Please enable JavaScript.
Coggle requires JavaScript to display documents.
Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) and Strategic Leadership (SL) - Andrew…
Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
and Strategic Leadership (SL) - Andrew Hill
Categories p.2
Composition
Size
Diversity
Structure
Openness
Network density
Agent behavior
Rules
Adaptation
Competition for resources
Reinforcing and balancing feedback
Deliberate change
Learning challenges
Causal timing
Credit identification provlem
Causal distance
Rule discovery problem
Evolution
Random change
Hierarchy of agent performance
Loss of variance removes ability to see causality
Collective behavior
Equilibrium
Punctuated
No equilibrium lasts
Competition
Inevitable and inexorable change
Multiple causes
No cause of equilibrium is unique
Multiple effects
CAS are complex, not chaotic
Multiple , contradictory analyses can be correct
No final condition
Axioms
All SL involves managing CAS p.4
Managing national armed forces
Developing national defense strategy
Building a ready force
Humans are not well adapted to managing CAS p.5
Amount of information
Rate of change
Gerras’ barriers to critical thinking
Egocentrism
Biases and heuristics
Overconfidence and logical fallacies
Organizations help to manage CAS’, but are themselves CAS’ p.5
Leadership discipline
Exploration
Analysis
Definition
Understand causal relationships, alter conditions
New equilibrium
Maintain equilibrium
Foundation of indirect leadership
What do I want to improve?
What do I want to maintain?
Examples
Successful Examples p.2
Apollo Space Program
US Occupation of Japan post-WW2
Health Improvements in the 20th C
Joint stock companies
Smallpox eradication
Manhattan Project
Unsuccessful Examples p.4
2008 Financial Crisis
Collectivization of Soviet agriculture
Great Leap Forward
US invasion of Iraq
Obstacles to good judgement
Preference for simplicity
Aversion to ambiguity and dissonance
Belief in an orderly world
Ignorance of the laws of chance
Framework
Variance is your friend
Probabilities not certainties
Rapid prototyping
Jack of all trades, master of none
Timing is an art and time is precious
In assessing risk, tie goes to the status quo