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计划Planning - Coggle Diagram
计划Planning
Foundations of decision making
What types of decisions and decision-making conditions do managers face
How does a manager make programmed decisions
programmed,or routine,decisions
are the most efficient way to handle structured problems,
is relatively simple and tends to rely heavily on previous solutions
Decisions are programmed to the extent that(1)they are repetitive and routine
(2)a specific approach has been worked out for handling them
nonprogrammed
How do problems differ
structured problems
:the goal of the decision maker is clear,the problem familiar,and information about the problem easily defined and complete
unstructured problems
:they are new or unusual,information about such problems is ambiguous or in complete
For structured problems,use(unstructured must rely on nonprogrammed decisions in order to develop unique solutions)
Rule,is an explicit statement that tells a manager what he or she must-or must not-do
Policy,provides guidelines to channel a manager's thinking in a specific direction
Procedures,is a series of interrelated sequential steps that a manager can us when responding to a well-structured problem
How are problems,types of decisions,and organizational level integrated?
programmed decisions
unstructured
↑
type of problem
↓
structured
nonprogramed decisions
Top
↑
level in organization
↓
Lower
What decision-making conditions do managers face？
Risk
,conditions in which the decision maker is able to estimate the like lihood of certain outcomes
Uncertainty
Certainty
,which is a situation where a manager can make accurate decisions because the outcome of every alternative is known
How do groups make decisions?
Adcantages and disadvantages of group decision making
advantages
Diversity of experiences and perspectives
brought to the decision process
More alternatives generated
due to greater quantity and diversity of information ,especially when group members represent different specialities
More complete information
Increased legitimacy
Increased acceptance of a solution
disadvantages
Time-consuming
Minority domination
Ambiguous responsibility
Pressures to confirm
How can you improve group decision making?
The nominal group technique
helps groups arrive at a preferred solution by restricting discussion during the decision-making process间接群体决策/名义群体技术
The electronic meeting
blends the nominal group technique with information technology电子会议
Brainstorming
is a relatively simple idea-generating process that specifically encourages any and all alternatives while withholding criticism of those alternatives头脑风暴
Approaches managers can use to make decisions?
rational model
,that is make logical and consistent choices to maximize value
bounded rationality
,managers make rational decisions,but are limited by their ability to process information
Decisions managers may make planing,leading,organizing,controlling
intuition and managerial decision making
,making decision on the basis of the experience,feelings,and accumulated judgement
How do managers make decisions?
eight steps of the decision-making process
Allocation of weights to criteria标准权重
Development of alternatives制定替代方案
由上至下，最后一个结束后，可循环至第一个
Identification of decision criteria决策标准
analysis of alternatives选择分析
Selection of alternatives选择替代方案
Implementation of the alternative替代方案的实现
Identification of a problem发现问题
Evaluation of decision effectiveness决策有效性评估
What common errors are committed in the decision-making process
When managers make decisions,the use their own particular style,and may use "rules of thumb"经验法则,or heuristics捷径思维,to simplify their decision making.It may lead to errors and biases in processing and evaluating information.
Decision-making errors and biases包括
immediate gratification立即满足，不看未来利益
anchoring effect锚定效应，受过去影响，以最初信息决定
overconfidence过度自信
selective perception选择性感知，用自己的方式理解信息
confirmation bias确认性偏差，只支持自己的观点
framing框架效应，对一个相同的问题不同描述，导致不同的决策判断
availability可得性偏差，过于看重自己知道的信息，忽视对其他信息关注和深度发掘
representation代表性偏差，过分强调这几类的重要性，忽略其他事物，小样本判断大样本
randomness随机误差，偶然误差测定中随机波动形成误差
sunk costs沉没成本，已经付出不可收回的成本
self-serving
hindsight事后诸葛亮
Decision making can be regarded as a problem-solving activity, getting a solution deemed to be optimal,or at least satisfactory.
Decision making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values,preferences and beliefs of the decision-maker
Foundations of planning
What do managers need to know about strategic management
why is strategicmanagement so important?
Managers in organizations of al types and sizes face continually changing situations
Organizations are complex and diverse and each part needs to work together to achieve the organization's goals
It can make a difference in how well an organization performs.
Note:strategic management isn't just for business organizations.
The strategic management process
combination:SWOT
②Doing an external analysis
③Doing an internal analysis
④Formulating strategies
⑤Implementing strategies
①Identifiy the organization's current mission,goals,and strategis
⑥Evaluating results
Strategic management
is what managers do to develop an organization's strategies.
Strategies
are the plans for how the organization will do what it's in business to do,how it will compete successfully,and how it will attract and satisfy its customers in order to achieve its goals
Types of strategies
2.Competitive strategy竞争战略
Porter's competitive strategies framework:
Cost leadership strategy成本领先战略
Differentiation strategy差异化战略
Focus strategy专注战略
Stuck in the middle
3.Functional strategy职能战略
1.Corporate strategy总体战略，公司战略
Stability strategy稳定战略
Growth strategy成长战略
Concentration、Vertical integration、Horizaontal integration、Diversification
Renewal strategy紧缩型战略
What is planning and why do managers need to plan
It is concerned with end(what is to be done)as well as with means(how it is to be don)
planning can be further defined in terms of whether it's formal or informal
formal
writing down these goals and making them available to organization members
using these goals to develop specific plans that clearly define the path the organizaiton will take to get from where it is to where it wants to be.
defining specific goals covering a specific time period
informal
very little,if anything,is written down
Planning is often called the primary management function.
reasons for planning
Changes in the environment
Managers engage in planning to
Provide direction
Reduce the impact of change
Set the standards to facilitate control
Minimize waste and redundancy
How do managers set goals and develop plans
Goals(objectives)are desired outcomes or targets
Types of goals:stated goals and real goals
Setting goals
Plans are documents that outline how goals are going to be met
Breadth使用广度
Strategic plans
Tactical plans战术计划
Time frame时间范围
short-term plans
long-term plans
Specificity明确性
directional plans
Specific plans
Frequency使用频率
standing plans经常性计划
single-use plan一次性计划