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DD210 - W18 - CHAP 11 David Hardman EVERYDAY ERRORS IN MAKING SENSE OF…
DD210 - W18 - CHAP 11
David Hardman
EVERYDAY ERRORS IN MAKING
SENSE OF THE WORLD
INACCURATE
JUDGEMENTS p 181
INCOMPLETE INFO
ADDITIONAL INFO CONSIDERED
THAT SHOULD NOT BE
MISINTERPRETAT° OF
AVAILABLE INFO
FINDING PATTERNS
IN RANDOMNESS
STATISTICAL EXPLANAT° FOR WHY
RANDOM EVENTS OFTEN
HAPPEN IN CLUSTERS P 183
POISSON DISTRIBUT°
METHOD OF CALCULATING
PROBABILITY OF EVENTS OCCURING
PARTICULAR PLACE OR TIME
BUT COUNTER-INTUITIVE
EASIER FOR PPL TO THINK FLYING
BECAME MORE DANGEROUS
PPL EXPECT RANDOM EVENTS TO
SEEM RANDOM (WITHOUT CLUSTERS) p186
APOPHENIA
TENDENCY TO FIND
ILLUSORY PATTERNS
IN RANDOMNESS
HEURISTICS
MENTAL SHORTCUTS p 188
BENEFICIAL
PROBLEMATIC = ERRORS
REPRESENTATIVENESS
HEURISTIC (Kahneman and
Tversky)
THE CONJUNCT° OF 2 EVENTS
CAN NEVER BE MORE LIKELY THAN
THE OCCURRENCE OF EITHER EVENT
BY ITSELF p.190
= CONJUNCT° FALLACY 85%
BASED ON REPRESENTATIVENESS =
LIKELYHOOD OF STHG JUDGED BASED
ON HOW TYPICAL IT SEEMS
LACK OF SENSIVITY
TO SAMPLE SIZE p190
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
(Kahneman and
Tversky)
MORE REPRESENTATIVE
LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS
(Kahneman and
Tversky)
LESS REPRESENTATIVE
GAMBLER'S FALLACY p192
ERRONEOUS BELIEF THAT
PAST EVENTS INFLUENCE
FUTURE ONES TO EVEN IT OUT
BASE RATE FALLACY p; 194
NOT UNDERSTANDING OR
KNOWING HOW OFTEN STHG
OCCURS
AVAILABILITY
HEURISTIC
ASSUMPT° BETTER REMEMBERED
THINGS OCCUR MORE OFTEN p 196
ANCHORING
HEURISTIC
ESTIMATE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED
VALUE
STUDIES ABT HUMAN
JUDGEMENT p188
SETTING REAL-WORLD
PROBLEMS & SEE IF THEIR PROBABILITIES
ACCORD W LOGIC OR PROBABILITY RULES
PROBABILITIES HARD TO
UNDERSTAND
SO HEURISTICS