Influence of the media:
opinion polls
their impact on voter's intentions is controversial
1992 - most opinion suggested that support for lab was growing at expense of tories 8% inaccuracy - may have encouraged wavering voters to vote for gov instead of chance lab administration under Kinnock (boomerang theory - come back to bite them)
2015 - predicted close race between lab and con - enabled cons to warn against 'unstable' Lab-SNP coalition
Problems with them:
media and pol parties show a lot of attention to them
not always correct - failed to predict the win of vote leave in eu ref
voters may adjust their intentions according to polls - see example below
if polls show clear outcome - may discourage voters from voting e.g 2001 election, knew lab win, turnout = 59% was 71% in 1997
parties adjust policies based on opinion polls - test public mood
Should the publication of opinion polls be banned into run up of elections?
For
Influence the way people vote and some are inaccurate - misled the public
Against
Infringe on freedom of expression
Polls give valuable info about public ops
Would still be punished abroad and people could access online then
The press:
they claim their role is signif in determining result of ge
E.g the Sun in 1992 consistently ridiculed Kinnock as not being fit to be pm - when Major won they boasted "It's The Sun Wot Won It"
In 1997 - close relations between Blair and Murdoch - sun behind Blair - landslide victory "It Was The Sun That Swung It"
However,
political commentators - John Naughton of the Guardian - the impact of the press is exaggerated
Tory voters are more likely to buy Daily Mail because of its right-wing political views than be influenced by them - selective filter model
Rapid decline in newspaper circulation as people access info on internet
The Sun circulation figures - 1997: 3.8m - 2017: 1.6m
newspaper influence on ge can be seen: media consistently ridiculed Corbyn and lab increased vote share by 9.6% from 2015
TV:
importance of tv has remained consistent in all elections
The BBC, ITV and Sky provide impartial news coverage
Thatcher and the media:
Understood importance and power of the media
Understood power of soundbites in getting to the electorate - you turn if you want to but the lady's not for turning - she wouldn't perform a u-turn on the liberalisation of the economy as unemployment soared
appeared on favourable shows e.g Jimmy Young Show on Radio 2
By end of premiership - her stridency on tv was a electoral liability
Blair and the media:
under Blair 'spin' became dominant force in uk politics
Press secretary Alastair Campbell understood importance of spinning a favourable news story
when on tv Blair was calm, reassuring, statesmanlike e.g tribute to the "people's princess" in 1997
However, failures in Iraq and controversies such as the death of David Kelly a gov scientist and the cash for honours scandal - increasingly undermined New Labour's positive relationship with the media
televised leader debates:
2010
Key issues concerning press influence:
Contribute to agenda setting - identify issues that are signif
influence people on leader's image e.g corbyn
some politicians may change policies to please a newspaper
some believe even though the BBC are supposed to be objective - they show subtle forms of subjective - frozen bbc tv license tax
Influence valence (how people generally view the party- economic competency, trustworthy) - esp in floating voters
Nick Clegg included in debate with Cameron and Brown
gave Lib Dems powerful election platform
Both brown and Cameron admitted 'I agree with Nick' - this boosted Lib Dem campaign
2015
7 party leaders
no clear winner - Farage used his airtime to boost UKIP's support amongst 'left behind' DE voters (semi or unskilled/ unemployed) - UKIP vote share = 12.6% in 2015
2017
May decided not to attend leader debate - worsened her weak image - Amber Rudd took her place
gave others chance to ridicule her without her being able to respond
Social media:
Social media is changing how ge are run
2017 - lab activists used Facebook, twitter to spread lab message across the internet
this is highly effective (pop increasingly gets news online), cheap (helps smaller parties)
All major parties are starting to engage with voters bias social media - Boris Johnson (instagram and snapchat)
one of momentum's campaign films was watched 5.4m times in 2 days
Tory presence was much more resistant (could be explained. with status quo conservatism) - Corbyn had 3x more twitter followers than May - this has changed as Johnson with 4.2m and Starmer with 1.2m
Vilification of Corbyn by newspapers (sponsored terrorism with links to the IRA) mattered less because of his dominance over the internet - Stormzy
Problems: soundbites and tweets (reduces pop overall understanding of parties manifesto and politics) can disporportionaely predict a win for a party e.g twitter in both 2017 & 19 predicted labour landslide (fake news prevalent)
however, more likely that voters aren't necessarily influenced by the polls themselves but the reactions from the pol parties to those polls - as most don't read opinion poll data
use sociology media key terms e.g agenda setting
don't use words bias or unbiased - instead objective and subjective
How do people get their news? (according to Ofcom):
there are increased channels of communication
79% TV
66% internet
49% social media
43% radio
Hypodermic syringe model (direct effects model) can be used in the for agument that the media inflences voter behaviour
Turnout in 2019 ge: 47% 18-24 74% over 65s
42% of 18-24 got news from online sources (YouGov 2017)
Lib Dems ridiculed through coalition esp on tuition fees - built much of 2010 campaign on scrapping tuition fees and then tripled them - lost student support by 42%
Under-dog: vote for them as they feel sorry of them
Band wagon - follow what others are doing - join a movement e.g Clegg-mania, pop amongst students