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Dodging Botherson Analogues - Case Study Neustadt and May Johnson…

- - - - Knew war would be long and drawn out
- - - - Humiliating defeat
      - Resulted in North / South division of Vietnam
    - - Commentary to McNamara on planned troop increase recommendation to LBJ p.80
      - Summary of pro/anti debate on DC p.80
        
        Questions to LBJ
        
        What is the chance of getting into a “white man war with all the brown men against us or apathetic”? Oof. P. 81
        
        Can we plan for McNamara’s recommendations and not pull trigger until Aug/Sep 1965? P. 81
        
        What do the political and PR campaigns for (William) Bundy and McNamara plans look like? P. 81
        
        What is the upper limit of our liability if we commit 44 battalions now? P. 81
        
        Can we frame this to keep the war limited? P. 81
      - Questions to McNamara
        
        Can US troops fight counter-guerilla? p.80
        
        Would Vietcong engage in direct combat (as Westmoreland envisioned)? p.80
        
        What keeps US from slippery slope of total responsibility for the war and corresponding Vietnamese failures? p. 80
        
        What is the upper limit of US liability? p. 80
        200k troops for limited missions… how many will we send if this fails? Is this rational?
        
        Do we have any leverage to force peace (I.e. nuclear threat used by Eisenhower in N. Korea in 1953)? P. 80
        
        Why do we have to decide in July, when incomplete evidence is available? p. 80
      - Actual analogy on France 1954 vs. US 1965, p. 81-
        
        Likenesses
        
        Almost none
        
        Differences p. 82
        
        France fought to preserve colonial regime vs. US support of independent Vietnamese government
        
        France opposed reform, US supported a government representing reform
        
        France had committed 500k troops vs. 350k communist soldiers, 8% GDP, very high casualties vs. US with 250k S. Vietnamese fighters vs. 200k guerrilla fighters, relatively small budget and very low casualties
        
        In France, war was very unpopular and they lost the will to fight vs. US with “general support for LBJ Vietnam policies” in 1 poll, and dismissed congressional disapproval
        
        Likely written by Bundy staff (not Bundy)
        
        Advocacy not analysis
        
        Designed to counter William Bundt’s questions about “like France”
    - - Korea was under UN auspices
      - Direct cross-border conflict
      - Strong S. Korean government and Army
      - No will to fight Chinese
      - Corollary to Truman in 1953 at the end of the Korean war
  - - - S.. Vietnam is losing
      - Domino argument
      - Stopping dominoes requires US military
      - No one knows how many or for how long
    - - More likenesses
        
        Franc supported by US
        
        Campaign worked for a year
        
        Higher chance of success than LBJ in 1965
    - - More casualties
      - War of attrition
      - Popularity?
      - Predicted a long, hard war
- - - - LBJ Made up his mind, organized planning
        to achieve his desired outcome p.79
      - LBJ unlikely to deny troop request from McNamara that would keep generals from complaining p. 81
- - - - Catholic minority discriminating against Buddhist minority
      - US coverage of human bonfire protests
    - - Diem overthrown in military coup
        
        US (JFK knew)
        
        JFK horrified Diem was assassinated (catholic??)
      - JFK thinking of leaving?
  - - - Secure nomination,
        run for president himself
        
        Running against Barry Goldwater
        (hawkish himself)
      - Establish “Johnson" presidency
        post-assassination
      - New Deal
      - Fair Deal
      - Combating communism
    - - Trying to get Vietnam to take care of itself (1963-64)
  - - - Used attack on US barracks
        in S. Vietnam as an excuse
      - “Inflict Pain”
    - - Request of GEN Wedtmoreland to
        guard air base in Danang
        
        3x brigades of Marines
        
        Then wanted to go on the offensive
        
        Westmoreland wanted conventional offensive
        
        AMB Taylor wanted “hit and run” from coastal enclaves
    - - Domestic agenda
      - Mekong Valley improvements
      - Dominican Republic (“new Cuba concern”)
    - - UND SEC Ball argued South Vietnam as a lost cause in Oct 1964 p.79
      - LBJ very aware of the judgement of history (Bay of Pigs)