is a risk that failed political transitions, with weak institutions, law enforcement and checks and balances provide a fertile ground for violent extremism."
      - p21
        "Most violent extremist groups offer an ideological alternative to the combined narrative of free markets, democracy and multicultural diversity. This was also the ideology used in the past by groups such as the Baader-Meinhof Group in Germany or the Red Brigades in Italy, rejecting the established global order and many of the parameters of the modern nation-state. The world’s growing economic inequality—whereby nearly half of the wealth is owned by 1% of its population – and the sense of injustice that stems from this, are projected by violent extremists as a result of a socio-economic and political system that is rigged to serve a wealthy and powerful few. In contrast, the narrative professed by extremists offers empowerment, order"
        p22
        "and security, with violence as one of the tools for imposing this view on the wider society. Hence they often allude to the necessity for a violent overthrow of a decadent and corrupt system."
  - - - p572
        "economic elites are estimated to have a quite substantial, highly significant, independent impact on policy"
      - p575
        One is the nearly total failure of “median voter” and other Majoritarian Electoral Democ-racy theories. When the preferences of economic elites and the stands of organized interest groups are controlled for, the preferences of the average American appear to have only a minuscule, near-zero, statistically non-significant impact upon public policy.
      - p576
        "Interest groups do have substantial independent impacts on policy, and a few groups (particularly labor unions) represent average citi-zens’ views reasonably well. But the interest-group system as a whole does not. Overall, net interest-group alignments are not significantly related to the preferences of average citizens. The net alignments of the most influential, business-oriented groups are negatively related to the average citizen’s wishes."
      - p573
        "Thus when popular majorities favor the status quo, opposing a given policy change, they are likely to get their way; but when a majority—even a very large majority—of the public favors change, it is not likely to get what it wants. In our 1,779 policy cases, narrow pro-change majorities of the public got the policy changes they wanted only about 30 percent of the time. More strikingly, even overwhelmingly large pro-change majorities, with 80 percent of the public favoring a policy change, got that change only about 43 percent of the time."
    - - p80
        "These two developments illustrate a basic concern about ‘dark money’ and social media. As election campaigning increasingly shifts to the internet and social media new concerns have also been raised about how undisclosed ‘dark money’ can influence elections and undermine political equality"
  - - - p11
        "Young people are accumulating significantly less wealth than previous generations: by their early 30s, average net wealth among those born in the early 1980s was just £27,000 per adult, about half of the average wealth holdings of those born in the 1970s. This largely reflects a decline in homeownership among young people over the past two decades, from 55% in 1997 to 35% in 2017 for those aged 25–34