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04: Voting behaviour, UK politics - Coggle Diagram
04: Voting behaviour, UK politics
Social/primacy
Factors that determine voting behaviour
Class and class dealignment
Historically the most important factor. From 1945 to 1966, general elections were completely defined by how successful the Conservatives and Labour were in mobilising their core support.
Class dealignment
refers to the fact that voters are much less likely to vote based on their social class.
Issue based voting began to overtake class - based voting in 1968 when significant numbers of the white working class shifted to Conservative, based on the fact they were tougher on immigration policies,
staring class dealignment
Typical trend
: Working class labour, middle/upper class conservative.
Region
Typical trends:
The south - east: conservatives
are often more successful here as there is high home ownership and little historical relationship with trade unions.
Urban areas and the north:
ethnically diverse big cities and areas with a historically industrial past are often dominated by Labour.
Examples of this trend:
2019 election
North east:
38.3% conservative and 42.6% labour
South east:
54% Conservative, 22.1% labour.
Age
Traditional trends:
conservative support is higher among older voters. Labour/Lib Dems popular among younger voters.
Older people favour conservative policies like strong defence, law and order, and are more eurosceptic than younger people.
Younger people are more likely to be concerned with issues like social justice and environmental law.
The commitment to abolish tuition fees in 2017 and 2019 elections furthered this.
Evidence?
Mainly suggests that age has become a more important social factor than class or region.
Ethnicity
Historical trends
In the past,
commonwealth immigrant communities
sat in the working class bracket, so were more likely to
vote Labour
for their stance on welfare and association with trade unions: and other laws introduced later which benefitted ethnic minorities.
Conservatives
have in the past
lacked support to ethnic minority communities.
For example, in 2017 the Conservatives won just 5 out of the 75 most ethnically diverse constituencies.
Education
Historic trend:
Those with a higher education compromise the top social bracket and have traditionally been more likely to vote conservative.
However,
this trend has been flipped especially due to brexit. White working class males with little education have been more likely to vote conservative, with 59 percent of 'no qualitifcations' voting for Conservative and 23% of the same demographic voting for Labour.
Gender
Historical trend
Labour was the favourable party for Men due to the strong association with male - dominated trade unions.
Present day:
There is little evidence to link gender with voting behaviour, apart from the fact that in 2019, 18-24 females were much more likely to vote Conservative than Labour.
Political (valence) factors
that influence elections
Governing Competence
The ability of a government to handle certain issues, or their inability leading to a protest vote or a vote for another party, can determine how people vote.
How this has helped a party:
Margaret Thatcher's government had brought inflation down and proved a strong leadership through the falkland war, securing a second majority in the
1983
election.
How this has hindered a success of another:
In
1979,
James Callaghan had failed to stop the mass strikes during the winter of discontent and failed to recognise the crisis, leading to a Conservative victory.
Leadership
The ability for the leader to project themselves positively as 'competent' and 'in charge'.
A succesful example:
Tony Blair in 2001 dominated the political landscape with his charismatic personality so there was not much hope for the weak Tory opposition under William Hague.
Opposition leadership
Successful example:
Jeremy Corbyn focused the 2010 conservative campaign around scrutinising the huge national debt under Gordon Brown. This was a key factor that determined Cameron's success and Brown's defeat.
Unsuccessful example:
In 2015, Ed Miliband failed to persuade voters he was a strong enough candidate for prime minister. This was partly undermined by the
edstone
incident, where a 9 foot stone tablet with his campaign promises was mocked by the public.
Minority party leadership:
the leadership of other political parties has often been important in determining general elections.
Example:
Nigel Farage was heavily influential in influencing the 2015 election. Nigel made Brexit a key point of national discussion, and focussed Brexit campaigns around Immigration: appealing to the working class, which took votes away from Labour.
Or
the coalition
Negative approval ratings, but achieveing a high level of success
Despite Jeremy Corbyn's low YouGov poll rating in 2017 (only 14 percent of people believed he was a suitable prime minister candidate, compared to 50 percent for May), his optimistic campaign took seats away from the Tories and increased his vote share by 9.6%
Campaign
The way in which a party campaigns can have a significant impact on their result in a general election.
Example of success:
In 2017, Jeremy Corbyn had an optimistic and likeable campaign, taking the labour case directly to the people, in contrast to Theresa May's uninspiring and controlled campaign. This led to his vote share increasing by 10%
Example of failiure:
Jeremy Corbyn again, failed to campaign in the same style, combined with allegations of anti semitism and failing to show up to his December campaigns, which quickly undermined his support.
These 2 examples show how
campaigns are influential in the result of an election.
See one note for debate
Voter turnout
Voter turnout is less high than it has traditionally been. A turnout of 59.8% was achieved in the 2024 election, only just above the all - time low of 50.4% in 2001.
The key point to remember is that older people are much more likely to vote than younger people and this is usually to the conservatives advantage, with their top - heavy age base.
Manifesto
While not every part of a party's manifesto will be liked by voters, certain parts of it can determine a party's performance in an election.
For example:
Labours promise to abolish tuition fees in 2017 greatly contributed to their success.
Manifestos can be scrutinised by opposition parties to their advantage. For example, in 1992, Labours manifesto promise to increase public spending was criticised as a 'tax bombshell' for families, contributing to a tory win.
Issue voting
Voters can vote on the importance of certain issues. General elections can be determined by voters making a rational choice based on their own interest.
Example:
Brexit - based issue voting was extremely influential in 2015. This contributed to UKIPs success, where their vote share rose from 3.1% in 2005 to 12.6% in 2015.
Labour's pledge
to abolish tuition fees in 2017 caused lots of young people to vote Labour specifically for this reason.
However...
Issues can be less important than the government's reputation for competence.
Labour achieved a 11% swing in 1997 amongst AB (seniors and professionals) voters, even though they were most likely to be effected by their windfall tax on privatised utilities, specifically because the John Major government was so unpopular.
The Media
Print journalism (newspapers)
Do newspapers influence general elections?
No:
Newspapers 'political bias' is only a reflection of its readership rather than their developing views. Newspaper readership has also declined significantly: such as the daily mirror from 2.4 mil sales in 1997 to 333,556 sales in December 2021.
Yes:
77% of tabloids were hostile to Ed Milliband leading to a 2015 defeat.
However,
the same occurred with Jeremy Corbyn in 2017, and he managed to increase his vote share by 9.6%
Case studies
2024 general election
1997 general election
1979 general election
Context: