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MIGRATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE - Coggle Diagram
MIGRATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Introduction
Environmental Refugees
Including pollution, land degradation, droughts and natural disasters.
Up to 25 Million people have been forced out of their homes due to climate change in the mid 1990s
By this point, there were more environmental refugees than war and political refugees.
Studies show that when climate change takes over, there will be 200 million environmental refugees.
As of 1990, the IPCC stated that climate change has had the biggest impact on human migration
This happens because of shoreline erosion, coastal flooding and agricultural disruption.
There will be several disruptions in the monsoon systems and in areas that are largely depended on rainfall. There will be droughts for unknown periods of time and the sea level will rise causing floods.
Future Refugees
By 2050 1 in every 45 people will have been displaced due to environmental changes.
Will exceed current amount global refugees.
About 3% of the population will have been displaced.
Development implications
Urban Flood: Increasing water and food scarcity accelerate the drift between urban and rural areas. Quick and unplanned urbanization has implications for urban welfare and service provision.
Around 1 billion people currently live in slums and poor conditions. In India unplanned urbanization has been associated with the spread of Dengue
Due to reduced rainfall in Asia and Africa, countries have been facing the rise of sea levels enhancing the possibility of natural disasters such as droughts, wildfires, and floods.
Ethnic conflict (political instability): As climate change displacesa the population different groups are forced into closer proximity
If paired with inadequate governing, poverty, and lack of resources, this can cause violence
E.g: In Nigeria, in which desertification prevails, farmers must move into crowded cities, which is believed to be causing competition between pastoralists and said farmers
Hollowed Economies: Mass migration disrupts production systems and undermines domestic markets. Loss of human capital in the form of labor and education investment. Creates limited economic opportunities and contributes to future migration
Health impacts and welfare of forced immigrants
Displacement makes it harder for the provisions of healthcare, allowing diseases to spread. Additionally, forced migrants are at a higher risk of human trafficking, sexual exploitation, and more
E.g: This can spread epidemic diseases. An example is northeastern Brazil, in which the waves of VL (Visceral Leishmaniasis) are associated to climate change migration).
The impacts will also differ by gender, changing dynamics
Climate change and forced migration
Reasons
Climate change will cause population movement by making certain parts of the world much less viable to live
Causing food and water supplies
to become more unreliable
increasing the frequency and severity of floods and
storms
By 2099 the world is expected to be on average between 1.8ºC and 4ºC hotter than it is now.
Large areas are expected to become drier—the proportion of land in constant drought expected to increase from 2 per cent to 10 per cent by 2050.
Many pieces of land will be suffering extreme droughts increasing from 1 percent at present to 30 percent by the end of the 21st century.
In some places this means that rain will be more likely to fall in deluges (washing away top-soil and causing flooding).
Crop yields in central and south Asia could fall by 30 per cent by the middle of the 21st century.
Some fish stocks will migrate towards the poles and colder waters and may deplete as surface water run-off and higher sea temperatures lead to more frequent hazardous algal blooms and coral bleaching.
Statistics
By 2099 the world is expected to be on average between 1.8C and 4C hotter than it is now
the proportion of land
in constant drought expected to increase from 2 per cent to 10 per cent by 2050
the proportion of land suffering extreme drought is predicted to increase from 1 per cent at present to 30 per cent by the end of the 21st century
it is estimated that the South Asian monsoon will become stronger with up to 20 per cent more rain falling on eastern India and Bangladesh by 2050
Predictions
The problem of prediction
Although meteorological technology has developed we are still not able to accurately predict the impacts of climate change on our weather systems
It is still uncertain wether rain patterns will change or if hurricanes will became more fierce and frequent
The mix of meteorological and social aspects makes it harder to make concrete predictions
Predictions are affected by 3 factors
Forced climate migration as population grows and concentrates in more urbanized areas
we have no real base-line figure for current migratory movements
what happens in the second half of the 21st century depends to a great extent on what we do today
The Emission Scenarios of
the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
The Best Case Scenario(B1)
This scenario is the one that is least likely to occur, and is the one with the least impact. This prediction consists of the population reaching 9 billion, and from there declining to 7 billion.
“The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives”.
A crucial aspect is the BRICS countries working to stop their emissions, joining as full members.
By the end of the century, the levels of CO2 stabilize by 600 ppm by end of century, the sea level rises from 18 to 38 cm, and the temperature rises by 1.8 degrees.
An increase in migration would occur, especially rural to urban migration.
The "Bad" Scenario(A1B)
Consists of rapid economic growth, and a population that will peak in the middle of the century, then declining after. The increase of new technologies will also occur.
The world's main sources of energy comes from a balance between fossil intensive and non-fossil energy sources. There would also be an increase in social and cultural interactions between countries.
There would be a large amount of temperature increase, which would lead to a grand amount pf people suffering from water shortages and starvation. Many people would be displaced due to natural disasters.
