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The reasons for uncertainty can be divided into natural and human factors…
The reasons for uncertainty can be
divided into natural and human factors
Natural factors
The impact of permafrost
temperatures are so low, plants don’t decompose, so dead
organic matter just sits there.
thousands of years old, and has never been thawed
out
climate warms, areas of permafrost are beginning to thaw
out, potentially releasing an enormous store of carbon
= Permanently frozen ground in the tundra biome
The impact of peatlands
peat = accumulation of partly decayed vegetation - boggy areas
Two natural stores of carbon – could both release a lot of
it quickly in certain conditions
Peatlands are made of partly decayed vegetation – store
lots of C as waterlogged so decomposition is slow
Drying out fast as climate warms – dryer conditions -
faster decomp - more C released
The role of oceans and
forests as carbon sinks
Places where carbon is locked away
Oceans take in lots of CO2, either into the water itself or
(long term) buried as sediment
Forests take in CO2 through photosynthesis
Both of these will become less effective as the planet
warms, and as they become saturated (too full of carbon)
why uncertainties
Hard to tell how fast the permafrost is melting
Hard to tell how much C is stored (roughly 1700GtC)
human activities continue to increase emissions and warm the climate
Hard to tell how will the rate of melt speed up