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Epidemiological transition model - Coggle Diagram
Epidemiological transition model
What does the epidemiological transition model show?
The epidemiological transition model describes changing patterns of populations distributions in relation to changing patterns of mortality, fertility, life expectancy and leading causes of death.
Stage one
The age of pestilence & famine
Pre-industriral, primitive societies/regions, characterised by high mortality rates and low life expectancy (average life expectancy is between 30-35)
Factors e.g. poor sanitation, low standards of living, contaminated water supplies, insufficient access to nutritious food in combination means that people are at greater risk of epidemics of deadly and highly infectious diseases e.g. the Black Death, cholera, typhoid and parasitic diseases
Stage two
The age of receding pandemics
In industrial societies/countries (as countries begin to develop economically), improvements in medical technology, nutrition/diet hygiene, education and living standards means that deaths resulting from malnutrition begin to decrease
Life expectancy rises to about 50 years
Although parasitic and infectious diseases still exist, they no longer cause deaths on a large scale due to improvements in healthcare, diet, hygiene, which means that individuals and countries are more resilient against them.
The main cause of death begins to slowly shift from from infectious diseases e.g. malaria to chronic and degenerative ones.
Today, many LIDCs and EDCs are in this stage : parts of Latin America + the Caribbean for example.
Stage three
Degernative and man-made disease
In post-industrial societies, the rate of mortality slows down.
Further improvements in healthcare/medical technology, hygiene, living standards and an overall stable supply of food = mortality from infectious, communicable diseases + nutritional diffidence diseases are rare e.g. communicable diseases such as TB/measles may have been largely eliminated via large scale vaccination programmes.
However, degenerative diseases such as diabetes, Alzeihmers, cancer become more prevalent and are the main cause of death due to prolonged life expectancy (average life expectancy is around 60+)
As affluence and standards of living rise, non-communicable diseases become more prevalent and widespread as people adopt unhealthier, sedentary lifestyles and eat diets high in saturated fat. For example, type two diabetes, cardiovascular disease and hypertension.
Examples of countries in this stage: Many EDCs such as China, Brazil and urban regions of India.
Stage four
The era of delayed degenerative disease
In AC's, medical advances delay the onset of degenerative diseases and non-communicable diseases and better treatment mitigates against avoidable deaths.
For example, the 'cardiovascular revolution' over the last 40 years has raised life expectancy in AC's considerably from the early 70s to the mid 80s.
Examples of countries in this stage: Most ACs such as Europe and the USA + some Asian countries e.g. Hong Kong. (As of 2021, the average life expectancy in the UK is 81 and in Hong Kong it is 84).
Newer - Stage 5?
Arguably, as we progress into the future, climate change and human activity are increasing the risk of new and emerging infectious, parasitic and zoonotic diseases which could cause countries to go backwards into earlier stages of the epidemiological transition model.