The "Ugly" Scenario (A1F1)
Similar to the "bad scenario", there would be a rapid economic growth and the population peaking then decreasing. Most energy would come from fossil fuels, and there wouldn't be much action occuring in regards to becoming more sustainable.
The temperature would rise by 4 degrees, and the sea levels by 30 cm. There would be a significant increase of water shortages and floods.
The climate canaries
Four cases have been quite extensively highlighted in the past few years as victims of climate change: the Cartaret islands in Papua New Guinea, the residents of Lateu village in Vanuatu, the relocation of, Shishmaref village on Sarichef island in Alaska and the submergence of Lohachara island in India’s Hooghly river.
In 2005 it was officially decided to evacuate the 1,000 residents of the Carteret Islands, a group of small and low-lying coral atolls administered by Papua New Guinea. this was due to Storm-related erosion and salt water intrusion had rendered the population almost entirely dependent on outside aid.
“the first climate change refugees”
A group of about a hundred residents of Lateu, on the island of Tegua on Vanuatu, were relocated farther inland, again following storm-damage, erosion and salt damage to their original village.
Shishmaref village lies on Sarichef island just north of the Bering strait. A combination of melting permafrost and sea-shore erosion at a rate of up to 3.3 metres a yearhave forced the inhabitants to relocate their village several kilometres to the south.
The resulting need to organize densely packed populations in order to manage scarce resources in restricted areas is not new
migration due to climate change was used in Pastoralist societies, to migrate with their animals from
water source to grazing lands in response to drought
but it is apparent that migration due to environmental
change is not limited to nomadic societies.
When climate stresses coincide with economic or social stresses, the potential for forced migration from rural areas increases significantly.
A good harvest might give the family sufficient resources to send a member to Europe in search of work
Migration, especially when it is a response to slower-acting climate processes
(rather than a sudden climatic event like a hurricane),
The decision to migrate is normally taken at a household level (unless the state is clearing an area) – and relies on individual calculations ofsocial and financial capital.
some who find new homes within their own country tend
to seek refuge in places where they have existing cultural or ethnic ties
Even in the most extreme, unanticipated natural disasters migrants, if they have any choice, tend to travel along pre-existing paths to places where they have family, support networks, historical ties and so on.
Policy Responses
Immigration policy in less-affected countries
Immigration is both a necessary element of global redistributive justice and an important response to climate change; that greenhouse gas emitters should take an allocation of climate migrants in proportion to their historical emissions.
No country other than New Zealand has yet been willing to set a precedent by explicitly accepting climate migrants under a refugee category.
Swedish immigration policy mentions environmental migrants as a special category as a “person in need of protection” who is unable to return to his native country because of an environmental disaster.
Shutting borders in both source and destination countries undermines remittance economies and denies developing countries the benefits of access to the international labour market.
Unless relocated by extreme weather events, their displacement does not trigger any access to financial grants, food aid, tools, shelter, schools or clinics
Adaptation in affected countries
Countries can lower their vulnerability to the effects of climate change and manage the evolution of climate problems with the correct form of adaptation.
An example: Cuba is directly in a hurricane path but suffers less damage than its neighbors due to proper preparation, efficient early warning systems, and widespread storm education.
As climate change progresses, individual countries will be forced to make cost-benefit decisions about what they wish to conserve.
The resources and foresight available to national leaders will determine how much each country is affected by climate change, especially how many people are forced to relocate.
Few countries are preparing for the possibility of large-scale forced climate migration.
The UNFCCC has encouraged the development of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA), which are intended to assist LDCs in identifying and ranking their adaptation priorities in response to climate change.
Heads in the sand
Many bold comments and commitements to give refugee rights, environmental protection and sustainable devolopement
No home for forced climate migrants
International community is focused on mitigating climate change by emitting targets for OECD countries
More attention paid to helping countries adapt to the impacts of climate change
Legal-politician - expand the definition of a refugee under law
Forced migration is being incorporated into current domestic for climate change adaption
OECD willing to open their "immigration gates" to climate migrants
Conclusions
In order to mitigate the effects of climate change, international recognition is important, so that we can have a better understanding of its amplitude and readiness to work on it.
Because of this scenarios, it causes forced migration to happen
Human caused climate change aggravates current environmental, economic and social vulnerabilities. Therefore, it is essential to work on the marginal increased impact of climate change caused by humans.
Several measurements should be taken into considerations so that the problem is recognized and understood.
1- Reduce people's vulnerability to climate change, by moving people away from marginal areas
2- Implementation of development and adaptation policies in countries of forced migrants. Focus on people's susceptibility to climate change, moving away from marginal areas and supporting living conditions that are resilient.
4- Creation of incentives to keep experienced workers in developing countries and to allow them to take advantage of the benefits that fluid labor markets can bring.
3 - more research is required so that the causes and the consequences of climate migration are recognized. A better knowledge of human rights and the sharing of the mandate of population displacements.