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Presentación Marca personal Conferencia taller webinar propuesta organica…

- - - - Y = AE = C + I + G + NX
        
        Anything that affects one of the spending components affects aggregate expenditure, and therefore affects output
        
        .
- - - - the ex ante real interes rate = the nominal interest rate minus expected inflation
        
        ↑ r ↓ AE
        ↓ r ↑ AE
        
        EFFECTS ON SPENDING
        
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        Consumption
        
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        Investment
        
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        Net exports
        
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        THE CONSUMPTION MULTIPLIER
        
        The effects of a higher r on AE are magnified by the consumption multiplier
        
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        THE AGGREGATE EXPENDITURE CURVE
        
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- - - - Monetary Policy and the Real Rate
        
        The central bank controls the r
        In the short run, the central bank’s control of the nominal interest rate allows it to control the real rate as well.
        
        For a given level of expected inflation, the central bank can set a nominal interest rate that produces the real rate it desires
        
        .
    - - Equilibrium Output
        
        in the short run:
        Y depends on the AE curve and the central bank’s choice r
        
        .
    - - Shifts in Monetary Policy
        
        Output rises or falls when the central bank changes the real interest rate.
        
        https://youtu.be/8b03af6b670
- - - - Types of Expenditure Shocks:
        
        Government spending
        
        Taxes
        
        Consumer confidence
        
        New technologies
        
        Changes in bank lending
        
        Foreign business cycles
        
        Government spending: the effect of higher military spending.
        
        Taxes: ↑ A tax ↓ less income left to spend ↓Consumption → AE curve
        
        Consumer confidence: If consumers fear trouble, they save more for a rainy day when their incomes might fall
        
        New technologies: Investment spending depends partly on whether firms see good investment opportunities.
        
        Changes in bank lending: Many firms depend on banks to finance investment
        
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- - - - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NY0SCLSbUMc
- - - - year to year, fluctuate around they normal or average level
        
        .
- - - - normal unemployment rate =
        natural rate of unemployment =
        U* =
        
        It is the rate when the economy's resources, including its labor force, are used with a normal intensity.
        
        Unemployment is at the natural rate:
        output = potential output
        ALL ECONOMIES HAVE UNEMPLOYMENT
        
        .
        
        Determinates of U
        
        workers are unemployed indefinitely because they lack skills or don’t live where the jobs are
        
        workers lose their jobs and
        take time to find new ones
        
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        The U varies across countries ans time periods
    - - normal level of ouput that an economy is able to produce =
        potential output =
        Y* =
        
        Depends of:
        
        level of resources:
        number of workers
        amoount of physical capital
        ( machines and factories)
        
        thecnologies
        
        is NOT the maximum amount that the economy can producee
        
        is the amount produced when the resources are used with a normal intensity.
        
        can rises slowly over time, as its labor force grows, capital accumulates and new technologie are invented
        ↑ Long-term economic growth
        
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        long-run levels
- - - - Real GDP= Actual output = Y
        
        fluctuates erratically
        
        Y > Y o Y < Y
        
        .
        
        OutPut Fluctuations
        
        Y= actual output = which gros smoothly
        Y*= potential output = Volatile
        
        Economic booms
        = Y>Y*
        = the economy produces more than usual given its resources
        Recessions
        = Y<Y*
        = output below potential
        
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        Unemployment Fluctuations
        
        U = actual unemployment
        U*= natural rate
        U>U = Recessions
        U<U = Booms
        
        ↓ Unemployment ↑ output (in booms)
        ↑unemployment ↓output (in recessions)
        
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        Okun’s Law
        
        output gap ↓2pp = unemployment ↑1pp above U*
        
        https://youtu.be/Xg8i5UuL12k
- - - - AE depends of total spending on an economy, this varies over time, causing the business cycle
        
        These ideas were developed by Keynes in 1963,
        he studied output movements focused on the economy’s productive capacity, assumed that Y =Y.
        They attributed the business cycle to shifts in resources and technologies that change Y *
        
        .
- - - - The inflation rate that firms expect becomes the rate that actually occurs
        
        Actual Inflation
        
        Expected inflation
        
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- - - - Rational Expectations
        
        expectations are the best possible forecasts based on all available information
        
        any news about inflation affects expectations.
        
        .
    - - Adaptive Expectations
        
        backward-looking
        expectations
        
        that expectations are not based on all available information
        
        determined by the past
        
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    - - Choosing an Assumption
        
        we assume adaptive expectations as in Equation
        This assumption helps keep our analysis simple
        
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- - - - Why Output Matters
        
        High production increases the firm’s marginal cost: the cost of producing an extra unit of output
        
        RECESSION:
        ↓ production, they have unused capacity. Facing high unemployment, workers are less aggressive in pushing for raises. ↓ marginal costs, so firms raise prices by less than usual.
        
        .
    - - The Phillips Curve
        
        assume that when Y = Y*
        
        Y > Y* ↑marginal cost ↑prices ↑inflation
        
        short-run relationship between output and inflation =>
        
        if U = U*
        
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    - - Equations for the Phillips Curve
        
        Output gap = =
        
        says that inflation equals expected inflation if output is at potential. When output deviates from potential, inflation moves in the same direction.
        
        is a positive constant that measures how strongly output affects inflation
        
        .
    - - The Phillips Curve with Adaptive Expectations
        
        Output Phillips Curve with Adaptive Expectations
        
        last year’s inflation
        
        Y>Y* ↑Inflation
        
        Unemployment Phillips Curve with Adaptive Expectations
        
        U = U* =0
        
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- - - - adverse supply shock ↑ costs
        beneficial supply shock ↓ costs
        Short run change
        
        Supply Shocks and the Phillips Curve
        
        The Output Phillips Curve with Supply Shocks
        
        v = supply shocks
        v = 0 no supply shock
        v > 0 adverse shock
        v < 0 beneficial shock
        
        The Output Phillips Curve with Adaptive Expectations and Supply Shocks
        
        Inflation ↑:
        
        Y > Y*
        
        v > 0
        
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- - - - Policymakers can reduce inflation by raising the real interest rate, but at the cost of reducing output in the short run.
        
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  - - - a tax cut or a rise in consumer confidence, which raises AE moves the economy along the Phillips
        curve to a higher inflation rate
        
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- - - - .
        
        A Rise in the Real Interest Rate
        
        Assume
        Y=Y*
        v = 0
        π ~
        
        monetary policy of disinflation
        A . ↑ ↓ r
        B. ↑ r ↓ Y
        C. Y<Y* ↓ π
        
        a temporary fall in output
        reduces inflation permanently
        
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      - .
        
        An Adverse Supply Shock
        
        Assume:
        Y = Y*
        v = 0
        π ~
        
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        Accommodative monetary policy
        
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        Nonaccommodative Policy
        
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- - - - The long-run path of Y, is determinate by Y*
        Y deviates from Yp during booms and recessions
        in the long-run returns to Yp
        
        Yp is not influenced by monetary policy
        Y* depends as labor force, capital stick and technology.
        
        the central bank's action afeccts Y but not Y*
        
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